Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[wxman57]

Did I miss anything today?

I'm glad to see the models have settled down a bit and picked Louisiana as the lucky recipient of Bonnie. But I'm not 100% sure the track won't shift west again. Wind shear does look to be somewhat of an issue for the next 3 days, so maybe it'll only be a moderate TS at landfall. I'm estimating chances it may reach Cat 1 at 40%, but that's speculation. Just a short drop-off in shear would be all that's needed for quick strengthening to a hurricane.

I see the Euro is still kind of iffy with a closed circulation across the NW Gulf. Hard to tell what it does with the storm. Could be SW LA, could be SE TX. But it doesn't even have a closed low. Canadian likes the upper TX coast, but it has a poor track record with ... tracks.

Oh well, 12 hours looking at this storm and I'm ready to relax. Time to take a look at the Tour de France.

[ronyan]

It looks like what is now Bonnie has been improving in organization pretty quickly over the past few hours.

[ticka1]

What I don't get is folks downplaying TS Bonnie. Didn't this storm look like death warmed over last night. We wake up at 5 a.m. this morning and find a LLC at the surface - then by 11 a.m. advisory we have TD3 - the afternoon goes by and then at 5:00 p.m. - we get TS Bonnie. I don't know about you but that's impressive tropical formation if you as me. Yeah I know its not a cat 5 with stadium effect eyewall but the progress of from a tropical system.

As with this system and ever other system that has or will develop - you have to keep an eye on them and make sure you are prepared. For us here in SE Texas smirking at a tropical storm just makes one bring up TS Allision and TS Claudette.

Okay just my two cents - now back to watching mother nature do her thing! I would say her finest - but her finest to me is winter snow storms here in SE Texas.

[wxdata]

WTNT33 KNHC 230013
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND DISTANCE

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 45 MILES...
70 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

[Ptarmigan]

The second named storm of the season and it is July. We should keep an eye on it.

[biggerbyte]

Nothing has changed since earlier, except that we have Bonnie. Some folks "elsewhere" are fighting over the landfall and strength. Bottom line is, no matter what direction Bonnie is moving now, she can not, and will not punch through the ridge. Her westward track will enhance and continue. The question now is how far west will the ridge build in. Is it over LA, or over Texas... This storm, especially if she grows, should ride along the western edge then move out. It is going to come down to one place or the other.

[Andrew]

Nothing has changed since earlier, except that we have Bonnie. Some folks "elsewhere" are fighting over the landfall and strength. Bottom line is, no matter what direction Bonnie is moving now, she can not, and will not punch through the ridge. Her westward track will enhance and continue. The question now is how far west will the ridge build in. Is it over LA, or over Texas... This storm, especially if she grows, should ride along the western edge then move out. It is going to come down to one place or the other.

I'm really getting annoyed of that "elsewhere" and think the mods need to do something about it.....


Anyways latest steering current and sat loop indicate that this storm should start making that western turn any time now:






http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Bonnie is gaining some deep convection as we speak and it will be interesting to watch if the organization continues overnight. Also another key thing to keep an eye on when watching this storm through IR is to not always track the deepest convection because in weak storms that is not always where the center is. Recon is really the only way to track a storm of this caliber during the night time.

Shear too seems to be on the decrease as the ULL moves off to the west and SW and right now should be when Bonnie SHOULD intensify.

[biggerbyte]

I have said it before. This forum is THE one to be a part of. No BS...Just the facts.
Plus we are not so constricted. Our comments can be one liners, and nothing has to be so philosophical.

Anyway.. Bonnie is coming to the western/north western gulf. How much will the stubborn one grow.

BB

[redfish1]

there is another forum saying that there is no threat to texas...what do you all think??

[biggerbyte]

I say BS.. We don't know that yet.

[ticka1]

I think thats BS because for the simple fact - its not even in the GOM yet. The ridge is strong - Bonnie isn't going to slice and dice it and go north- she will follow the ridge and where ever that is....my thoughts are rockport texas to Grande Isle LA.

Its too early to pinpoint landfall......and up to three or four days from landfall.

[sambucol]

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true?

[ticka1]

http://irc.hurricanehollow.org/

Join us in stormchat!!!!

[Scott747]

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true?

The NHC has been clear in their discussions that they feel it will begin to take a more WNW heading as it comes under the influence of the H.

Snippet from the 4pm disco -

THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

[sambucol]

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true?

The NHC has been clear in their discussions that they feel it will begin to take a more WNW heading as it comes under the influence of the H.

Snippet from the 4pm disco -

THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

Will the NHC shift the track to the west on the next update?

[Scott747]

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true?

The NHC has been clear in their discussions that they feel it will begin to take a more WNW heading as it comes under the influence of the H.

Snippet from the 4pm disco -

THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

Will the NHC shift the track to the west on the next update?

Not looking that way. Latest guidance appears that they may even shift it slightly to the E. If they were to move it more to the W expect some input on why they are going against the modeling.

Either way we could still have adjustments to the track going forward. I was hoping for a NOAA flight today to build more confidence with the 0z model runs. Have to wait another day.

[Andrew]

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true?

The NHC has been clear in their discussions that they feel it will begin to take a more WNW heading as it comes under the influence of the H.

Snippet from the 4pm disco -

THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

Will the NHC shift the track to the west on the next update?

No need at this point unless it moves straight west and or the models move west (which does not seem apparent at this time)

[biggerbyte]

Bonnie is getting knocked about. We are just going to need to watch her. It is impossible to say anything for certain, except that pertaining to the ridge. It has truly been a wacky tropical season so far.

[Scott747]

They shifted the track to the E. Even a bit more than I anticipated with the mention of a further shift being needed.

Have to think that they have some upper level data that is building some confidence.

[Andrew]

Based on IR and MIMIC if the LLC is under the convection then it looks like this storm could be taking a western turn. Tomm morning sat should be very telling.