I've been watching that since early this morning, was wondering if it would make it !
https://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3comphtml5.html
[/quote]
That thing is crusin’.
July 2021
https://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3comphtml5.html
[/quote]
That thing is crusin’.
Looking to go just to the East of Houston.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I got a bad feeling August is going to be a concerning month for the tropics, ofc my birthday is on the 29th , every year ive had some sort of bad weather event take place on that date, lets hope mother nature doesn’t destroy us like what she did to Lousiana last season
Will the outflow kiss us with some rain? Probably very close (within a few miles) but no cigar. East around Conroe it's holding together.
Yep. As expected.
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
The gfs has been consistent in showing an easterly wave rolling in the La/Tx region Friday and this coming weekend in varying strengths, especially noted in the 850mb midlevels vort depiction. It is tough to track at 12z but still there. It only increases the seabreeze action really.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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TexasBreeze that wave looked a little more pronounced on the 00z run before it moved in land, 12 z doesnt show much, I know we are in an unfavorable phase of the MJO, but we saw what happened last season even in an unfavorable phase, dont think this wave will do much for our weather though, still 7 days out tho
Lots of SAL out there…
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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18z GFS continues to advertise shower/storm chances every day and a possible return to a wetter weather pattern around 8-9 days from now!
Yes please! Been busy all day and haven’t even had a chance to check the models yet.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:45 pm 18z GFS continues to advertise shower/storm chances every day and a possible return to a wetter weather pattern around 8-9 days from now!
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah! hope this trend continues, ill gladly take a wettern pattern with cool temps
The Canadian model has another front in the area around July 20. That would be three "cold" fronts invading Texas in July. 
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The next wave of storms is approaching Hearne. There's still a Lucy and football feeling, although we did get a brief shower out of the early morning line at home, but not at work.
Gotta be careful what I wish for. There's a wall cloud with some rotation out my office window. lol
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Stratton20
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Noaa has slightly above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook!
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121745
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop as a slow-moving
frontal boundary drifts southward during the day today. A few
storms may become strong, producing gusty winds and/or small hail.
While cigs/visibilities should generally remain within VFR
thresholds during the TAF period, temporarily category reductions
may result from any thunderstorms that impact terminals. In
general, thunderstorm activity is expected to be most frequent
between 18-20Z at CLL/UTS and 21-23Z across the Houston metro.
Activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, with
less precipitation coverage closer to the coast. Overnight,
forecast soundings show the potential for MVFR cigs across the
northern terminals, but otherwise conditions should remain VFR.
Isolated showers/storms are possible once again tomorrow
afternoon.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 445 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/...
SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...
A near stationary boundary has been located just north of Houston
County all night producing showers and thunderstorms. This boundary
will slowly push southward through the morning getting down to the
College Station-Huntsville-Lake Livingston line by sunrise. Gusty
winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but
nothing enough to cause any major issues. The line of precipitation
will be losing its rigor as it pushes further southwards, but some
showers should make its way into Harris County by mid-morning. Like
yesterday, the line will continue to weaken and wash in the
afternoon. However, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain a possibility through the day thanks to
daytime heating and remaining moisture. After sunset, there will
be a lull in precipitation that will last through the night.
Chance of storms returns on Tuesday, but these storms will be
focused mainly south of I-45 along the seabreeze in the afternoon.
High temperatures today will again be in the low to mid 90s, and
then solidly in the mid 90s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will continue
to be in the mid 70s inland and near 80s along the coast.
Fowler
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Moisture should be increasing Wednesday morning with high pressure
to the northeast keeping the SE flow in place. Rain chances should
be mainly diurnally driven along the seabreeze. ECMWF is trending
a little wetter Friday as deeper moisture arrives and the morning
starts off with a bit stronger coastal speed convergence and the
upper shear axis over the area sags south to near the coast. Have
favored this slightly with 40-45 chances on rain Thursday and
Friday as the dominant upper ridge near or north of the 4 Corners
area wobbles northward. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft/weaker
capping occurs before the profile starts to warm back up and
deeper moisture moves well inland and drier air at least in the
900-700mb layer arrives. Will be watching a wave near Cuba fill
and slip westward as this may be the next greater chance of rain
if it doesn`t get shunted into Mexico or fills. Overall
looking for afternoon temperatures close to climo and a little
warmer on mins by a degree or 3. Time for the mosquitos to make a
comeback.
MARINE...
