Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[redfish1]

i still think texas needs to keep a close eye on this sys tem

[Andrew]

Atlantic Outlook:



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Andrew]

i still think texas needs to keep a close eye on this sys tem

Well here is where we could benefit from the setup that is taking place. First scenario (and most likely one too me) is that the storm stays weak and feels the ridge to the North-East and as a result sends it farther west to around Texas or Mexico. This could then lead to rain but nothing TOO TOO bad. The second scenario is that the storm does intensify and starts bumping into the high and finds the weaknesses sending it farther north to around LA-Miss. This would mean minimal impact to our area. This is how the setup is currently looking like but as Wxman said this is a very low confidence setup because if the ridge is stronger or weaker and the storm is stronger or weaker than expected, then things will change dramatically. That is why I feel it is important to see how much land interaction 97L has before getting into the gulf. Not to mention shear looks to be a huge factor here which throws even more variables into the loop.

[srainhoutx]

Pressure dropping a bit...

AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB

[weatherguy425]

Models have definetly shifted west.

[Mr. T]

Models have definetly shifted west.

Gee what a shocker

[Ptarmigan]

Models have definetly shifted west.

Gee what a shocker

I think it will change in the next run.

[desiredwxgd]

[/quote]

I think it will change in the next run.[/quote]

You don't think east again? Looking the potential set up I would say they are on target, for now.

[Scott747]

Models have definetly shifted west.

Gee what a shocker

lol

Despite the poor initialization on the GFS runs the venerable GFDL/HWRF should have this hitting Texas with their 0z run.

[Mr. T]

0z GFS sends a weak surface reflection to the Upper Texas Coast in about 5 days...

0z para GFS is a little further west into the Mid Texas Coast or around Corpus

Both models have increased ridging across the South and are definitely trending towards the Euro

Oh GFS of little faith, that ridge is going nowhere man

I've heard a few musings of "when the ridge breaks down", but my question is, why? There aren't any strong enough features that I see running in the flow aloft north of this monster 594 dm+ ridge to cause any sort of weakness to develop in the SE to cause 97L to be pulled northward towards the Eastern or Central Gulf like I see some models suggest. It's just clear rubbish

Remember, the Euro is your friend, not your enemy

And, no Ed, I'm not "wishcasting" this to Texas or anything. I don't do that

[Mr. T]

Models have definetly shifted west.

Gee what a shocker

lol

Despite the poor initialization on the GFS runs the venerable GFDL/HWRF should have this hitting Texas with their 0z run.

Yeah...

One thing I have noticed is that not one global model or hurricane model wants to give 97L favorable conditions in the Gulf. I wonder if it will be a sheared TS (if it forms) all the way through?

[Scott747]

Gee what a shocker

lol

Despite the poor initialization on the GFS runs the venerable GFDL/HWRF should have this hitting Texas with their 0z run.

Yeah...

One thing I have noticed is that not one global model or hurricane model wants to give 97L favorable conditions in the Gulf. I wonder if it will be a sheared TS (if it forms) all the way through?

To this point they have been spot on though with not overly developing it so credit is definitely due. It could be how some are interpreting/handling the ULL. For a few runs and why the GFS was for so long taking it to much to the N and E was because of tracking that ULL.

We might see some more conducive conditions depending on where that ULL eventually tracks. Either way I think it's obvious that at least for now that the track is continuing to shift further to the W.

There may have been enough time to input some of the info from the GIV mission for the 0z runs.

[Mr. T]

To this point they have been spot on though with not overly developing it so credit is definitely due. It could be how some are interpreting/handling the ULL. For a few runs and why the GFS was for so long taking it to much to the N and E was because of tracking that ULL.

Yeah. I had noticed last night that the GFS was taking the ULL much further north than the Euro, taking a bite out of the ridge across AL/MS and causing 97L to turn randomly northward, while the Euro maintained a large area of 593-594ish heights along the coast... It looks like the GFS twins are trying to come into reality here.

[Mr. T]

0z CMC looks like the GFS. A very weak surface reflection to the Upper Texas Coast monday morning

[Scott747]

0z HWRF almost caught on before trending NW into NO.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, keep your eye on the ball. Just as expected, the ridge is not giving way, and the models are trending more and more west and south. Watch them continue that trend, maybe even as far south as the middle Texas coast before swinging back to the north and east as this system moves closer in. Folks in Central and Western sections of LA, all the way to the central sections of the Texas Coast should pay close attention.

As of this hour this system is getting much better organized. It is too early to tell if this trend will continue, but Thursday might bring the birth of the Bonnie. Final destination and strength are being carefuly monitored.

BB

[srainhoutx]

First visible image of the day...now 70%...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Actually I edited my last post to add the TWO Ed. It's usually quiet this time of morning. Looks like we have a LLC this morning. RECON departs around 10:30 AM.

[srainhoutx]

It certainly looks to be an interesting weekend for sure. We may very well have Bonnie (hint hint ticka1) and Colin by the end of the day as well.

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised they pulled the trigger with a Special. Time is of importance in the Keys and the Bahamas. Seeing the rather rapid development in High RES VIS imagery certainly justifies some stronger wording 'officially'.