May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/10/12 1846Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1830Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FOCUS WITH CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF BIG BEND MOVING INTO S
CENTRALTEXAS AND CONVECTION SE TX CENTERED LASALLE TO WILSON COUNTY
WITH ANOMALOUS 500 / PWAT EVENT...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW NOW SSE OF KELP AND SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST. ANALYSIS ANOMALY SHOWS IT A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE 500MB HEIGHTS CLOSE TO THE LOW AND CLOSE TO 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER INTO CENTRAL TX.
THE COMBO OF THIS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND ESPECIALLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO SE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL TX MAKES THIS A
HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND POTENT HVY RAIN EVENT. FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE BAND AS
IT MOVES ACROSS KINNEY TO MENARD COUNTY AND SLAMMIN G INTO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF 1.4"-1.8". OUT AHEAD TRAINING OVERRUNNING CONVECTION OVER
INTERIOR SE TX TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT FROM
LOW AND MAKING THE MOST OF EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADVECTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF SE TX CENTERED VIC OF LASALLE TO
MCMULLEN TO ATASCOSA COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL OF
INCOMING CONVECTIVE BAND FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN THAT CAN FURTHER SATURATE
THE GROUND AND MORE EASILY ALLOW FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-2130Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...FOCUS AREAS WITH CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS S
CENTRAL TX AND GIVING BRIEF BUT EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FF THREAT. OTHER AREA
MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE ON FRONT END BUT DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK END AND
TRAINING/REDEVELOPMENT HELPING TO PRODUICE MORE SUSTAINED HVY RAIN AND
LIKELY FLOODING LASALLE TO MCMULLEN AND WILSON TO KARNES/GONZALES COUNTY
WHERE RAIN RATE CAN REACH 1-2 INCHES PERHR AND 3TO 6 HR AMOUNTS MAY
REACH 4-5". HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 500MB HEIGHTS AND PWAT CONTINUES BUT
WEAKEN A LITTLE THIS PERIOD...SO FF THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
AND BEYOND MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
WEST CENTRAL TO S CENTRAL INTO INTERIOR SE TEXAS. KICKER FOR UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND TROUGH INTO IDAHO AND N NV...SO KICKER IS WEAK AND
SO UPPER LEVEL SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY TOWARD BIG BEND REST OF AFTERNOON.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like it's moving more North than East

Individual storms are moving to the north, but the whole complex is moving eastward.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...

VALID 101907Z - 102100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 271 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY NEWD TO GONZALES COUNTY
IN S TX...INVOF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THIS AREA.
HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLY
VEERING/SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ANOTHER/ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS INDICATED JUST S
OF CORPUS CHRISTI ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
REGION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE...WITH AT LEAST
SOME THREAT THAT STORMS COULD CROSS THE RIVER AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF
S TX. THIS SCENARIO -- ALONG WITH ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE TORNADO
WATCH AREA -- SUGGEST A LONG-LIVED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EPISODES.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2012


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[txflagwaver]

Hopefully we will get some worthwhile rain out of it. Is that area of circulation moving East? If that makes it I can see us getting lots of rain..

[srainhoutx]

HGX will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch shortly

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH S AND SERN
TX...

...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER S CNTRL TX AND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
INTO THE EVENING AS 45-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CONTRIBUTING TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE
LARGEST 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST IN VICINITY OF E-W BOUNDARY WHERE
WINDS ARE BACKED TO ELY AND WHERE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
AS SUPERCELLS TRACK EWD ALONG THIS FEATURE. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL
10% TORNADO PROBABILITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

OTHER MORE LINEAR STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST FROM JUST EAST
OF SAN ANGELO TO EAST OF DEL RIO. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN A
ZONE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT AS THIS ZONE OF DEEPER CONVERGENCE ADVANCES
EAST AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
WARM SECTOR...STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND GROW UPSCALE TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

...SWRN TX...

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN TX WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/10/2012

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...

VALID 102004Z - 102200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
IN/NEAR WW 272.

DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S TX
ATTM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 272 --
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOW E OF SAN ANGELO. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THIS REGION -- N OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- REMAINS LESS
UNSTABLE...WHICH HAS LIMITED OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. STILL...WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION AND
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL CONTINUES.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flash Flood Watch beginning @ 1:00 AM CDT for Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Houston, Jackson, Liberty, Madison, Matagorda, Montgomery, Polk, San Jancinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington, Wharton Counties...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
308 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-110900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0004.120511T0600Z-120511T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
308 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER LOCALIZED AREAS LATER
IN THE DAY.

* GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...UNDERPASSES...BAYOUS..CREEKS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA MAY
EXPECT LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy rains are creeping E toward SE TX...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXC123-149-177-285-102230-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0052.120510T2045Z-120510T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DEWITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-LAVACA-
345 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN GONZALES COUNTY...
FAYETTE COUNTY...
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
GONZALES...FAYETTE...AND NORTHERN PARTS OF DEWITT AND LAVACA
COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...FLATONIA...GONZALES...LA GRANGE...MOULTON...
SCHULENBURG...SHINER...YOAKUM...CHEAPSIDE...CISTERN AND
FAYETTEVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

HGX update has been issued and the 18Z HRRR as well as the WRF/NMM are in agreement regarding later this evening into tomorrow...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY AND RED RIVER. STRONG JET
STREAK ALSO SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS S TX INTO SE TX BY FRI
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
HOUSTON TO AUSTIN WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT
WITH SFC LOW IN W TX MOVING EAST ALONG IT. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO THAT COULD
WORK INTO SE TX LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ALREADY WETTING
THE SOILS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SE TX AFTER 06Z FRI REACHING
HOUSTON AREA FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. POSSIBLE THAT BEHIND THIS
QLCS THAT A BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN REGION COULD DEVELOP AND STORMS
COULD RE- DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE RECOVERS. MODELS
SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM ONE JET STREAK EXITING THE
AREA AND ANOTHER JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A VERY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LOCALIZED EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAIN. ALL THE LIFT COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES...THINK FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
PRUDENT AT THIS TIME AS SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN AN HOUR. OVERALL THINK NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA COULD STAND
TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES BUT ALONG THE COAST COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THINK THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED
5 INCH TOTALS THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT ENDING FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

NOT IGNORING THE SEVERE THREAT...DO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE QLCS. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LINEAR FORCING...THINK MODELS ON TRACK WITH A QLCS
TYPE SYSTEM WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. THINK STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT...SHOULD THERE BE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...COULD HAVE A FEW UPDRAFTS ROTATE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO TOUCH DOWN.

UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SHEARS OUT AS IT DOES LATE
FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANY PIECES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E, NWS Lake Charles issues Flash Flood Watch...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

.A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WILL LEAD
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
110530-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0004.120511T1200Z-120513T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
421 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON AND WEST CAMERON. IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

* DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS...SMALL STREAMS
AND BAYOUS ACROSS THE AREA MAY FLOOD WITH SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE. FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON SOME OF THE LARGER
RIVERS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.

[srainhoutx]

Reports just issued from EWX:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     HAIL             5 NNW COMSTOCK          29.76N 101.20W
05/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   COCORAHS        

0605 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW COMSTOCK          29.76N 101.20W
05/10/2012  E60 MPH          VAL VERDE          TX   COCORAHS        

0620 AM     HAIL             1 N COMSTOCK            29.70N 101.17W
05/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   COCORAHS        

            LARGE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND 

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 ESE EL INDIO          28.48N 100.21W
05/10/2012  M3.20 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            3.20 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT A 2 HOUR PERIOD 

1003 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W BIG WELLS           28.57N  99.60W
05/10/2012  M3.10 INCH       DIMMIT             TX   PUBLIC          

            3.10 INCHES IN ONE HOUR. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AT TIME 
            OF CALL. 

1100 AM     HAIL             1 W DILLEY              28.67N  99.19W
05/10/2012  E1.75 INCH       FRIO               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            REPORTED BY BRISCO UNIT PRISON OFFICIALS 

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N COMSTOCK            29.70N 101.17W
05/10/2012                   VAL VERDE          TX   COCORAHS        

            HEAVY RAINS CAUSED HIGH WATER AND ROAD CLOSURES ON FM 
            1024 AND HWY 163. NUMEROUS AREA DIRT ROADS HAVE BEEN 
            WASHED OUT AS WELL. 

1247 PM     FLOOD            3 N DILLEY              28.71N  99.17W
05/10/2012                   FRIO               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            WATER OVER FEEDER ROADS AT I-35 AND FRIO RIVER NORTH OF 
            DILLEY. ALSO WATER COVERING NUMEROUS ROADWAYS NORTH OF 
            DILLEY. 

0107 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DILLEY                  28.67N  99.17W
05/10/2012  M4.00 INCH       FRIO               TX   PUBLIC          

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING. PEA SIZE HAIL FELL 
            AS WELL. 

