JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Due to the proximity to land and the expected track of this area of distributed weather, if probabilities continue to increase I would not be surprised to see the National Hurricane Center tag this as an INVEST later today or early tomorrow.

[Katdaddy]

The first of many rounds of heavy tropical showers have moved inland along the Upper TX Coast this morning. Already setting at 1.20" for the day. This morning's Houston-Galveston AFD highlights the flood potential quite well

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE THE LIGHTER RAINFALL TOTALS WELL INLAND (1 TO 2 INCHES)
AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST (2 TO 4 INCHES). IF ANY TYPE
OF TRAINING SETS UP...ISOLATED AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST COULD
VERY EASILY GET INTO A 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE WHICH WOULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD
TO FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED.

In addition as Srain posted, some slow tropical development is looking more possible early next this week. Time to be weather aware again for the next 5 days and perhaps more.

[unome]

Due to the proximity to land and the expected track of this area of distributed weather, if probabilities continue to increase I would not be surprised to see the National Hurricane Center tag this as an INVEST later today or early tomorrow.

I hope they do, so we can see more info on tropical websites

[srainhoutx]

INVEST 91L as designated for the area of disturbed tropical weather by the National Hurricane Center.

[srainhoutx]

Very early intensity guidance suggests INVEST 91L may reach Tropical Storm status, but is very early and this is just the first round of intensity and track guidance we can expect throughout the weekend into next week,

[unome]

glad they're getting it up on most sites so quickly, should be on remainder soon

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL912015

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... Invest-91L

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsy ... stinvest=1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#91L

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[brooksgarner]

INVEST 91L as designated for the area of disturbed tropical weather by the National Hurricane Center.

Will be interesting to see if this does close off... Carlos is pretty close so between its regional subsidence and that (dissipating) shear from adjacent upper system, it doesn't look like too much can happen until tomorrow. But, that's quite a cluster of storms...

Thanks for the updates, Steve!

[Texaspirate11]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GALVESTON COUNTY until 10:30 a.m.
I have already received 2 inches of rain and 2 more on the way
TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

[srainhoutx]

MIMIC (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW)) clearly shows how a tropical wave crossing the Caribbean Sea interacted with all the pooling deep tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean Sea and now we have a developing area of convection expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24-36 hour and enter the Southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/13/15 1422Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1415Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SMALL QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CENTERED FROM THE NW
PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY EXTENDING SSW TO JUST E OF LBX. AREA VWPS
WERE SHOWING THAT CONFLUENT INFLOW WAS BEING MAXIMIZED INTO THIS REGION
AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS APPEARS
AS THOUGH CONFLUENT AXIS HAS SHARPENED TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING VERY DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE LIFTING N TOWARDS THE NW GULF COAST WITH IMPLIED INTERSECTING
MOISTURE PLUMES OVER PORTIONS OF W LA/SE TX WITH SOURCE REGIONS FROM THE
E CARIBBEAN AND ALSO FROM THE E PAC WITH POSSIBLE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM
TS CARLOS. 12Z RAOB OUT OF LCH SHOWED A PROFILE WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE REGENERATION WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
CONVECTION/TRAINING. VERY DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYER ON THE SOUNDING ALONG
WITH LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DEEP AREA OF WARM RAIN
PROCESSES TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. GOES SOUNDER CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPSTREAM INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE W GULF HELPING TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF OFFSHORE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING S ALONG ROUGHLY
95W. CONSIDERING THIS BELIEVE LOCALIZED BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTION AND TRAINING TO CONTINUE NEAR THE GALVESTON
BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

[ticka1]

INVEST 91L as designated for the area of disturbed tropical weather by the National Hurricane Center.

that was fast didnt take them long to call as an invest

[Portastorm]

At this point, I think this is an east/southeast Texas event as the bulk of the heavy rain will be with or east of the low center. We may see an inch or so of rain here along I-35 in SCTX but I bet that's it. Understand things could change though. Regardless, you H-town area folks are going to get a lot of rain.

