June 2021:

[Stormlover2020]

I believe this pattern is all la/tax for the next 2-3 weeks

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a massive Bermuda high set up for the first half of July.

[Texaspirate11]

4th of July looks like a wash out too

[cperk]

I’m liking this rainy pattern.

[redneckweather]

105 to 110 heat index days mixed in with good summertime rain to break it up. Sounds like the perfect summer to me.

[Cromagnum]

I’m liking this rainy pattern.

Reminds me of summers around here as a kid. Hot and steamy, but with a quite a few pop up thunderstorms.

[Cpv17]

I’m liking this rainy pattern.

Reminds me of summers around here as a kid. Hot and steamy, but with a quite a few pop up thunderstorms.

Yep! Reminds me of that as well.

[Stratton20]

Latest 12z GFS has trended drier for the nezt 7-10 days!! This is very good news! Hope this drying trend continues!!

[cperk]

Latest 12z GFS has trended drier for the nezt 7-10 days!! This is very good news! Hope this drying trend continues!!

Be careful what you wish for.

[Stratton20]

Cpwro na im good I hope the forecast trends drier, ive lived in some of the most extreme weather places on earth, from the hot and very dry Arabian Desert, to the bitter cold and wet mountainous regions of Norway, a dry forecast would be A okay with me

[Rip76]

I demand we get some rain this weekend.

[weatherguy425]

I wouldn’t be worried about the perceived lack of rain; mentioned with the 12Z run of the GFS. It is still wet and the overall wetter weather pattern is consistent across all models and ensemble models.

[Stratton20]

Even if it still rains on the 4th im still shooting my fireworks, mother nature doesn’t dictate how we enjoy our holiday

[don]

Latest 12z GFS has trended drier for the nezt 7-10 days!! This is very good news! Hope this drying trend continues!!

The GFS has not trended drier at all. For the past few days the GFS has been pretty persistent on widespread rainfall amounts of 2-6+ inches over the area.The few runs that showed excessive rainfall amounts of over a foot should be discounted as outliers and thrown out.As the overall trend has been a broad brush of 2-5 inch totals with localized areas getting up to 6+ inches.Which is pretty high for summer without getting a tropical system., but the biggest issue is not the rainfall totals but the fact that some localized areas could get most of that rainfall from just one storm cell in one sitting in a short amount of time.As precipitable waters will be high enough for rainfall rates as high as 3+ inches an hour at times.

While localized street flooding is the main concern over the next week.We will have to watch the 4th of July weekend for the possibility of more organized convection as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes into the region and stalls, and weak disturbances pass through from the northwest flow aloft.As by that time grounds will be saturated and there could be some issues with rivers/creeks/bayous if more organized convection were to materialized next weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Well Don hope the GFS is wrong here, but regardless Im going to enjoy the 4th of July outside!

[DoctorMu]

Latest 12z GFS has trended drier for the nezt 7-10 days!! This is very good news! Hope this drying trend continues!!

The GFS has not trended drier at all. For the past few days the GFS has been pretty persistent on widespread rainfall amounts of 2-6+ inches over the area.The few runs that showed excessive rainfall amounts of over a foot should be discounted as outliers and thrown out.As the overall trend has been a broad brush of 2-5 inch totals with localized areas getting up to 6+ inches.Which is pretty high for summer without getting a tropical system., but the biggest issue is not the rainfall totals but the fact that some localized areas could get most of that rainfall from just one storm cell in one sitting in a short amount of time.As precipitable waters will be high enough for rainfall rates as high as 3+ inches an hour at times.

While localized street flooding is the main concern over the next week.We will have to watch the 4th of July weekend for the possibility of more organized convection as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes into the region and stalls, and weak disturbances pass through from the northwest flow aloft.As by that time grounds will be saturated and there could be some issues with rivers/creeks/bayous if more organized convection were to materialized next weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

That's almost as much rain as Panama City has had this week.

[DoctorMu]

Latest 12z GFS has trended drier for the nezt 7-10 days!! This is very good news! Hope this drying trend continues!!

The GFS has not trended drier at all. For the past few days the GFS has been pretty persistent on widespread rainfall amounts of 2-6+ inches over the area.The few runs that showed excessive rainfall amounts of over a foot should be discounted as outliers and thrown out.As the overall trend has been a broad brush of 2-5 inch totals with localized areas getting up to 6+ inches.Which is pretty high for summer without getting a tropical system., but the biggest issue is not the rainfall totals but the fact that some localized areas could get most of that rainfall from just one storm cell in one sitting in a short amount of time.As precipitable waters will be high enough for rainfall rates as high as 3+ inches an hour at times.

While localized street flooding is the main concern over the next week.We will have to watch the 4th of July weekend for the possibility of more organized convection as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes into the region and stalls, and weak disturbances pass through from the northwest flow aloft.As by that time grounds will be saturated and there could be some issues with rivers/creeks/bayous if more organized convection were to materialized next weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

I certainly hope College Station gets that 2.8 inches of dry weather!

My daughter still is conflicted that I want clouds all summer!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yeah except im in Panama City beach not Panama City itself, we got maybe 3 inches of rain Sunday-Tuesday, but the rest of the week was partly cloudy and hot

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu yeah except im in Panama City beach not Panama City itself, we got maybe 3 inches of rain Sunday-Tuesday, but the rest of the week was partly cloudy and hot

ummmm...Tyndall AFB is on the beach.

[DoctorMu]

A little seabreeze North of I-10 and east of I-45 FWIW. Conroe and North Cleveland seeing some action.