0122 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S STOCKDALE           29.22N  97.96W
05/10/2012                   WILSON             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF REPORTED ROOFS DAMAGED...TREES DAMAGED...AND 
            POWERLINES AND POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN JUST SOUTH OF 
            STOCKDALE 

0125 PM     HAIL             3 W KOSCIUSKO           29.10N  97.99W
05/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       WILSON             TX   PUBLIC          

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W KOSCIUSKO           29.10N  97.99W
05/10/2012                   WILSON             TX   PUBLIC          

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POTH                    29.07N  98.08W
05/10/2012                   WILSON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR POTH 
            PROMPTING THE NEED FOR HIGH WATER RESCUES 

0230 PM     HAIL             SMILEY                  29.27N  97.64W
05/10/2012  E0.25 INCH       GONZALES           TX   PUBLIC          

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JOURDANTON              28.91N  98.54W
05/10/2012  M2.46 INCH       ATASCOSA           TX   PUBLIC          

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 N PLEASANTON          29.08N  98.49W
05/10/2012                   ATASCOSA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INDICATES FM 536 NORTH OF 
            PLEASANTON IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS 

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW UVALDE             29.26N  99.83W
05/10/2012                   UVALDE             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED THAT STATE 
            HIGHWAY 55 NORTHWEST OF UVALDE UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE 
            UVALDE-REAL COUNTY LINE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODED LOW 
            WATER CROSSINGS 

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NNE PLEASANTON        29.07N  98.44W
05/10/2012                   ATASCOSA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INDICATES HEAVY RAIN HAS 
            CAUSED LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO FLOOD ALONG FM 1784 

0315 PM     TORNADO          3 NW HOCHHEIM           29.35N  97.33W
05/10/2012                   GONZALES           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            DPS TROOPER WITNESSED SMALL TORNADO WEST OF HWY 183 

0416 PM     FLASH FLOOD      UVALDE                  29.22N  99.78W
05/10/2012                   UVALDE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS FLOODED WATER CROSSINGS ON 
            ROADS THROUGHOUT UVALDE COUNTY. HWY 55 CLOSED FROM NORTH 
            OF UVALDE TO CAMP WOOD...FM 1051 CLOSED...FM 334 FROM 
            BRACKETTVILLE TO INTERSECTION WITH SH 55...HWY 187 
            CLOSED FROM SABINAL TO UTOPIA 

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POTH                    29.07N  98.08W
05/10/2012                   WILSON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            SMALL ROADS CLOSED COUNTY WIDE IN WILSON COUNTY DUE TO 
            FLOODING 

[Andrew]

Really nice rotation from the Mid level low out in west Texas. Later tonight into tomorrow the storms out in Mexico should track this way and develop more with the moist air around here. Main concern is how slow the round of storms are moving. They seem to be inching along.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports a brief tornado touchdown in Weimar (Colorado County) damaging the score board @ Weimer High School and derailing a train. No injuries reported

[CAK]

It appears this system is breaking up as it approaches Houston. Is there a CAP over Houston in play here?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 110018Z - 110115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z...WHICH
WOULD REPLACE PORTIONS OF BOTH TORNADO WATCH 271 AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD INVOF A QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM WEBB COUNTY EWD TOWARD LIVE OAK COUNTY AND NEWD INTO VICTORIA
COUNTY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX
COAST BY LATE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
ADVANCES NWD NEAR AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEBB TO
NUECES COUNTIES...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SFC-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE MORE ISOLATED SFC-BASED
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- E.G. SUPERCELL
APPROACHING ZAPATA COUNTY FROM THE WEST.

LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...AS 00Z CORPUS
CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE RAOBS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY. ALSO...AS BELOW-1-KM-AGL FLOW MAINTAINS AN ELY
COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2 -- HIGHEST INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES -- WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AMIDST THE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
EVOLUTION TOWARD ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TX COAST.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Portastorm]

Intensifying line of convection headed our (Austin) way shortly. I'll let y'all know what we see here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County.

[srainhoutx]

Corpus reports tornado possibly on the ground near Freer

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
724 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ172-190>192-110115-
BLANCO-BURNET-HAYS-TRAVIS-
724 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BLANCO...EXTREME
SOUTHERN BURNET...WESTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
JOHNSON CITY...
HENLY...
PEDERNALES FALLS STATE PARK...
CYPRESS MILL...

[srainhoutx]

It appears this system is breaking up as it approaches Houston. Is there a CAP over Houston in play here?

Our weather hasn't been expected until the overnight hours and into tomorrow. Thing will begin to get rough near midnight I suspect for SE TX.