May 2021:

[Stratton20]

Bro WTF this is only 2 days out. Very interesting we definitely gotta wstch this now

[don]

There is a good mid level circulation right now with the system, and based on the model support out of nowhere today, i think it really is trying to make a run at development as we speak. I wonder if a special tropical advisory will be needed this evening by the NHC.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[djmike]

Wow. Mother Nature just threw in that curve ball. Its definitely plausible. Doesnt STX/MX usually get a storm right around kick off season? I remember last year Brownsville got struck right from the start.

[Texashawk]

NHC’s latest TWO shows nothing doing in the Gulf.

[don]

NHC’s latest TWO shows nothing doing in the Gulf.

I know that's why i wonder if they will have to issue a special statement later this evening if the tends continue,wouldn't be the first time this has happened.

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt be shocked if this ends up becoming a low end tropical storm, definitely am seeing aome good mid level rotation as wel just like DON said

[Rip76]

Crazy

[Scott747]

There really wasn't enough time to mention it based on the 12z runs. Likely they wait till this evening if warranted.

[Stratton20]

I domt think ive ever seen models all jump on board with a potential tropical system in one run and one day, absolutely crazy

[Cpv17]

I wouldnt be shocked if this ends up becoming a low end tropical storm, definitely am seeing aome good mid level rotation as wel just like DON said

That’s exactly what the Euro is showing. Probably a 40 to 50mph tropical storm when it makes landfall. Pressure probably somewhere around 1004 to 1006mb. We should see 91L here shortly.

[Stratton20]

And juat when we thought thw flooding rains were done Mother Nature says “ But wait theres more’” this would be really bad if this system forms, a tropical depression or weak storm would only help to enhance heavy rain fall, definitely a very concerning potential situation

[djmike]

River flooding. My work is closing down beginning tomorrow and deploying our ride out team. I work at a plant in beaumont. Neches/Sabine River is expected to rise above flood stage and engulf the whole area. Lets just add more moisture and a TC into the mix. Great! Heads up also, I can see them closing the border too to LA. I10 is usually cut off when this happens.

[redneckweather]

Well then...

[Cromagnum]

No mention by the NHC in the 1PM update.

[don]

The EURO has the system developing overnight tonight into a storm, looking at satellite i think it seems pretty obvious at this point its atleast trying to develop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Stratton20]

Yeah Don I definitely think this showing some signs of organization, seems like convection is trying to fire around the area of cyclonic spin, definitely wouldnt be shocked to see if the NHC mentions this later

[Rip76]

What's the sheer currently like in the Western GOM?

[Kingwood36]

We don't need this if it's going to be a sloopy rain maker..this could cause major problems

[Stratton20]

Rip76 Wind Shaer is high 30-35 knots, however this system is currently in a pocket of moderate to Low shear, so it definitely has a chance to devlope

[redneckweather]

Tropical systems have developed in that area with worse conditions. Satellite loop looking pretty darn good.