July 2021

[Stratton20]

Looks like the weather pattern is about to get really boring the next 7-10 days , yawn🥱

[Kingwood36]

Looks like the weather pattern is about to get really boring the next 7-10 days , yawn🥱

I prefer this..especially during hurricane season

[jasons2k]

Looks like the weather pattern is about to get really boring the next 7-10 days , yawn🥱

I prefer this..especially during hurricane season

I need a break!! I want my pool to start ASAP! We've been next in line for two weeks now.

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 I prefer rain loo, not flooding rains. but I enjoy cooler weather with that rain

[Cromagnum]

The constant cloud cover and rain cooled air has been nice, but we will have to suffer some heat to dry out unfortunately.

[Ptarmigan]

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations.

HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands and can ultimately run supreme over any of the others when it nails a forecast like that. But the consensus was more farfetched with the surface trough broadening and pulling westward due to upper-level ridging.

I get just as excited still now as I did when I was in my teens lol

The excitement is there for me as well, just in a different form. For example, Harvey. It was evident 2-4 days out Harvey was going to be a potential biblical storm when rainfall totals were spitting out 30-50" run after run, model after model. It was truly hard to believe it would end up verifying at the time because it was truly unprecedented. Before Harvey, the highest rainfall total from a tropical system was TS Amelia back in 1978 that dumped 48" in a small area NW of San Antonio. These models were showing large swaths over much of SETX getting upwards to 50"+. It was mind boggling to know we could get our annual rainfall, plus some, in just 24-36 hours.

Of course, my inner kid is still there and I was more or less eager to witness something so historical right here in my backyard. But I also knew the devastating consequences and impacts that would result in such a catastrophe, should it occur. After I was able to get out of my neighborhood a couple days later, I helped volunteer at a church since so many were in need at that time. I felt like that was the least I could do after my inner excitement. I was living in Pasadena near BW8 and I-45 and remember when a report came in that a station near Hobby was recording 7-8" rainfall rates per hour and remember looking out my front yard and seeing my street fill up like you were filling a bathroom sink up with water. Just can't fathom I'll see something like that again, so as a meteorologist, it's exciting in that aspect, but those emotions are obviously more regarded due to the humanitarian crisis that came with it.

Amelia in 1978 likely dumped more than 48 inches of rain. Probably over 50 inches of rain fell.
https://www.floodsafety.com/texas/USGSd ... ton.htm#19

The June 1899 flood likely had higher rainfall amounts as there was less people to measure rain. The highest is 33 inches.
https://www.floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/patton.htm#2
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0_co_2.xml

[Cpv17]

Back to that typical southeast TX heat and humidity today. Feels gross. Need to find me a wine cooler and a pool.

[DoctorMu]

Just had a brief sea breeze shower. I'll take this. No Death Ridge, please!

90°F and 20-30% chance of rain every day until football season? Where do I sign? That would be a full NC summer.

[Rip76]

Just had a brief sea breeze shower. I'll take this. No Death Ridge, please!

90°F and 20-30% chance of rain every day until football season? Where do I sign? That would be a full NC summer.

Totally in on this.

[don]

The nice thing is that none of the models are showing the Death Ridge over Texas anytime soon.Is it April or July?... LOL

[Stratton20]

Don and hopefully we never have a death ridge over us at any point haha

[DoctorMu]

The nice thing is that none of the models are showing the Death Ridge over Texas anytime soon.Is it April or July?... LOL

Yep, GFS has us with below season temps through the 26th.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yeah for the next 16 days? Not buying that at all lol, we can kiss these below normal temps goodbye, summer is about to start flexing its muscles again

[Cpv17]

The nice thing is that none of the models are showing the Death Ridge over Texas anytime soon.Is it April or July?... LOL

Yep, GFS has us with below season temps through the 26th.

With all the saturated soils that should help to keep the death ridge away. Loving this troughing over Texas. Hopefully this pattern will persist.

[jasons2k]

The nice thing is that none of the models are showing the Death Ridge over Texas anytime soon.Is it April or July?... LOL

Yep, GFS has us with below season temps through the 26th.

With all the saturated soils that should help to keep the death ridge away. Loving this troughing over Texas. Hopefully this pattern will persist.

You don’t want it to persist when the tropics wake-up

[Cpv17]

Yep, GFS has us with below season temps through the 26th.

With all the saturated soils that should help to keep the death ridge away. Loving this troughing over Texas. Hopefully this pattern will persist.

You don’t want it to persist when the tropics wake-up

We’ll probably have a lull in the tropics till late July or early August.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah July usually is pretty quiet in terms of the tropics, excluding elsa of course, August- November could be concerning though as La Nina could be making a return by then

[cperk]

Yeah a third of this month is gone it will be August before we know it and mother nature will flip the switch to active.

[jasons2k]

Yes!! As of yesterday the NWS had a 50% chance of rain every day next week. Now, they have been lowered to 30% most days. I’m hoping for a break for awhile.

Meanwhile, chances for today were also lowered to 30% but that stuff up north is holding together so far, and quickly headed this way…

[unome]

...that stuff up north is holding together so far, and quickly headed this way…

I've been watching that since early this morning, was wondering if it would make it !

https://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3comphtml5.html