[Texaspirate11]

A flood advisory continues for Harris, Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties until 11:15 a.m

I can verify I now have 5 inches of rain.

[unome]

For Tomorrow (text issued today) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131501
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 13 JUNE 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUNE 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-019

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
INVEST OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24.0N 92.5W FOR 15/12Z. IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS, CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....FIX HURRICANE CARLOS
AT 15/1730Z NEAR 17.5N 103.5W.

$$
WJM

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... gx&wwa=all

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-071-167-201-131830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0083.150613T1527Z-150613T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1023 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN FROM SANTA FE TO LEAGUE CITY AND BAYTOWN IN THE LAST 3
HOURS. STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA PRODUCING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. WFO HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS HAD 1 INCH OF
RAIN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. SOUTHBOUND SIDE OF I-45 AND HIGHWAY
96 HAS WATER OVER THE ROAD IN LEAGUE CITY. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...TEXAS CITY...LA
PORTE...DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...
HITCHCOCK...BEACH CITY...KEMAH...EASTERN CLEAR LAKE...NASSAU BAY...
TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL LAGO...SHOREACRES...CLEAR LAKE SHORES AND
MORGAN`S POINT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2967 9487 2968 9498 2965 9501 2960 9498
2954 9501 2950 9491 2947 9495 2945 9493
2918 9510 2921 9520 2919 9515 2915 9515
2917 9522 2951 9514 2973 9503 2970 9502
2981 9499 2979 9483

$$

39

[unome]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/m ... 06&yr=2015

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1043 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LA & SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131442Z - 131842Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
LOWERING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE BAND WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AT ~10 KTS, PARALLEL TO THE
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN IN THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST. HOURLY RAIN
RATES AS OF LATE HAVE BEEN 1-1.5". TOTALS OVER A BROADENING AREA
OF SOUTHWEST LA ARE IN THE 2-5" RANGE, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8"
PER LCH RADAR ESTIMATES.

WHILE 850 HPA INFLOW IS FORECAST BY RAP GUIDANCE TO WEAKEN TO
20-25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST, THE LINE/BAND'S EASTWARD
MOTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD BASE INFLOW TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION. ALSO OF HELP WOULD BE INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPES
IN ITS PATH, BETWEEN 1000-2500 J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 2-2.2"
RANGE PER GPS INFORMATION, WHICH COULD SUPPORT HOURLY RATES UP TO
2.5" WHERE CELLS TRAIN. OF THE AVAILABLE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE,
ONLY THE 13Z HRRR APPEARS TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM'S PRESENCE,
WHICH INCREASES FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, HENCE THE FOUR HOUR TIMING
AND POSSIBLE CATEGORY. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON 32519179 32089101 31039076 30109084 29889090
29159123 29269145 29469145 29489159 29469176
29449195 29509215 29499240 29779317 30519292
31789284 32339262

[Texaspirate11]

Hope y'all are staying high and dry
Over 6 inches at my home in Nassau Bay.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z deterministic GFS and GEM (Canadian) suggest a Tropical Depression or possibly a weak Tropical Storm making landfall near or just to the E of Matagorda Bay on Tuesday into Wednesday.

[unome]

a snippet from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3017

...The disturbance will push northwestwards over Texas by Tuesday, but it is uncertain how much rain Texas and Louisiana might get from the storm. The European model favors a more westward track into South Texas with lower rainfall totals of about 1 - 2" over Texas on Monday and Tuesday, while the GFS model shows more development of 91L and a track more towards the east, with the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coast getting about 3 - 5" of rain. Given the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity 91L has already built over the Western Caribbean, I support the wetter forecast of the GFS model for Texas and Louisiana....

[srainhoutx]

91L continues to look rather impressive in these early hours of its organization over the Yucatan Peninsula. Banding features are beginning to organize across the N and E quadrants and as the disturbance moves away from the wind shear of Carlos in the Eastern Pacific, it appears conditions may become a bit more favorable for tropical development.