tireman4 wrote:I agree, but I would still take a watch and see attitude. I think ( to quote Dan and Wxman57) we should just go over our hurricane preparedness lists and make sure everything is ready.
Yes I read wxman's post and was a little shocked on the bluntness of it.
What did they say? Thanks!
He said "Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today."
Deep convection is starting to wrap around while the center continues to have a NW movement to it but it shouldn't be long before it bumps into the ridge sending it west to west-northwest. Paul posted this link but as you can see the ridge is right on TD3's tail:
Andrew wrote:He said "Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today."
Always subject to change though but the new center placement had a effect even for the long range.
Yea I just personally believe in the long term it won't effect the track. I think the NHC shifted it to the east more because more models shifted to the east.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS
EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
Always subject to change though but the new center placement had a effect even for the long range.
Yea I just personally believe in the long term it won't effect the track. I think the NHC shifted it to the east more because more models shifted to the east.
The overall movement didn't really change that much. It was the center reformation that was the main influence.
Still seems a bit to far E for me (and most everyone knows I don't have any IMBY influence) and think closer to the Tx/La. border eventually. Will be much more confident with another full set of NOAA data points.
Always subject to change though but the new center placement had a effect even for the long range.
Yea I just personally believe in the long term it won't effect the track. I think the NHC shifted it to the east more because more models shifted to the east.
The overall movement didn't really change that much. It was the center reformation that was the main influence.
Still seems a bit to far E for me (and most everyone knows I don't have any IMBY influence) and think closer to the Tx/La. border eventually. Will be much more confident with another full set of NOAA data points.[/quote]
Yea maybe so I was thinking the border too but we shall see.
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I know, Tyler... Isn't it just silly. It will be Texas or LA. I think those folks are simply trying to follow the
models flip flopping around without a general understanding of how it all works. That ridge is just as stubborn as TD3.
A path not unlike Rita is possible, as is one like Ike. A Katrina path looks to be a bit too far east.
tireman4 wrote:Boy many posters on Storm2k are really buying into the "East east...going east scenario". The system is not in the Gulf and boy oh boy.
It is always going to be a east vs. west war on that board. You can tell the people who think it is moving west and will hit the west gulf usually are residents of the west gulf and the people who see it going north into the eastern gulf are the residents of the eastern gulf and that really frustrates me because it makes it hard for everyone to get accurate information.
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You mused last night about why the globals were not strengthening it much and I mentioned it could be how they were interpreting the ULL.
Avlia touched on it in the disco -
NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
sambucol wrote:Has TD 3 even hit the ridge yet? If not, once it does, won't that turn it back to a more westward direction?
I don't think that TD 3 has quite reach the ridge. I do believe it is feeling the effects of shear. I do suspect once the influence of the ridge is felt, a W to WNW motion would likely follow. Regardless of the shift in track guidance, everyone should be watchful and expect changes. As we have seen and repeated many times in the past, things can and often do change.
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tireman4 wrote:Boy many posters on Storm2k are really buying into the "East east...going east scenario". The system is not in the Gulf and boy oh boy.
It is always going to be a east vs. west war on that board. You can tell the people who think it is moving west and will hit the west gulf usually are residents of the west gulf and the people who see it going north into the eastern gulf are the residents of the eastern gulf and that really frustrates me because it makes it hard for everyone to get accurate information.
Yeah but to type in information, totally contradicting the pro mets, just to push thier cause, I just do not get it. I mean, who really wants a storm. I do not. I suppose there are some who really do.
sambucol wrote:Has TD 3 even hit the ridge yet? If not, once it does, won't that turn it back to a more westward direction?
I don't think that TD 3 has quite reach the ridge. I do believe it is feeling the effects of shear. I do suspect once the influence of the ridge is felt, a W to WNW motion would likely follow. Regardless of the shift in track guidance, everyone should be watchful and expect changes. As we have seen and repeated many times in the past, things can and often do change.
I agree. Until TD 3 bumps into the ridge, we should watch carefully.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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