March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[tireman4]

Note: Houston/Galveston radar just went down. A technician is troubleshooting the problem. Great timing...

Lovely. Is the Euro upgrade finished?

[wxman57]

Here's the HRRR forecast through 5am tomorrow. That 9-10" band goes right through SW Houston and downtown:

[tireman4]

That, Wxman 57, could stop everything in Houston. Please be careful folks. This is just a heads up.

[ticka1]

Here's the HRRR forecast through 5am tomorrow. That 9-10" band goes right through SW Houston and downtown:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_15.png

thank you wxman57

[Cromagnum]

Got a legend to go with that HRRR map? Wasn't sure what the color scale was relative to everything.

[davidiowx]

Got a legend to go with that HRRR map? Wasn't sure what the color scale was relative to everything.

Right click on the image and open it in a new tab, the legend will appear

[unome]

a bit of a wait

http://flightaware.com/miserymap/

http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KIAH

http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KHOU

[houstonia]

NWSHouston @NWSHouston

At 430 Coast Guard VTS reported 40kt wind gusts between Morgan's Point and Redfish in GLS Bay. Limited visby near Ship Channel/ICW. #houwx

[Andrew]

Models have been slower and slower with the progression of the front/surface low tonight so we could see more impacts into tomorrow morning. We will see if that holds up tonight. The key with this system is somewhere someone is going to get a lot of rain but others might not get nearly as much. Hopefully the hrrr is incorrect or rush hour tomorrow will be nearly impossible.

[wxman57]

Keep in mind that predicting exactly where training echoes (and flooding) will occur is very difficult. Each model is a little different as far as the max rainfall for our area tonight/tomorrow. I may just stay home and work from here in the morning. I'm not heading out if streets are flooding.

[Ptarmigan]

Here's the HRRR forecast through 5am tomorrow. That 9-10" band goes right through SW Houston and downtown:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_15.png

If that forecast model held up, that would be a huge problem.

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, been watching that one.

Also, it's 90F in Cotulla...

That makes things worse.

[Katdaddy]

The first mesoscale convective system moved across Central, N and E TX earlier today skirting N portions of SE TX. Numerous showers and thunderstorms streamed across the Middle and Upper TX Coast as well as most of SE TX without severe weather thankfully but we still have a significant threat after midnight and through Wednesday morning with a severe weather and flooding threat. The SPC continues the enhanced risk across S, S Central, and SE TX. The evening's satellite and radar shows the next storm complex developing along the Rio Grande Valley which will gradually push across the southern half of TX and the coastal waters. Remain weather aware and do not drive through high water tomorrow morning should the Houston-Galveston area take the brunt of the heaviest rains.

[houstonia]

Am I right in seeing that the SPC has moved the enhanced portion south of Houston - more south than it previously was?

[srainhoutx]

Enhanced severe threat remains primarily across areas West of I-45 at this time. The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our SW until 2:00 AM CST.

[Ounce]

Am I right in seeing that the SPC has moved the enhanced portion south of Houston - more south than it previously was?

It's been expanded a bit more to the north and doesn't go to the Rio Grande, since the 5:18 version on page 7. Otherwise, it's just about identical for the Houston area. The Slight area, however, is no longer in Oklahoma.

[Texaspirate11]

So far so good...knock wood.....
I did ask as to whether most of this would stay North and West of us...
In any event, hope everyone stays safe...

[Andrew]

Later we go into the night stronger the LLJ will get, so wherever storms do develop expect the change for strong winds and even a tornado or two.

[ticka1]

what does LLJ mean?

[davidiowx]

what does LLJ mean?

Lower Level Jet stream