October 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see
Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….
Team #NeverSummer
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Ptarmigan
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Heavy rain next week? Too early to tell.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:53 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see
Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….
I’ll be there again!
Stratton20
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gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.
Stratton20
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Now the Euro is starting to see a potential stronger fall front at the end of its run, we shall see
Pas_Bon
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:14 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.
It will be an experience you will not forget.
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Ptarmigan
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Shifting pattern in the horizon for the North Pacific? A more El Nino pattern?

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Ptarmigan
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Negative-Warm water around Japan. Cool water off the West Coast of America.
Positive-Cool water around Japan. Warm water off the West Coast of America.

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PDO does have an affect similar to El Nino or La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

We are currently in negative PDO. Strong El Nino can drive PDO into positive territory.
Cpv17
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The ensembles are looking decent for rain as we enter October.
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don
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brazoriatx
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I'm going to San Antonio from the 6th to the 8th...am I going to get rained out?
Stratton20
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Thats a great outlook, and models are coming into better agreement on our first real fall front of the season in the same time frame, the days with 90’s for highs are becoming limited😄its coming
davidiowx
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 4:00 pm the days with 90’s for highs are becoming limited😄its coming
Good riddance!
Stratton20
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I like that 18z GEFS, keeps us cooler than normal for quite some time, changes are definitely coming
Cpv17
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I just want some rain, personally. Don’t really care for too much cooler air to come in. 60’s and 80’s would be fine with me. Anything colder than that and I might start getting sick.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 ill take 80’s for highs all day given the hell like weather we had to deal with , but this winter is definitely looking pretty cold around here, hopefully we get some more opportunities for snow down the road with a strong el nino
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 8:15 pm Cpv17 ill take 80’s for highs all day given the hell like weather we had to deal with , but this winter is definitely looking pretty cold around here, hopefully we get some more opportunities for snow down the road with a strong el nino
Oh heck yeah. I’d take a full blown blizzard lol that’s my ultimate weather fantasy!
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 8:00 pm I just want some rain, personally. Don’t really care for too much cooler air to come in. 60’s and 80’s would be fine with me. Anything colder than that and I might start getting sick.
I will take that too. Certainly better than 90s and 100s.
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