July 2021

[MontgomeryCoWx]

July 20-27 is nothing but 80s on the long-term forecast.

Swoon.

[DoctorMu]

Well the NWS had this to say:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Expect your typical Summertime in Southeast Texas conditions
through this week and early into next week. The complete set
includes persistent light to moderate onshore flow, plenty of
humidity to keep overnight lows warm and hair frizzy, temperatures
around the lower 90s, and scattered showers and thunderstorms
every afternoon and early evening.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Not much in the way of change with today`s long term forecast as
we remain within a typical summertime synoptic pattern as broad
surface high pressure looks poised to remain situated over the
southeastern CONUS through the weekend and into the early part of
next week.

Pretty much sums it up. We'll see what happens. Lots of rain all around me today with thunder and lightning, but not a drop of rain at the house yet.

NWS keeps saying that, but we have another summer storm bearing down on BCS, appearing to hold together.

In fact, let them keep saying that - the reverse mojo has been intact since early January.

Glad you're happy to be in the donut for a change. Let's get that concrete poured!

Had a bit of rain. Now in a donut hole. W/e. Still better than virtually every summer in BCS over the past 30 years.

[Stratton20]

Looks like that tropical wave near the yucatan could help to boost rain chances this weekend , not anticipating any development since we are in an unfavorable phase of the MJO, but stranger things have happened as well since we saw some tropical waves develop last year even in suppressed phases of the MJO, regardless we could be seeing some deeper moisture arrive by friday

[oleander]

Well the NWS had this to say:



Pretty much sums it up. We'll see what happens. Lots of rain all around me today with thunder and lightning, but not a drop of rain at the house yet.

NWS keeps saying that, but we have another summer storm bearing down on BCS, appearing to hold together.

In fact, let them keep saying that - the reverse mojo has been intact since early January.

Glad you're happy to be in the donut for a change. Let's get that concrete poured!

Had a bit of rain. Now in a donut hole. W/e. Still better than virtually every summer in BCS over the past 30 years.

I've been thinking that also and the new arrivals to Texas might think this is a "normal" summer. Little do they know!

[jasons2k]

It’s been so hot and dry the last several years we forgot what “normal” is.
Depends on where you are too. Yesterday, I had a high of 97 and 0.02” of rain. If I were playing a game of “Name that month” I’d probably pick July.
NWS mentioned the Brazos Valley hinterlands may be cooler/wetter in the long-term due to the proximity of the front, which is certainly unusual for late July. Doesn’t really apply down here in the metro area or the rest of SE Texas if it stays up there next week though.

In the near-term NWS has raised chances. It’s a roller coaster. Changes every shift. Still no dig date!

[DoctorMu]

NWS keeps saying that, but we have another summer storm bearing down on BCS, appearing to hold together.

In fact, let them keep saying that - the reverse mojo has been intact since early January.

Glad you're happy to be in the donut for a change. Let's get that concrete poured!

Had a bit of rain. Now in a donut hole. W/e. Still better than virtually every summer in BCS over the past 30 years.

I've been thinking that also and the new arrivals to Texas might think this is a "normal" summer. Little do they know!

A rude awakening! My first summer here, I tried gardenias and other plants that can't deal with massive sun and alkaline soil/water. They were all dead in 1-2 months!

Believe me, this isn't a normal summer at all for the Brazos Valley. By last several years, Jason meant 30.

[Kingwood36]

Let it rain all this week and next weekend till Saturday..I have a gig and won't be able to use my trailer it's getting worked on so I'll be carrying speakers and subs in the back of my truck to needville..hope it doesn't rain!

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see that the CPC has labeled SE Texas under a slight risk for excessive heavy rain fall around the 21st, also may have to watch the tropics, more specifically the Northwestern gulf around the 25th based off a really reliable meteorologist’s youtube video I just watched, his name is POW PONDER, absolutely fantastic meteorologist

[unome]

Not a fan of oppressive summer heat, but this rain is really getting old... 1st time I remember having to lower the mower blade in mid-July ! There is brown spot starting to take hold all over our lawn, it also has turned into a mushroom farm, it never gets a chance to dry out

nearly a foot of rain this last month https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... l&selIdx=1

[DoctorMu]

Seabreeze is not even intimidated by the Aggiedome this July (2021: the 2020 of Texas weather) and has cruised past Navasota again this afternoon. Expecting another brief shower shortly.

[DoctorMu]

Got donut-holed again after a brief shower, but give me this Florida-like 4:30 pm round of briskly moving showers every day or two.

Fake Summer - gotta love it.

CMC and GFS still leaning toward wetter and cooler than the typical Brazos Valley summer through at least July 25...

[Cpv17]

Got donut-holed again after a brief shower, but give me this Florida-like 4:30 pm round of briskly moving showers every day or two.

Fake Summer - gotta love it.

CMC and GFS still leaning toward wetter and cooler than the typical Brazos Valley summer through at least July 25...

I’ve been donut-holed the past few days at my job and at home.

[Katdaddy]

A localized tropical thunderstorm was SE of downtown. The Fuqua Park n Ride was flooded earlier.

[jasons2k]

The latest NWS has raised rain chances a lot over the next 7 days! It's up to 70% tomorrow. Yes, this is definitely unusual. I'm just done with it for awhile.

[DoctorMu]

In a typical year, this late July precip prog would feature a donut hole covering most of Texas.



The Ensembles look pretty similar.

[DoctorMu]

Nothing going on in the tropics besides EPAC fish 'cane Felicia and Invest 99 Fish in the north Atlantic head towards Ireland.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu just give it a few weeks, once we get toward the end of July and beginning of August, the tropics will really wake up, its liking a ticking time bomb, its only a matter of time before the tropics explode here

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu just give it a few weeks, once we get toward the end of July and beginning of August, the tropics will really wake up, its liking a ticking time bomb, its only a matter of time before the tropics explode here

No question that climo and limited shear concoct more west GoM trouble in the last 2/3 of August and September.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu exactly and the potential return of La Nina around that time would only help to amplifiy things as well

[Cromagnum]

We got 2.5 more months of prime Hurricane season left before the fronts come frequently enough to (usually) protect us.