June 2021:

[Stormlover2020]

I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year they didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out

[Texaspirate11]

I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year the didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out

You are right cant jump with every model gotta watch and wait

[Kingwood36]

This isn't gospel...it hasn't even made it to the gulf yet...wait and watch

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 no the disturbance is in the gulf now, but the GFS is starting to come in line with what the Euro is showing, thats why this gets our attention

[Stormlover2020]

Until we have a center models will flip

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

[Kingwood36]

Until we have a center models will flip

Bingo

[Stratton20]

Still at 40% pretty surprised the NHC hasnt upped development chances even more

[DoctorMu]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

Just about to post this. No initiation yet, so we know nothing really.

Models:
Euro - weak TS/TD ; landfall Galveston
GFS - TD crawls ashore in LA
CMC - TD aiming at LaTx.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs is stronger then a depression

[Stratton20]

00z Intensity Guidance on tropical tidbits gets really interesting

[Harveyvsallison]

00z Intensity Guidance on tropical tidbits gets really interesting

I was just about to mention those ! Also the HWRF and HMON hurricane models both develop 92L into a tropical storm within 24 hours !

[Stratton20]

Harveyvsallison we will have to see what happens but considering what im seeing from intensity guidance, we definitely gotta be on the look out for what happens in the next 3 days

[Harveyvsallison]

Harveyvsallison we will have to see what happens but considering what im seeing from intensity guidance, we definitely gotta be on the look out for what happens in the next 3 days

Also I’m thinking if this gets its act together quickly it’ll be able to fend off dry air better later down the road. Just keep watching intensity models and satellite

[Stratton20]

Harveyvsallison definitely agree about that , tonights GFS, CMC, ICON and Euro runs are going to be interesting to see what they day

[don]

0Z Intensity models.

[Harveyvsallison]

Harveyvsallison definitely agree about that , tonights GFS, CMC, ICON and Euro runs are going to be interesting to see what they day

Yes I will be staying up for the 00Z suites ! I’m interested in the next batch of euro ensembles !!!! Watch the ensembles

[Harveyvsallison]

Things will be really interesting come Wednesday

[Stratton20]

Harveyvsallison I definitely am staying up as well I usually got to bed around 2 am so just after the Euro model comes out

[TexasMetBlake]

With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain will be east of the center.