Just got an email from the pool company we probably can’t dig tomorrow and to stay tuned
June 2021:
Only .38” here so far today.
Just got an email from the pool company we probably can’t dig tomorrow and to stay tuned
Just got an email from the pool company we probably can’t dig tomorrow and to stay tuned
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4952
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Jasons2k rain chances might go down a bit towards thursday or so, you might have a chance to get your pool dug out by then
I’m glad to see some of you other guys get in on the action today. Haven’t received much of anything around here today except for some sprinkles. Ended up yesterday with a half inch. The heavy rain that was on my doorstep fell apart before it got here and today all the action has been to my south and east.
The 12z Euro just came in with by far its wettest run yet showing anywhere from 3 to 13” across southeast TX.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4952
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yeah I saw that Euro run, definitely really wet
About 2 inches of rain this morning in CLL. Not much action after 1 pm.
Not too hot and actually lower DP post rain cooling.
Rinse and repeat tomorrow.
Definite maybe on the models for a July 4th front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon through Tuesday Evening]...
Heavy rains this morning/early afternoon focused in southeast
Harris/Ft Bend/Brazoria/Galveston/Jackson and coastal Matagorda.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr were common with the clusters/short bands
of storms.
Expecting the current round of storms moving inland to bring some
stability/at least diminish some of the instability so that any
other storms that develop this evening will probably have lower
rainfall rates. As the upper ridging to the northeast weakens
slightly late tonight/early Tuesday and the upper low over S TX
moves west and fills the moisture should continue to stream into
the region and expect that a band of low level convergence should
develop near the coast around sunrise Tuesday and start marching
inland throughout the day. Widespread rainfall expected again
Tuesday and locally heavy rainfall remains a threat. High PW
airmass and an initial focus near the coast should be the main
area that gets the heaviest rains. As the rather limited heating
takes place late morning/early afternoon the storms should spread
inland but could see some redevelopment near the coast. Rain rates
of 2"/hour will be likely which may lead to some additional
isolated areas with street flooding. Loss of heating late Tuesday
should bring a quiet period at least for 4 to 8 hours before
storms redevelop again.
45
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Morning Through Monday]...
Rain chances decrease mid week as upper level ridging builds across
SE Texas. Sufficient low level moisture trapped beneath the ridge
however, will be enough to produce diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours both
Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat to the west
Friday as a strong upper level high over Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Canada pushes the upper level trough over Central CONUS eastward
into the Great Lakes region. A few models attempt to bring a cold
front into Southeast Texas sometime Friday night into Saturday,
while others keep the front to our north or bring in a very weak
boundary only across the northern counties of the CWA. We will have
to wait and see how the front evolves on Friday to get a better idea
of how far south it will push. Regardless, upper level weakness will
increase over Southeast Texas and combine with very good moisture
advection and higher wind speeds aloft to result in decent chances
for showers and thunderstorms over most of the local area Friday
into early next week.
Though the forecast calls for a stormy 4th of July weekend, areas
receiving rain will at least experience high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s...not too shabby for end of June and early
July. Nights will feel damp, muggy, sticky as lows stay in the 70s
inland to low 80s along the coasts while dewpoints rise to the mid
70s.
24
&&
Not too hot and actually lower DP post rain cooling.
Rinse and repeat tomorrow.
Definite maybe on the models for a July 4th front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon through Tuesday Evening]...
Heavy rains this morning/early afternoon focused in southeast
Harris/Ft Bend/Brazoria/Galveston/Jackson and coastal Matagorda.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr were common with the clusters/short bands
of storms.
Expecting the current round of storms moving inland to bring some
stability/at least diminish some of the instability so that any
other storms that develop this evening will probably have lower
rainfall rates. As the upper ridging to the northeast weakens
slightly late tonight/early Tuesday and the upper low over S TX
moves west and fills the moisture should continue to stream into
the region and expect that a band of low level convergence should
develop near the coast around sunrise Tuesday and start marching
inland throughout the day. Widespread rainfall expected again
Tuesday and locally heavy rainfall remains a threat. High PW
airmass and an initial focus near the coast should be the main
area that gets the heaviest rains. As the rather limited heating
takes place late morning/early afternoon the storms should spread
inland but could see some redevelopment near the coast. Rain rates
of 2"/hour will be likely which may lead to some additional
isolated areas with street flooding. Loss of heating late Tuesday
should bring a quiet period at least for 4 to 8 hours before
storms redevelop again.
45
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Morning Through Monday]...