Mostly quiet for the marine areas with 5-10 and 10-15 knots the
primary winds across the area...a little stronger over the Gulf at
night and then stronger in the bays during the afternoon with the
seabreeze expanding inland. Seas 2-4 feet this week. The
variations will probably be in the form of weather - showers and
thunderstorms as the moisture deepens Thursday and Friday expect
to see an increase in coverage.
Tide levels and rip currents should be closer to normal for much
of the week if not all the way into the weekend.
45
HYDROLOGY...
River levels continuing to steadily lower and 4 more have dropped
out of flood since Sunday afternoon. Boling/Strane Park/Sweeny the
only remaining in flood.
TROPICAL...
Quiet if not dusty. The big dust storm that came off of Africa 3
days ago is moving through the Caribbean and could reach SETX
late Friday or Saturday on way out on the east side of tropical
wave.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 91 73 92 / 80 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 75 92 75 92 / 50 20 40 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 80 89 / 20 10 30 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99
FXUS64 KHGX 121745
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop as a slow-moving
frontal boundary drifts southward during the day today. A few
storms may become strong, producing gusty winds and/or small hail.
While cigs/visibilities should generally remain within VFR
thresholds during the TAF period, temporarily category reductions
may result from any thunderstorms that impact terminals. In
general, thunderstorm activity is expected to be most frequent
between 18-20Z at CLL/UTS and 21-23Z across the Houston metro.
Activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, with
less precipitation coverage closer to the coast. Overnight,
forecast soundings show the potential for MVFR cigs across the
northern terminals, but otherwise conditions should remain VFR.
Isolated showers/storms are possible once again tomorrow
afternoon.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 445 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/...
SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...
A near stationary boundary has been located just north of Houston
County all night producing showers and thunderstorms. This boundary
will slowly push southward through the morning getting down to the
College Station-Huntsville-Lake Livingston line by sunrise. Gusty
winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but
nothing enough to cause any major issues. The line of precipitation
will be losing its rigor as it pushes further southwards, but some
showers should make its way into Harris County by mid-morning. Like
yesterday, the line will continue to weaken and wash in the
afternoon. However, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain a possibility through the day thanks to
daytime heating and remaining moisture. After sunset, there will
be a lull in precipitation that will last through the night.
Chance of storms returns on Tuesday, but these storms will be
focused mainly south of I-45 along the seabreeze in the afternoon.
High temperatures today will again be in the low to mid 90s, and
then solidly in the mid 90s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will continue
to be in the mid 70s inland and near 80s along the coast.
Fowler
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Moisture should be increasing Wednesday morning with high pressure
to the northeast keeping the SE flow in place. Rain chances should
be mainly diurnally driven along the seabreeze. ECMWF is trending
a little wetter Friday as deeper moisture arrives and the morning
starts off with a bit stronger coastal speed convergence and the
upper shear axis over the area sags south to near the coast. Have
favored this slightly with 40-45 chances on rain Thursday and
Friday as the dominant upper ridge near or north of the 4 Corners
area wobbles northward. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft/weaker
capping occurs before the profile starts to warm back up and
deeper moisture moves well inland and drier air at least in the
900-700mb layer arrives. Will be watching a wave near Cuba fill
and slip westward as this may be the next greater chance of rain
if it doesn`t get shunted into Mexico or fills. Overall
looking for afternoon temperatures close to climo and a little
warmer on mins by a degree or 3. Time for the mosquitos to make a
comeback.
MARINE...
Mostly quiet for the marine areas with 5-10 and 10-15 knots the
primary winds across the area...a little stronger over the Gulf at
night and then stronger in the bays during the afternoon with the
seabreeze expanding inland. Seas 2-4 feet this week. The
variations will probably be in the form of weather - showers and
thunderstorms as the moisture deepens Thursday and Friday expect
to see an increase in coverage.
Tide levels and rip currents should be closer to normal for much
of the week if not all the way into the weekend.
45
HYDROLOGY...
River levels continuing to steadily lower and 4 more have dropped
out of flood since Sunday afternoon. Boling/Strane Park/Sweeny the
only remaining in flood.
TROPICAL...
Quiet if not dusty. The big dust storm that came off of Africa 3
days ago is moving through the Caribbean and could reach SETX
late Friday or Saturday on way out on the east side of tropical
wave.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 91 73 92 / 80 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 75 92 75 92 / 50 20 40 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 80 89 / 20 10 30 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99