June 2021:

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Cpv17]

The EPS seems to have came in a bit more bullish overnight.

[don]

Yep they sure have,a decent increase in ensemble support in the 0z runs.

[DoctorMu]

The lemonade stand opens next week.

[oleander]

As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information

Yes! I can't imagine the combined years of experience our members have. What an incredible resource!

[don]

This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

[Cpv17]

This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

If it’s sheared and goes towards the upper TX coast we probably won’t get much of anything around here and could help support drier and hotter conditions for much of Texas.

[don]

Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.

[Cpv17]

Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.

Yeah I’ve seen some systems in June have hardly any convection near the center. Like you said it depends how much shear there is. Sometimes in June shear can be pretty bad in the Gulf.

[Kingwood36]

Wxmn57 is good..but alot of times he is wrong also...just saying..

[Stratton20]

Ita pretty much impossible to say if this system will be sheared or not, we have seen quite a few times with systems overcoming shear and obviously the opposite as well.

[AtascocitaWX]

Storms in Bay of Campeche seems to always have a Crazy nature to them

[jasons2k]

It’s still June so I’d bet on shear being a factor. There is a trough on the models that induce shear and send most of it towards the east. Pretty textbook for a June system.

[Stratton20]

Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard

[Cpv17]

Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard

If you want some rain the best case scenario would be for this to come in around the middle to south TX coast with a track towards San Antonio.

[Stratton20]

CPv17 thats what I kinda hope will happen( not wanting anyone to get hit hard though) my backyard dries up extremely fast, and it would definitely be nice to gets some more rain, however since this is tropical moisture Im hoping that nothing excessive occurs but no promise on that, also get ready yall, all the fear mongering people are probably going crazy seeing that yellow hased area in the BOC

[don]

The 12z GFS sends the storm to the Alabama/Florida panhandle region.Because it consolidates the system further east over the Yucatan instead of over the BOC. Like i mentioned yesterday where the system forms will have big implications on where a landfall may occur.

[Stratton20]

Don I think the GFS is an outlier at the moment as its been really inconsistent, not buying its mode runs at all

[Cpv17]

The GFS is all over the place.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 thats exactly why im not buying into the GFS, its been too inconsistent in its pst model runs, EURO has been very consistent as well as the CMC,