Rain chances decrease mid week as upper level ridging builds across
SE Texas. Sufficient low level moisture trapped beneath the ridge
however, will be enough to produce diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours both
Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat to the west
Friday as a strong upper level high over Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Canada pushes the upper level trough over Central CONUS eastward
into the Great Lakes region. A few models attempt to bring a cold
front into Southeast Texas sometime Friday night into Saturday,
while others keep the front to our north or bring in a very weak
boundary only across the northern counties of the CWA. We will have
to wait and see how the front evolves on Friday to get a better idea
of how far south it will push. Regardless, upper level weakness will
increase over Southeast Texas and combine with very good moisture
advection and higher wind speeds aloft to result in decent chances
for showers and thunderstorms over most of the local area Friday
into early next week.
Though the forecast calls for a stormy 4th of July weekend, areas
receiving rain will at least experience high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s...not too shabby for end of June and early
July. Nights will feel damp, muggy, sticky as lows stay in the 70s
inland to low 80s along the coasts while dewpoints rise to the mid
70s.
24
&&
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
2.5 near Kemah!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4952
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting to note that both the CMC and 18z GFS run indicate the potential for tropical development around the 5th or 6th so roughly 7-9 days from now
Anyone else wanting rain south of I-10. Payday with interest.
- Attachments
-
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Some model support for the newly designated area behind 95l. GFS is bullish into the Gulf, while the Euro picks up on it in the Caribbean but not near as enthused.
Yeah the EPS is on it too but it’s a much weaker signal than the GEFS. The GEFS says watch out Texas but that’s 9-10 days out so it’s just something to watch for now.
Slow start to the widespread rains compared to yesterday. Figured it’d be poppin by now.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Starting to pop now.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 291059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mix of IFR/MVFR cigs north of I-10 should lift toward mid morning.
Shra/tstm coverage should increase along/south of I-10 in the next
several hours, then look for increased coverage across the
remainder of the area late this morning and afternoon. A wide
variety of cigs are anticipated during the day considering precip
coverage, though mainly VFR away from the strongest cells (which
could produce heavy rain, gusty winds & reduced vis). Precip
should taper off fairly quickly this evening. MVFR stratus will
probably redevelop from CXO northward after 8z. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows upper low situated over nw Mexico early
this morning. GOES 16 Total Precip Water product estimating
2.1-2.4" values across SE Tx and surface obs show a well defined
area of speed convergence along a weak trof at the coast. Already
seeing some sct development along and to the south of this zone,
and anticipate an uptick in areal coverage between now and mid
morning across the southern parts of the CWA...expanding further
inland & areawide as temps warm a bit into late morning and this
afternoon. Potential for localized heavy rain in a short time
period remains a possibility, but it should be just that -
localized (with southern parts of the CWA invof srn convergent
zone more favored region). Precip should taper off fairly quickly
this evening.
Moisture availability trends town a touch tonight and Wed (PW`s down
to 1.9-2.1") and weak mid level ridging builds in from the ne.
Combination of both should allow for less precip coverage than we
had Mon & today esp nrn 1/3 of the area. However, still anticipate
most areas south of Brenham-Livingston line to see fairly good
chances of some diurnally driven precip. 47
LONG TERM [Thursday Morning Through Monday Night]...
With a gentle mid-level high pressure in place on Thursday and
ample low-level moisture, a more summer-like pattern of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will return. This mid-level high
pressure will begin to retreat back to the west on Friday as a
trough over the Great Lakes deepens and pushes further south. This
trough will drag a cold front into TX this weekend which is
expected to stall across our CWA and dissipate along our coast
early next week. Through the holiday weekend and into early next
week, showers and thunderstorms will be focused along this frontal
boundary. Rain chances will range from 50-80% and peak in the
late afternoon each day.
Rain and cloud cover will help keep daytime high temperatures
near 90 through the long term, but cloud cover overnight and
onshore flow will keep overnight lows in a very muggy mid-70s.
KBL
MARINE...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
today. Winds outside of this convection are southeast at 15 to 20
knots, and therefore a Small Craft Exercise Caution will be in
place until at least tonight. However, winds and seas will be
higher in and around these showers and storms today. Onshore flow
will persist through the weekend as a cold front approaches the
coast on Saturday. Therefore, rain chances are expected each day
through the weekend with activity peaking in the late afternoon
and evening.
Strong rip currents are expected again today along our beaches due
to moderate onshore flow. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard
and monitor weather conditions closely while at the beach.
