June 2021:

[Cpv17]

We will need to watch the tropics. If this pattern persists with a weakness over Texas and ridging to our north then we could be in the line of fire. The two waves that are exiting the African coast both need to be watched.

[djmike]

Ready for a SOLID coverage. These popcorn showers is for the birds. Need a solid blanket of rain over us.

[Rip76]

Ready for a SOLID coverage. These popcorn showers is for the birds. Need a solid blanket of rain over us.

Look at gulf radar coming in. Looks pretty solid.

[jasons2k]

Happens all the time…

[srainhoutx]

Happens all the time…

Not sure why you are moaning. You have a pool dig scheduled. You should be grateful!

[jasons2k]

Happens all the time…

Not sure why you are moaning. You have a pool dig scheduled. You should be grateful!

I am grateful actually- it’s just an illustration.

Yeah gonna be an interesting week.

[Cpv17]

Someone asked me on Storm2k for a favor. They’re trying to create an account on here but need help. Could one of the admins please contact me so we can help this person out?

Thanks.

[Cpv17]

Nice:

[Rip76]

Looking at radar, we’re gonna get popped tonight.

[869MB]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Areas affected...upper TX coast into southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280827Z - 281330Z

Summary...The potential for flash flooding will be increasing
along parts of the upper TX coast into southwestern LA through
14Z. Localized rainfall rates of over 3 in/hr will be possible
along with 6-hr totals of 3-6 inches.

Discussion...Loops of regional radar and satellite imagery through
08Z showed a low to mid-level vorticity max located just off the
upper TX coast. This feature was embedded within a very moist
environment with precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.2 inches
per recent GPS data. The southwestern side of low-level ridging
over the eastern U.S. was allowing for an increased 850-700 mb
height gradient over LA into far eastern TX, supporting locally
stronger winds of 15 to 25 kt between Houston and Lake Charles.
Low level winds are stronger than the 850-300 mb mean wind but the
two vectors are more favorably aligned from near Galveston Bay and
eastward to support training of heavy rain. This was observed
earlier across western Cameron Parish where KLCH estimates showed
one hour rainfall between 3 and 4 inches ending 0730Z. Veering
winds will support the training potential to extend west of
Galveston Bay by 12Z.

SPC mesoanalysis and RAP analysis data from 07Z showed a gradient
in instability along the Coastal Plain with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE
just offshore of the coast transitioning to less than 1000 J/kg
inland. Low level onshore flow will continue to support locally
heavy rainfall within about 75 miles of the coast. Vertical shear
is lacking for organization, but the potential for narrow axes of
heavy rain is present and will likely increase across parts of the
upper TX coast into southwestern LA as the low to mid-level
vorticity center moves inland over the next 3-6 hours. While not
expected to be widespread across the discussion area, localized to
scattered heavy rainfall rates, possibly in excess of 3 in/hr, are
expected to increase the threat for flash flooding through sunrise.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30789442 30759387 30659352 30479316 30259281
30029252 29849244 29589242 29409248 29379286
29279339 28589501 28559595 28709625 29129641
29609640 30159610 30479559 30739490

[cperk]

2.80 inches this morning.

[don]

Its pouring outside, rainfall rates are really high.

[Cromagnum]

Finally got a few rounds of heavy stuff overnight. Woke up to see standing water in the yard.

[don]

Storms are training over the metro right now.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
837 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

TXC201-281645-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0104.210628T1337Z-210628T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
837 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 837 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Rainfall rates of near 2 inches per hour will be possible
with these storms and that can quickly overwhelm the local
drainage especially in flood prone areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, La Porte, Deer Park, South Houston, Bellaire, West
University Place, Seabrook, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Jersey
Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Fourth Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Midtown Houston,
Downtown Houston, Memorial Park, Greater Third Ward and University
Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
743 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

TXC039-157-481-281445-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0103.210628T1243Z-210628T1445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-Wharton TX-
743 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 945 AM CDT.

* At 743 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This is causing urban and small stream flooding.
Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rosenberg, Needville, East Bernard, Fulshear, Pleak, Fairchilds,
Beasley, Kendleton, Orchard, Cumings and southeastern Weston Lakes.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

[don]

My street is flooded again which is now the 3rd time in less than 2 weeks....

[Cromagnum]

3.3 inches in Rosharon overnight. Still raining though not as heavily at the moment.

[869MB]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 190 miles
east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the center.
However, any additional increase in organization of the thunderstorm
activity would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical
depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the
system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia
by this evening. If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm
warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few
inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia
and southern South Carolina through Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[869MB]

[869MB]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0399
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Areas affected...Southeast TX & Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281257Z - 281857Z

Summary...Backbuilding and training convection should allow for
hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts to 5". Flash
flooding is possible, especially in urban areas.

Discussion...A surface low has been apparent in the surface
observations southwest of Houston over the past few hours, which
along with convergent troughs to its east and southwest are
helping to focus convection across Southeast TX. Additional
activity is waiting in the wings across the far northwest Gulf of
Mexico, poised to move inland. A pair of upper level lows are
retrograding across far northeast Mexico and North Florida at this
time, enhancing divergence across the region. Precipitable water
values of 2.1"+ lie near and west of Lake Charles, LA per their
12z sounding and RAP analyses. Inflow at 850 hPa is out of the
southeast at 15-30 knots per VAD wind profiles, slightly exceeding
the mean 850-400 hPa wind. Effective bulk shear is near, but a
hair under, 25 knots per SPC mesoanalyses. ML CAPE upstream is
generally 1500-2000 J/kg.

RAP guidance shows the 850 hPa inflow becoming increasingly
convergent/focused with time into the Upper TX coast, which should
enhance the heavy rain threat/flash flood risk. Heavy rainfall
could act to reinforce the boundary near the coast and possibly
keep the risk in the coastal plains/swamps, though the guidance
does surge the instability inland by early this afternoon. The
ingredients available support hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local
amounts to 5" -- generally supported by the mesoscale guidance --
which would be more problematic in urban areas. Other than in
small pockets, area rainfall has been generally below average over
the past couple weeks. Flash flooding is considered possible.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30879384 29629248 29699349 29469435 28859533
28539642 29919619 30759548

[Stratton20]

Latest 12z CMC has been consistently showing some possible tropical development around days 7-9 or the 5th-6th timeframe, none of the other models are showing anything right now but the CMC has been showing possible development in the past 4-5 runs in a row