October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[unome]

afternoon update from WPC for days 4-5 & 6-7 still looks ok for us, not as much, but better than it's been by far

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48 ... 1445199976

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48 ... 1445199976

7-day total
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1445200099

[cperk]

Our rain chances would have to go down, unless there are other things at play here.

You need to carefully read Jeff's post.

[Paul Robison]

Our rain chances would have to go down, unless there are other things at play here.

You need to carefully read Jeff's post.

Jeff didn't read the fine print:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Mexico, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. This system is likely to remain over land,
and development is therefore not expected. Locally heavy rainfall
is still possible across portions of southeastern Mexico and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg


I see 92L is mindmelding with 97E (EPAC). There's a huge gyre over Central America and it seems like it's almost impossible for a weak low to escape. I think there should be enough moisture left to at least give south Texas some rain in a couple of days as the plume drifts north. The current models are now keeping the moisture even further west. I don't see any outlier solutions that would bring any kind of tropical system into any part of the Gulf over the next seven days, and all the fronts are going to stall and washout well north of central Alabama. The dry October might continue.

[ticka1]

when will all these weather systems start affecting us and potentially merging over se texas?

[Paul Robison]

when will all these weather systems start affecting us and potentially merging over se Texas?

When I figure that out, I'll let you know.

[DoctorMu]

NHC's 2 PM 5-day - I hope WPC doesn't seriously downgrade our rain chances, I'm so sick of watering the lawn...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located inland over southeastern Mexico
just west of Villahermosa is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms, primarily across portions of the Bay of Campeche.
This system is moving slowly westward to west-northwestward, and
development is unlikely since the low is no longer expected to
emerge over water. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been
canceled. This system could still produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

A messy gyre. Perfect.

[srainhoutx]

Another pleasant day is on tap before moisture levels begin to increase Tuesday as the upper low spinning over California/Nevada drops S into Northern Mexico and low level moisture pooling in the Bay of Campeche begins to surge N ahead of the Western longwave trough Wednesday into Thursday. The overnight guidance continues to advertise increasing moisture levels in all levels of the atmosphere Wednesday night into Thursday with showers increasing on Thursday.

Thursday night through Saturday, a Coastal trough organizing along the Lower Texas Coast further increases showers and storm chances continuing through Saturday night and possibly early Sunday before a second and final upper air disturbance ejects NE into the Plains dropping a slow moving frontal boundary offshore. There is no threat of any tropical low in the Western Gulf from this complicated setup. We may see 97E along the Western Coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific organize into a tropical cyclone, but the threat in the Western Gulf no longer is indicated. Still looking for the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday through Saturday as a combination of Eastern Pacific moisture, two upper lows developing at the base of the Western trough and moisture from the Western Gulf combined with favorable lift and a long fetch moisture plume to bring our Region and most of Texas into Western Louisiana several inches of much needed rainfall.

[Rip76]

Sorry I hadn't read Jeff's post before posting, and thank you for the update
S-Rain.

[texoz]

Area of disturbed weather off the southern coast of Yucatan looking a bit more healthy this morning.

[unome]

well the canary's back in the 8am, albeit very low chance & on the bottom of the Yucatan now. I don't see another invest on the ftp site yet, maybe keeping it as 92L, which was last reported as 18.6N, 92.5W? I guess it doesn't matter, as Dr Mu said, "A messy gyre. Perfect." - just bring me some rain

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a weak area
of low pressure. Only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
the potential for this system to interact with land should preclude
significant development as this disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains in
association with this system should spread from the Yucatan
peninsula into southeastern Mexico through at least mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms ... antic.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?MR=1
http://www.hfip.org/products/

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a potential 5+ inches of rainfall with some near 10 inch amounts showing up SW of Houston. Convective feedback issues? Possibly.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Canadian model total precipitation through 168 hour.

[ticka1]

hope this verifies and is not a bust like other times

[Andrew]

I think the biggest issue that needs to be monitored with this system is the phasing between the longwave trough and the coastal shortwave that is expected to move north and then east across the Texas coast. Full ejection of the currently closed low over the four corners region doesn't actually occur until late Sunday when the final shortwave moves east. Meanwhile, the coastal trough (or low depending on what solution you believe) slowly pushes farther north, but due to a slower transition the best upper level dynamics are long gone (according to the gfs). I don't think the GFS is handling the progression of the coastal low/trough well right now, but I do believe those around Matagorda Bay (and points southwest of I-10) will receive the most rain.

