Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[Mr. T]

Sorry T., but Bonnie is not dead. I invite everyone to take a look at what she is doing this morning. Storm track may stay the course, though a couple of things could alter that, the biggest surprise is that she is in no hurry to go away. The ULL should keep her from swinging toward Texas, but that same Low may be far enough away now to actually ventilate Bonnie. Don't be surprised if she is a storm again before landfall.

The ULL isn't far enough away to ventilate. I see an area of blowup convection on its NW side being blown away from its center thanks to the large flow blowing out of the SE from the ULL. LA will see some thunderstorms tommorow and that's about it... I can't believe there is a state of emergency in LA for summertime thunderstorms... My goodness

[vci_guy2003]

Bonnie has to be the fugliest looking biaatch in the history of the gulf of Mexico tropics. God bless her soul, I hope she finds source real soon and closes that GAP real fast.

[biggerbyte]

I don't think I have ever seen an ULL so large. It is also more stubborn than Bonnie. Gosh, just think of what our girl could do if big brother wasn't around. This weak system we have now might have been a Texas system if not for big brother.

[Mr. T]

I don't think I have ever seen an ULL so large. It is also more stubborn than Bonnie. Gosh, just think of what our girl could do if big brother wasn't around. This weak system we have now might have been a Texas system if not for big brother.

This large ULL has definitely helped with taking big bites out of the ridge and allowing this system to move so far north. If not for that, this storm would have probably headed our way.

[Scott747]

The new experimental version of the HWRF rocks! Spent a good hour when I had time today checking it out.

The model haters will have no use for it while those that follow and know how to apply models will love it.

[biggerbyte]

I don't think I have ever seen an ULL so large. It is also more stubborn than Bonnie. Gosh, just think of what our girl could do if big brother wasn't around. This weak system we have now might have been a Texas system if not for big brother.

This large ULL has definitely helped with taking big bites out of the ridge and allowing this system to move so far north. If not for that, this storm would have probably headed our way.

Yes, and it crept up on us. I agree that our forecast for this system would have completely verified were it not for this monster ULL. We got lucky that Bonnie had some enemies tougher than her. What a perfect setup to spare Texas. I doubt we could be so lucky again this season. I hope folks don't get bored with the changes and uncertainties in this process and take their eye off the ball. As you know, each situation is different. So to assume anything can be deadly.

Well, I am off to bed. LA can have this little cranky girl. It's still heading that general direction.

Night!!!

[srainhoutx]

WTNT33 KNHC 241136
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[sleetstorm]

I do not know about the any of you, but it looks as though Bonnie is attempting to become better organized. I saw more tropical showers and thunderstorms try to encircle her on the Rainbow Satellite Image.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 241435
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.

BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.1N 88.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[sleetstorm]

So, had that ULL not been to the west of Bonnie, that storm would probably have strengthened much more and much more quickly?

[wxman57]

So, had that ULL not been to the west of Bonnie, that storm would probably have strengthened much more and much more quickly?

Yes, the upper low didn't get out of Bonnie's way quickly enough. It produced (and is producing) quite a bit of southerly shear across Bonnie, ripping it apart. The weak swirl of clouds marking Bonnie's low will probably survive to reach the coast.

[wxman57]

The weak swirl has now become totally disassociated from all shower activity and is drifting westward. Chances of regeneration are near zero. This one doesn't even remotely qualify for depression status now. Oh, and the latest model guidance header says "Disturbance Bonnie". It's done.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1806 UTC SAT JUL 24 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100724 1800 UTC

[Paul]

Bonnie is dead......models were right in that respect. Well some of them were....