December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Different day...different solution via the OP GFS. I tend to believe a formidable Winter Storm is in the cards for portions of the Colorado Front Range into Kansas on NE into the MidWest. Lighter amounts still may be likely across Northern New Mexico/TX/OK Panhandle as well. I'm also a bit more interested today in the severe threat in the warm sector ahead of that potent front as well.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'd like a February 2011 type cold front that phases with a SFC low over our area.

17-20 degrees and a freaky snow or sleet/ice storm.

Yes, Please.

[weatherguy425]

Different day...different solution via the OP GFS. I tend to believe a formidable Winter Storm is in the cards for portions of the Colorado Front Range into Kansas on NE into the MidWest. Lighter amounts still may be likely across Northern New Mexico/TX/OK Panhandle as well. I'm also a bit more interested today in the severe threat in the warm sector ahead of that potent front as well.

12052012 12Z GFS f96.gif

12052012 12Z GFS f102.gif

12052012 12Z GFS f108.gif

12052012 12Z GFS f114.gif

Will be interesting to see the 12z ECMWF, GFS seems to dig a little more energy than prior two runs, yet has come in warmer; it's definitely still have large issues resolving this system and associated airmass

[wxman57]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

The Canadian certainly has that West Gulf low...

[weatherguy425]

This is off topic for SETX residents, but I also think the GFS is poorlymodeling these disturbances moving south from the intermountain west mid next week

[Portastorm]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

Heh, I thought you were saying that due to the deep freeze it puts most of the CONUS in during the 10-15 day period, including much of Texas.

[srainhoutx]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

Heh, I thought you were saying that due to the deep freeze it puts most of the CONUS in during the 10-15 day period, including much of Texas.

Merry Christmas>>>

[Belmer]

Too bad that gulf low wont be interacting with any cold air for us to produce the "s" word. Gahh, talk about a winter wonderland if it were just 15-20 degrees colder.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

DAAAAAAAAAAAAAMN!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has the West Gulf wave of low pressure as well today for next Wednesday.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

Heh, I thought you were saying that due to the deep freeze it puts most of the CONUS in during the 10-15 day period, including much of Texas.

12Z GFS is a good bit warmer for Houston next week than was the 00Z or 06Z. Unfortunately, I don't believe it. 12Z Euro is almost in through next Wednesday now. I get the full Euro data now. Anything I want to look at in 3hr increments. Can't post any maps here though. See the meteogram below. I think Wed/Thu may be a good bit colder than the 12Z is indicating due to widespread rain from Wed morning to Thu morning.

Note that 12Z Euro high-res just came in through Thu. Has the west Gulf low forming Wed PM vs. AM and rain continuing through Thu AM.

[weatherguy425]

Interesting to note the Euro trying to eject multiple disturbances out of the desert southwest. For west Texas, this combined with the threat of a coastal low. would increase our chances of seeing some 'flurry action' if enough moisture can be drawn this far inland (Lubbock area).

[srainhoutx]

I don't buy the 12Z GFS past about Monday. I think it brings the warm air back too fast and is missing the west Gulf low formation on Wednesday.

Heh, I thought you were saying that due to the deep freeze it puts most of the CONUS in during the 10-15 day period, including much of Texas.

12Z GFS is a good bit warmer for Houston next week than was the 00Z or 06Z. Unfortunately, I don't believe it. 12Z Euro is almost in through next Wednesday now. I get the full Euro data now. Anything I want to look at in 3hr increments. Can't post any maps here though. See the meteogram below. I think Wed/Thu may be a good bit colder than the 12Z is indicating due to widespread rain from Wed morning to Thu morning.

Note that 12Z Euro high-res just came in through Thu. Has the west Gulf low forming Wed PM vs. AM and rain continuing through Thu AM.

GEFS does have several members suggesting the Gulf Low...

[wxman57]

Interesting to note the Euro trying to eject multiple disturbances out of the desert southwest. For west Texas, this combined with the threat of a coastal low. would increase our chances of seeing some 'flurry action' if enough moisture can be drawn this far inland (Lubbock area).

You could see some flurries there in Lubbock Wed afternoon and night. Air aloft should be cold enough.

[weatherguy425]

Certainly not going to trust it, but the GFS has been hinting at a storm system affecting the plains and Texas around the 16th as well. This appears to be the mechanism that GFS uses to bring down quite a bit of cold air.

[Portastorm]

Certainly not going to trust it, but the GFS has been hinting at a storm system affecting the plains and Texas around the 16th as well. This appears to be the mechanism that GFS uses to bring down quite a bit of cold air.

It's not just the GFS, weatherguy425. Take a look at the 12z Euro operational run at 216h and 240h. Looks like a dump of major-league cold air. But yeah, that's far off and much can change.

[weatherguy425]

Certainly not going to trust it, but the GFS has been hinting at a storm system affecting the plains and Texas around the 16th as well. This appears to be the mechanism that GFS uses to bring down quite a bit of cold air.

It's not just the GFS, weatherguy425. Take a look at the 12z Euro operational run at 216h and 240h. Looks like a dump of major-league cold air. But yeah, that's far off and much can change.

Yes. Though the associated storm system appears to be weaker on the euro, just makes me question if it will actually spill south or not. Long time and plenty of "cool air" to go through first.

Edit: must have not loaded hour 240 when I looked at it earlier. Nice to see a disturbance in the 'southern stream'. Certainly could help the cold air move further southward v. Eastward

[Belmer]

Not showing a lot, but hey, it's something close to us. Sigh....
Of course, this is out in lala land.

[nuby3]

if we get snow it'll be when nobody sees it coming. if we see it coming, it won't.