[Cromagnum]

Corpus Christi doesn't even have more than 2-3" of rain falling through Saturday. Where are you guys getting these drastically higher numbers?

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the WPC issues a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Day 3 across portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Wildfire briefing from Jeff:

Near critical fire conditions again today leading to additional fire activity over the region. Several fires have developed this afternoon with active efforts in progress on control. Current RH ranges from nearly 50% at the coast to less than 20% inland which is better than the last few days, but critically dry vegetation is resulting in fire starts and spread. Winds are E to ESE at 10mph or less, again which is not overly strong for fire weather conditions, but fire behavior over the last 24 hours has been extreme including some crown runs in the pine canopy in Polk County.

Hidden Pines Fire:
Fire has burned 4582 acres and is now 60% contained. 339 personnel are currently actively working the fire containment lines which have held since Friday including a wildfire team from Florida. A total of 48 homes were lost and 57 other buildings (mainly out buildings and barns). 3 businesses were lost and 5 REC vehicles were burned. Over 375 homes were saved. Heavy rainfall is expected over the entire burn scar Thursday-Saturday which should fully extinguish the fire. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding and debris/mud flows in the hilly terrain due to lack of vegetation to hold the top soil layer in place.

Bastrop County has established a website detailing re-entry and power restoration in the area.

http://www.bastropcountytexas.gov/defau ... e=hpf.main

Texas A&M Forest Service also has a website established detailing all the active fires and the current response.

http://tfsweb.tamu.edu/currentsituation/

The image below shows the 2001 Bastrop Fire Complex burn scar along with the Hidden Pines Fire burn scar:

North Side Fire (Walker County):
200 acres currently burning north of Huntsville and west of Riverside. Fire is 0% contained and burning in heavy ladder fuels and pine canopy. Several homes are threatened north of FM 2628 and west of FM 980. Air support has been requested from ground crews…mainly local FD’s.

Pate Hill Fire (Polk County):
Large wildfire developed late Sunday afternoon in thick pine forest east of Corrigan north of SH 287. Fire exhibited extreme behavior and rapid growth to 445 acres. Air support water drops reported extensive crown fire runs indicating pine canopy has become critically dry. Fire was brought under control overnight and is currently 100% contained with ground crews actively monitoring for rekindle.

Montgomery County (SW):
Fire is actively burning north of Pinehurst off Dobbin-Huffsmith Rd. There is no information on containment. This fire is flanked by several subdivisions to the east to the south of FM 1488.

Kendleton Fire (Fort Bend County):
Fire has burned 5 acres near FM 2919 and Battle Rd. 2 houses are threatened and 1 tractor was lost. No containment information is available.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff (Wildfire in SE Texas):

Significant wildfire burning north of Huntsville.

50 homes are threatened and 4 have been lost. 250 acres have burned and the fire has 0 containment and is advancing quickly on multiple fronts. Local FD’s report extensive burning heights on the fire front with some crowning in pine canopy. Fire operations are defensive on structure protection.

TFS has enroute:

DC-10 heavy air tanker to drop 12,000 gallons of retardant…eta 1.5 hours
2-heavy air tankers
3 helicopters.
US Forest Service also has resources enroute including dozers and ground trucks.

Walker County is requesting immediate evacuation of portions of the Woodlands Hill subdivision.

[Ptarmigan]

A dry October gives way to a wet October.

[srainhoutx]

Moisture levels are slowly increasing this morning particularly offshore where radar detects showers moving toward the Upper Texas Coast. The longwave trough to our West continues to deepen and satellite imagery suggests a closed upper low is organizing and beginning to spin near Arizona. A secondary shortwave is nearing the Pacific Northwest and is expected to drop SE into the Four Corners Region as the first upper low ejects NE into the Plains on Thursday. The overnight global computer guidance continues to advertise a coastal trough/Coastal low along the Lower/Middle Texas Coast as mid level energy from the Eastern Pacific transfers NE with a long fetch moisture plume moving toward Texas from the Eastern Pacific and the Western Gulf. The heavy rainfall event still looks likely Thursday into Saturday night across our Region. Adding to the complex and complicated forecast, 97E currently near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is now expected to become a tropical cyclone making landfall along the West Coast of Mexico spreading its deep tropical moisture NE across Mexico and Texas later this week.