TROPICAL...
Tropical Depression Danny continues to push inland on the Georgia
coast and will continue to push west and dissipate on land. The
hurricane center is also monitoring an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the East Atlantic. As it moves west-
northwest at 15 to 20 mph, it has a 40% chance of development in
the next 5 days. Global deterministic and ensemble models still
vary widely on its path after 5 days. Therefore, our office is
monitoring it, but does not have high confidence on impacts for
southeast TX this far out. Once again, this is a reminder that we
are in the middle of hurricane season and best practice is to
always stay up to date with the latest forecasts from our office
and the hurricane center. Make sure you have a plan in place and
plenty of hurricane supplies.
KBL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 89 75 92 / 70 30 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 76 92 / 70 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 81 89 / 70 50 60 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 291059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mix of IFR/MVFR cigs north of I-10 should lift toward mid morning.
Shra/tstm coverage should increase along/south of I-10 in the next
several hours, then look for increased coverage across the
remainder of the area late this morning and afternoon. A wide
variety of cigs are anticipated during the day considering precip
coverage, though mainly VFR away from the strongest cells (which
could produce heavy rain, gusty winds & reduced vis). Precip
should taper off fairly quickly this evening. MVFR stratus will
probably redevelop from CXO northward after 8z. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows upper low situated over nw Mexico early
this morning. GOES 16 Total Precip Water product estimating
2.1-2.4" values across SE Tx and surface obs show a well defined
area of speed convergence along a weak trof at the coast. Already
seeing some sct development along and to the south of this zone,
and anticipate an uptick in areal coverage between now and mid
morning across the southern parts of the CWA...expanding further
inland & areawide as temps warm a bit into late morning and this
afternoon. Potential for localized heavy rain in a short time
period remains a possibility, but it should be just that -
localized (with southern parts of the CWA invof srn convergent
zone more favored region). Precip should taper off fairly quickly
this evening.
Moisture availability trends town a touch tonight and Wed (PW`s down
to 1.9-2.1") and weak mid level ridging builds in from the ne.
Combination of both should allow for less precip coverage than we
had Mon & today esp nrn 1/3 of the area. However, still anticipate
most areas south of Brenham-Livingston line to see fairly good
chances of some diurnally driven precip. 47
LONG TERM [Thursday Morning Through Monday Night]...
With a gentle mid-level high pressure in place on Thursday and
ample low-level moisture, a more summer-like pattern of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will return. This mid-level high
pressure will begin to retreat back to the west on Friday as a
trough over the Great Lakes deepens and pushes further south. This
trough will drag a cold front into TX this weekend which is
expected to stall across our CWA and dissipate along our coast
early next week. Through the holiday weekend and into early next
week, showers and thunderstorms will be focused along this frontal
boundary. Rain chances will range from 50-80% and peak in the
late afternoon each day.
Rain and cloud cover will help keep daytime high temperatures
near 90 through the long term, but cloud cover overnight and
onshore flow will keep overnight lows in a very muggy mid-70s.
KBL
MARINE...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
today. Winds outside of this convection are southeast at 15 to 20
knots, and therefore a Small Craft Exercise Caution will be in
place until at least tonight. However, winds and seas will be
higher in and around these showers and storms today. Onshore flow
will persist through the weekend as a cold front approaches the
coast on Saturday. Therefore, rain chances are expected each day
through the weekend with activity peaking in the late afternoon
and evening.
Strong rip currents are expected again today along our beaches due
to moderate onshore flow. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard
and monitor weather conditions closely while at the beach.
TROPICAL...
Tropical Depression Danny continues to push inland on the Georgia
coast and will continue to push west and dissipate on land. The
hurricane center is also monitoring an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the East Atlantic. As it moves west-
northwest at 15 to 20 mph, it has a 40% chance of development in
the next 5 days. Global deterministic and ensemble models still
vary widely on its path after 5 days. Therefore, our office is
monitoring it, but does not have high confidence on impacts for
southeast TX this far out. Once again, this is a reminder that we
are in the middle of hurricane season and best practice is to
always stay up to date with the latest forecasts from our office
and the hurricane center. Make sure you have a plan in place and
plenty of hurricane supplies.
KBL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 89 75 92 / 70 30 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 76 92 / 70 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 81 89 / 70 50 60 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Rain is moving-in here now.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4952
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting to note that their is a huge blow up of convection/ storms in the southern gulf, not sure if those are just general storms or if its a weak feature to watch