February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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davidiowx wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:18 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:18 pm
davidiowx wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:16 pm With the next system anticipated to have heavier precip, is that due to the low being closer to the coast, which will also result in rain for those south of I-10? How cool would it be if that brought some snow too..
Yeah it needs to be topped off with a foot of snow for all of southeast TX lol
One can dream!
We would need the low to be further away from the coast in order to get the Coastal counties to freezing I believe..someone correct me if I'm wrong
Cromagnum
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My driveway is nearly totally melted despite 22 degrees. Guess the full sun is doing its job.
megsy
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:43 pm My driveway is nearly totally melted despite 22 degrees. Guess the full sun is doing its job.
Ours is starting the melt too and we are at 19 and it’s legit large flake flurries falling at the moment. So bizarre.
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don
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I love how powdery the snow is looks like we got about 1 inch of snow,on top of the sleet that fell,in the heights so maybe around 2 inches total.There seems to be some confusion on last nights precip type.At least where im located the precip was mainly coming down as 50% sleet and 50% small snowflakes and flurries at the same time.The snow did verify its just that for most of the area it was never 100% snow,it was a constant mix. As the snow growth zone in the atmosphere was moist enough for snowflakes to form but due to the warm layer only about half of the flakes were able to make it to the surface without melting and refreezing into sleet.BTW due to the snow and sleet starting to melt in the streets there's going to be a TON of black ice tomorrow morning...

I'm a little concerned about us being colder than what the models indicate for Wednesday.Models didn't latch on to the ice/snow across Louisiana and Mississippi until 24-28 hours before the storm.As they underestimated the penetration of the shallow cold air mass.Places north of I-10 may have icing issues,and possibly significant ones.As there will be more moisture available with Wednesdays system. I also dont like the trend of the mesoscale models that are showing precip beginning earlier around evening tomorrow where temperatures will be below freezing along and north of 59,and may not get above freezing until Wednesday afternoon at the earliest,which leaves plenty of time for significant icing to accumulate.
Last edited by don on Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Cpv17
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Man it sure did snow quite a bit more on the northern side of the viewing area. Some of the pictures I’m seeing around Montgomery County are real nice! Puts my weak dusting to shame lol
TXWeatherMan
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm Man it sure did snow quite a bit more on the northern side of the viewing area. Some of the pictures I’m seeing around Montgomery County are real nice! Puts my weak dusting to shame lol
Yeah I got about 2-3 inches near Lake Conroe
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DoctorMu
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Concerned about next ice storm and power grid. ERCOT has trouble bringing down units quickly enough causing AC frequency to go low. Coupled with slow natural gas flow at low temps and frozen turbines , because heating elements are not mandatory in Texas ( making a heating element is a high school level electronics project) we have a real mess. Electricity has been off and on since 2 am. This could go on for days.
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DoctorMu
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:00 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm Man it sure did snow quite a bit more on the northern side of the viewing area. Some of the pictures I’m seeing around Montgomery County are real nice! Puts my weak dusting to shame lol
Yeah I got about 2-3 inches near Lake Conroe
About the same in College Station.
Cpv17
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:00 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm Man it sure did snow quite a bit more on the northern side of the viewing area. Some of the pictures I’m seeing around Montgomery County are real nice! Puts my weak dusting to shame lol
Yeah I got about 2-3 inches near Lake Conroe
I’d say we got about half an inch to one inch in Wharton.
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don
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After looking at some more 12z mesoscale models I wouldn't be surprised if ice storm warnings are issued for central and northern counties.
Last edited by don on Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
megsy
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We’ve lost water pressure almost completely in our area.
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don
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12z GFS,CMC,and UKMET has temps around freezing along and north of I-10 with moderate to heavy precip.As the GFS is trending further off shore with the surface low. The EURO is slightly warmer than the GFS and CMC but has a disturbance on the backside of the low with a trowel over the area Wednesday night.
megsy
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megsy wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:34 pm We’ve lost water pressure almost completely in our area.
For anyone in the Cinco MUD 7 area, here’s what’s happening with the water. One of our two water plants is currently down to to some frozen lines and sensors, but Inframark is working as quickly as possible to get it back online and start building water pressure back up. Hopefully this is just temporary. I’ll try to keep everyone posted as updates come in.
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Kingwood36
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don wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:44 pm 12z GFS,CMC,and UKMET has temps around freezing along and north of I-10 with moderate to heavy precip.As the GFS is trending further off shore with the surface low. The EURO is slightly warmer than the GFS and CMC but has a disturbance on the backside of the low with a trowel over the area Wednesday night.
So the coastal counties look safe?
Cromagnum
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KHOU on air said they expected single digits Temps tonight. KHOU.com is saying lows in mid 20s tonight. Which is it?
Kingwood36
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:16 pm KHOU on air said they expected single digits Temps tonight. KHOU.com is saying lows in mid 20s tonight. Which is it?
I'd trust the on air Mets before the website
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:16 pm KHOU on air said they expected single digits Temps tonight. KHOU.com is saying lows in mid 20s tonight. Which is it?
Considering it’s 20 now, I’d say single digits tonight.. lol
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srainhoutx
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Folks I cannot emphasize how dangerous Black Ice is and that's exactly what will happen in areas where some melting is occurring. Slip and fall injuries on Black Ice is brutal because a frozen sheen of ice cannot be seen. Driving on Black Ice is impossible. Be very careful out there!
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Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:16 pm KHOU on air said they expected single digits Temps tonight. KHOU.com is saying lows in mid 20s tonight. Which is it?
Cro, you know enough about the weather to know it’ll be colder than the 20’s tonight lol
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