June 2021:

[DoctorMu]

I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

You’ve been here for 17 years .

Side note. The sky is looking hazy already.

The Long Con.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 will be initiated at 4 PM.

[tireman4]

This will be interesting as the days unfold...


Side Note: If Steve is a troll, I must be one too..LOL

[DoctorMu]

If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

[jasons2k]

If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

Sometimes the best thing to do is print out the 500mb NAM charts and do old-fashioned analysis with a pencil

[DoctorMu]

If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

Sometimes the best thing to do is print out the 500mb NAM charts and do old-fashioned analysis with a pencil

Yep. NEXT!

[Rip76]

Is the 500mb used to determine steering/motion?

[Cpv17]

Well the 12z Euro just came in clutch! Has some decent rains around here in 5-6 days from now. Hope it doesn’t lose it.

[jasons2k]

Is the 500mb used to determine steering/motion?

Yep, it’s a great place to start when trying to determine the mean steering flow.

[Rip76]

[Cromagnum]

Blast furnace engage for us.

[Dls2010r]

GEEZ!!!!!!!!!

[Rip76]

Blast furnace engage for us.

Yes sir. Get ready for a week of Hades.
Really a bummer for weather lovers. Well, not the ones in Pensacola.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner a while ago:

At 400pm a tropical storm warning has been issued for the US Gulf coast from Intracoastal City, LA to the FL/AL state line.

Both satellite derived wind products and the early afternoon USAF mission confirm that 92L has a broad low pressure center over the south-central Gulf of Mexico with winds generally in the 25 kt range. The current organizational structure is that below what is classifiable as a tropical cyclone, however global models continue to insist that a tropical cyclone will form in the next 12-24 hours and make landfall along the central US Gulf coast. Given the proximity of the system to landfall on the US Gulf coast, the potential tropical cyclone advisories along with tropical storm warnings have been issued with this system. Besides now an official product from the National Hurricane Center, there has been little change to the forecasting thinking today and the good model consensus continues to take the developing tropical system well east of SE TX with most of the weather and impacts focused east of the center toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Any impacts to SE TX are expected to be minimal with some increase in coastal tides (likely below) levels that would cause any significant coastal flooding and an increase in showers near and east of Galveston Bay.

[Cpv17]

I’ve pretty much been over this system since Saturday. Like Jason said, the writings been on the table with this one for a while already. No sense in talking about it anymore. Looking for the next potential system that could give us some excitement!

[jasons2k]

Well that 60% chance of rain “likely” on Tuesday has been lowered to a 40% “chance” now. Still a long way to go on that one.

[snowman65]

sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?

[Stratton20]

Wel tbh Id rather us take a hit from a hurricane than Lousiana, these folks dont need anymore tropical trouble, but still I dont think those people wanted us to get hit, maybe they just wanted some rain?

[Rip76]

sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?

A Hurricane no way.
A minimum tropical storm, I’ll take.

[Cpv17]

sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?

A Hurricane no way.
A minimum tropical storm, I’ll take.

Exactly! Tropical storm Bill was a great example a few years ago. I took basically a direct hit from it. Got about 8” of rain and 40-50mph winds. It was awesome!