June 2021:

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep ive been watching that, definitely going to be an interesting week ahead in the weather department

[DoctorMu]

Today is only the 5th 90° day of the year for College Station. Sign of heat to come, unfortunately.

Hoping for some lemonade and clouds out of the E. Carrib gyre by next weekend. Sahara dust is on its way as well across the Atlantic.

Long-term GFS sniffing out a couple of back door fronts later in June. Most of the model forecast precip in the next 2 weeks is of the backdoor front variety. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

Today is only the 5th 90° day of the year for College Station. Sign of heat to come, unfortunately.

Hoping for some lemonade and clouds out of the E. Carrib gyre by next weekend. Sahara dust is on its way as well across the Atlantic.

Yeah, the CPC is really favoring the southeast based on their latest precipitation forecast. I guess they’re siding with the GFS.

[Stratton20]

No way are we getting any sort of front row n june, the GFS is in lala land

[DoctorMu]

Precip chances have been elevated by NWS to 70% tomorrow in CLL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
257 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
The showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning have moved
east of the region leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light
southerly winds. Cannot out rule that some additional isolated to
scattered precipitation develops late this afternoon along the
seabreeze, but coverage should be fairly limited. The atmosphere
remains well saturated, so locally heavy rain may happen where a
thunderstorm pops up. The increased sunshine combined with dewpoints
in the mid 70s has led to a fairly hot day across the area with heat
index values climbing into the mid 90s with some areas even getting
into the triple digits.

Synoptically speaking for today, the upper level low that has been
over Texas the past several days will be lifting to the northeast
overnight tonight into Monday. However, shortwave troughs will still
be rounding the underside of low that will pass through our region.
The first passed through earlier today which triggered this
morning`s precipitation, and the next one will be arriving Monday
morning. This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to areas
mainly north of I-10 through noon. If this shortwave is faster, then
expect mainly showers with some isolated thunderstorms through the
mid morning. However, if this shortwave is a little bit slower
allowing for more daytime heating to destabilize the atmosphere then
expect more thunderstorms with some of them becoming strong. The
area that would have the best potential for some stronger
thunderstorms will be the extreme northern counties (Houston,
Trinity, Polk). The SPC has placed this area in a Marginal Risk for
tomorrow. Another shortwave will move through in the late evening
into the overnight continuing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the northern half of the CWA. Like today, the
atmosphere will remain well saturated so any thunderstorms that do
form may be able to produce a quick inch or two of rain. Normally
this wouldn`t be too much of an issue, but the ground remains very
saturated from the past several weeks of rain. The WPC has placed
areas north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall with
portions of Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties in a Slight Risk.

Monday is looking to be another muggy day across Southeast Texas.
High temperatures will again climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
with heat index values approaching triple digits across the area.
Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will be mild with
temperatures bottoming out only in the mid to upper 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
Mid/upper ridge will expand northward and eastward during the week
which should bring typical summer-like wx to the region. Though one
can`t totally rule out an isolated diurnally driven shra or two,
subsidence looks like it`ll be pretty tough to overcome. High
temps should be in the lower 90s inland/upper 80s beaches during
the work week. With all the rain we`ve had the past few weeks and
wet ground in place, things will feel plenty muggy & uncomfortable
(though not heat advsy material).

Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge begins a slow retreat to
the west possibly allowing for some embedded upper impulses in
the n/ne flow aloft to pass thru. Attm, it`s unclear if the
moisture profile will be supportive for anything more than a
mention of low end POPs. Also, an elongated sfc high pressure area
possibly situated off the nw/ncntl Gulf coast may allow for
slightly higher temps, maybe mid 90s, this weekend should a more
prevalent llvl swly flow take shape. 47

&&

[Rip76]

I’m getting an ARIZONA DESERT feeling around here.

[Cpv17]

It’s always a sad day when you realize such a great weather pattern is probably about to come to an end. Well at least for me anyway lol back to boring weather for who knows how long.

Sigh

Oh well I need some dry weather anyway so I can actually get the grass cut the right way.

Who knows what that CAG will do. Way too far out to know.

[Stratton20]

Im pretty confident that CAG is going to spawn up something in the gulf, active MJO phase moving in by this weekend, low wind shear and very warm gulf temps, im pretty sure we will have to deal with a storm in the gulf

[oleander]

I’m getting an ARIZONA DESERT feeling around here.

" let sleeping dogs lie" just came to mind.

[Cpv17]

Im pretty confident that CAG is going to spawn up something in the gulf, active MJO phase moving in by this weekend, low wind shear and very warm gulf temps, im pretty sure we will have to deal with a storm in the gulf

There will possibly be a trough over the northeast at the time the storm may be developing. It if develops on the faster side of modeling and the trough is there then it could get pulled towards the central or eastern Gulf by the trough but if it develops a little slower then it’ll miss its exit and could potentially head more our way. I think it’s going to come down to if that trough is there or not, how strong that trough is, and how fast or slow the CAG develops. That’s my early take on it. Like you though I’m pretty confident we’ll have some sort of storm in the Gulf in about 8 to 11 days.

[Stratton20]

Yeah im confident something develops, its just where it goes is the huge question mark. Knowing our luck with all the rains we have gotten watch it come straight for texas haha but yeah that trough is a key player in this

[Cpv17]

Yeah im confident something develops, its just where it goes is the huge question mark. Knowing our luck with all the rains we have gotten watch it come straight for texas haha but yeah that trough is a key player in this

Yeah it also depends on the strength of the system as a stronger storm is more likely to feel the effects of troughs/ridges around them.

[Stratton20]

Absolutely, well this weekend sure will be an interesting one, somewhere along the Gulf Coast might get hit by a storm or possibly even a hurricane, definitely bot ruling one out if it forms

[DoctorMu]

I’m getting an ARIZONA DESERT feeling around here.

" let sleeping dogs lie" just came to mind.

"or sleeping Kat lie..."

[869MB]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Cpv17]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

And so it begins! Stewart is usually pretty aggressive. I think he’s the most aggressive forecaster the NHC has.

[Stratton20]

Here we go! With an active mjo phase coming soon this thing has some potential to become a strong system.

[Cromagnum]

Just returned from an awesome offshore fishing trip. Zero rain, and only slight chop on the waters. Me and 5 others hauled in close to 200 lbs of red snapper with most of them being 20 or so lbs each. May not get to do that again for a while.

[Texaspirate11]

Lord I hope it doesn't smack into Louisiana - Florida really needs the rain....

[jasons2k]

Just returned from an awesome offshore fishing trip. Zero rain, and only slight chop on the waters. Me and 5 others hauled in close to 200 lbs of red snapper with most of them being 20 or so lbs each. May not get to do that again for a while.

Awesome!! I’ll take mine grilled on the half shell