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HCP updated surface charts for Sunday through Thursday of next week...

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weather to turn wet starting today and lasting through the weekend.

Rare mid August cold front extends from OK to north of Lubbock this morning with a pre-frontal trough along the Red River. Large complex of thunderstorms is moving ESE over NE TX and NW LA producing very heavy rainfall. Locally, the nearshore waters are active with showers already suggesting moisture is on the increase over the area.

Front will sag southward today, but remain well to our north. However, deep tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to move inland over the TX coast leading in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Air mass will become unstable by mid to late morning and upper level winds are weakly divergent with no capping. Feel the wetter guidance may win out today given the presence of showers already along the coast currently…usually a good sign in the summer of an active seabreeze.

Factors come together over the weekend for organized thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Slow moving front to the north this morning will sag into the area and combine with deep tropical moisture and disturbances rotating through the deep eastern US trough to produce a good chance of rainfall. Think Saturday will be much like today, with only more coverage of rainfall as moisture increases even more (PW surpassing 2.0 inches). Sunday continues to show the best potential for widespread rainfall…some will be very heavy. Frontal boundary moves slowly across the area from midday-early Monday and slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be possible. Given the deep moist profile, storms will be efficient at producing excessive rainfall in a short period of time. Will broad brush 1-2 inches widespread, but suspect a few locations will get much more. Could see some flooding problems develop if storms train over the same area.


Early next week:

Front looks to slip off the coast Monday-Tuesday leading to drier conditions at least north of I-10. Front and moisture may linger close enough to the coast to keep rain chances in the forecast for those areas. Then all eyes turn to the south and what if anything develops tropically over the weekend into early next week.

Gulf:

Remains of TD # 7 have moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and have shown signs of organization this overnight and this morning. Deep convection has developed over a possible low/mid level center with a few banding features. The system is moving toward the WNW and will be crossing inland along the eastern MX coast later today. Forecast models have come into slightly better agreement on trying to close off some sort of surface low out of a coastal trough along the eastern MX coast late this weekend into early next week. Not sure if they are picking up on the current system, or a trough that will be left behind near the coast. 00Z CMC has come in fairly aggressive showing development off of Brownsville, while the GFS lingers a broad trough/weak surface low along the NE MX coastline for days. Think the current system will move inland, but leave unsettled weather over the western Gulf well into next week and we will have to continue to monitor for any possible development.



With the front likely stalling over the waters on Monday and low pressure over the western Gulf, winds will gradually back and increase out of the NE to ENE early next week. For now will limit rain chances near the coast, but it is possible that the front/any tropical system may back northward and greatly increase mid week rain chances….stay tuned!

Got the grass mowed just in time for showers this morning! Bring on more rain!

P.S. WOW has this place changed! It's been awhile since my last visit, really loving the new changes!!!

Shower/storms near College Station are sagging S and should leave an outflow boundary across the region later this afternoon. The HRRR suggests the sea breeze boundary will become rather active as well. Just a heads up for those with outdoor activities planned for the late afternoon/evening...

Another update from Jeff:

Frontal boundary will move across SE TX on Sunday with periods heavy rainfall.

This morning a frontal boundary was stalled over N TX into W TX with a pre-frontal trough from north of Austin to just north of Huntsville. Radar shows numerous showers/thunderstorms just north of College Station to Huntsville on the tail end of a short wave moving into Louisiana and the lift from the pre-frontal trough. Visible satellite images shows a plume of deep tropical moisture moving NW from the southern and central Gulf of Mexico and within the next 30 minutes to hour a large cumulus field will rapidly develop over the area.

After a few hours of heating this morning, expect the tropical air mass to begin to bubble up and produce showers and thunderstorms along the coastal seabreeze and any southward moving outflow from storms to our north currently. Activity should peak in the early to mid afternoon hours with a break from late afternoon through around midnight.

Front over N TX will get a push southward tonight and begin to cross SE TX on Sunday. Expect showers/thunderstorms to begin to develop at really any point after midnight as the front begins to move into the region. Tropical air mass will continue to support very heavy rainfall rates under the stronger storms and while most areas will pick up 1-2 inches through late Sunday isolated totals of 4-5 inches will be possible.

Front should clear the coast early Monday allowing a rare intrusion of very dry air from the north with dewpoints falling into the lower 60’s to upper 50’s over the area by late Monday. Potential is there for overnight to bottom out in the 60’s for the first time in a long time.

Front will stall over the NW Gulf through the middle of next week and then begin to retreat northward around the latter part of next week. Forecast models show the possibility of the formation of either the remains of Helene or a new surface low near/along the tail end of the front toward the middle of next week. Decaying fronts over the warm Gulf of Mexico this time of year are always some cause for concern as tropical systems do like to form on such features. Model support is weak currently, but the potential is there and we will need to keep an eye on the tail end of the feature next week. For now will keep winds backed out of the NE into the middle of the week with high pressure to our NE sending dry air SW into the area and lower pressures to our south.

I'm actually looking forward to the short but welcome intrusion of drier air. Dewpoints in the Upper 50's to lower 60's are most welcome this time of year. Gonna be an interesting weather week next week though as we continue to watch the Gulf.

Heavy rain in Porter, Montgomery County at the moment.

Small storm passed through Katy about 30 minutes ago. Not much rain, some thunder, but no big deal at all. Now the sun is out and so is my power! This is the second time in two weeks that a summer t-storm has knocked the power out! GRRR...would be very happy if the sun would stay hidden until the lights come back on. I hate no a/c!!!


Spoiled.

biggerbyte wrote:Heavy rain in Porter, Montgomery County at the moment.

We got a nice rain too. Starting to slow down a bit, but my herb garden is quite happy this afternoon. It was nice to sit and watch it rain a while.

I am starting to think my subdivision has a dome over us....2 huge storms headed straight towards us drop a few sprinkles and move on. Been like this all summer Hopefully tomorrow...

I have 1.25 inches of rain in the old rain bucket today, so far. Needless to say my lawn is very happy...

Here in SW Austin, I picked up about a quarter of an inch earlier today in a thundershower. Parts of the Austin metro area (namely Cedar Park and such) received more than an inch. Hoping for more ...

The 00Z WRF is painting a wet and stormy Sunday. That model suggests 1-3 inches of additional rain may be possible with isolated higher amounts before the pre frontal trough moves offshore late Sunday/early Monday.

I hope the south side sees some rain we have had storms go around us the past few weeks. Getting dry in League City

Indeed! Looks to be a rough night as well.

It is quiet on the coast tonight. Anyone know if we can expect storms later tonight?

Georgetown (just north of Austin) received over an inch of rain in 10 minutes, some time between 10:30pm-11pm tonight.

Travis Co and Williamson are under flash flood warning until 12:45am.

Lots of rain just west of I-35 from Waco to San Antonio. More showers are developing northwest of Austin. Can't tell if they'll stay scattered or continue to intensify. Hope just scattered, otherwise they'll pass over areas that have already had 1-3 inches in last 12 hours.

Looks like a very wet period over the next 12-24 hours for large parts of Texas.

Looking at my GRL, there is a rather large cluster of storms moving SSE, just now going through Hempstead. I am seeing lightning off in the distance right now in Hockley. So, looks like a bumpy one tonight!

I haven't seen the radar lit up like this in a long time...

Heads up gang. The CG means business with these storms. Flood Advisories are up and rainfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour are falling. Also Flood Warnings are up for our neighbors in the San Antonio Area.