February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Guys, we aren’t getting above freezing until Friday in most locales. Use some common sense, and stop reading computer generated forecasts.

Return flow doesn’t push Arctic Air back. Remember that.

Every model has snow/sleet to the coast, some just a lot more. You southern folks need to stop jumping off a cliff every run.

[Kingwood36]

Guys, we aren’t getting above freezing until Friday in most locales. Use some common sense, and stop reading computer generated forecasts.

Return flow doesn’t push Arctic Air back. Remember that.

Every model has snow/sleet to the coast, some just a lot more. You southern folks need to stop jumping off a cliff every run.

So you are saying nws is a computer generated forecast? That's where I'm getting my info

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Guys, we aren’t getting above freezing until Friday in most locales. Use some common sense, and stop reading computer generated forecasts.

Return flow doesn’t push Arctic Air back. Remember that.

Every model has snow/sleet to the coast, some just a lot more. You southern folks need to stop jumping off a cliff every run.

So you are saying nws is a computer generated forecast? That's where I'm getting my info

Yes, I went through the models and the only one that comes halfway close to what you're stating is the Euro and it's colder than what you just told me.

I don't know if they are blending climo or precedent into it, but I think we can start tossing precedent out at this point.

[SLM87TX]

Also the winter storm warning is for frozen precip the closer to the coast the more ice. So actually more damaging then the snow to driving and property. Has there been any flight sounding or weather balloons for the region?

[TexasBreeze]

Houston HGX doesn't do balloon soundings. Only aircraft ones at the airports that I am aware of. Wish they did those after that warm nose snowstorm bust several years ago around here. The nearest ones are Lake Charles and Corpus.

[Kingwood36]

Guys, we aren’t getting above freezing until Friday in most locales. Use some common sense, and stop reading computer generated forecasts.

Return flow doesn’t push Arctic Air back. Remember that.

Every model has snow/sleet to the coast, some just a lot more. You southern folks need to stop jumping off a cliff every run.

So you are saying nws is a computer generated forecast? That's where I'm getting my info

Yes, I went through the models and the only one that comes halfway close to what you're stating is the Euro and it's colder than what you just told me.

I don't know if they are blending climo or precedent into it, but I think we can start tossing precedent out at this point.

Ok..so where would I go to get true info at since the nws is computer generated

[don]

What a historic storm on the way,and what makes it even more amazing is the fact that its happening on the 126 year anniversary of the Valentines Day snow storm!

[SLM87TX]

Is there some where to view aircraft ones?

[TexasBreeze]

The detailed county wide forecasts from nws are not computer generated. The point and click ones seem to be though. They change frequently while the county ones change when the discussions are put out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I don't think I've ever used the NWS forecast site. I will however read their AFDs and look for clues.

I typically like wunderground the best because of its user interface and hour by hour data with precip, temp, wind speed and wind chill.

I think all online forecasts are off right now because the models don't get Arctic air right most of the time. I think the KHOU team is actually handling it the best.

[ammmyjjj]

Trying to decide whether to turn off water to house.....opinions? When would be the best time to do this if this is what I decide to do?

[ronyan]

Most models have Lake Jackson around the 8-11F range Tuesday morning, only the Euro is warmer that I've seen. Will depend on clearing and how strong the winds are.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the latest GFS depiction of snow/sleet totals for tonight through Monday.

[jasons2k]

Trying to decide whether to turn off water to house.....opinions? When would be the best time to do this if this is what I decide to do?

After debating on this, I’ve decided the water gets shut off tonight until Wednesday at least. At the main. Unfortunately, I don’t have a shutoff going into my backflow, and I don’t feel like trying to do emergency PVC work in 33 degree weather to put one in. I have the parts but I just don’t feel comfortable chancing it with single digit lows approaching zero up here. We have plenty of drinking water and I have three tubs that will be full. We’ll survive.

May take a break on Wednesday and then drain again for Thursday morning.

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest GFS depiction of snow/sleet totals for tonight through Monday.

Hard to believe this isn’t some fantasy 360-hour accumulation. This is tonight & tomorrow folks!

[txbear]

Is there some where to view aircraft ones?

I had asked the same last night. Couldn’t find anything out there.

[srainhoutx]

Aircraft data is not available to the public. Occasionally the NWS forecast offices will mention that data in their Area Forecast Discussions.

[cperk]

Trying to decide whether to turn off water to house.....opinions? When would be the best time to do this if this is what I decide to do?

After debating on this, I’ve decided the water gets shut off tonight until Wednesday at least. At the main. Unfortunately, I don’t have a shutoff going into my backflow, and I don’t feel like trying to do emergency PVC work in 33 degree weather to put one in. I have the parts but I just don’t feel comfortable chancing it with single digit lows approaching zero up here. We have plenty of drinking water and I have three tubs that will be full. We’ll survive.

May take a break on Wednesday and then drain again for Thursday morning.

What are the pipes in your home made of.

[tireman4]

I have a house less than two years old. Going to put it on full stream on the faucet, open cabinet doors. I do not have exposed pipes, should be good to go.

[jasons2k]

Trying to decide whether to turn off water to house.....opinions? When would be the best time to do this if this is what I decide to do?

After debating on this, I’ve decided the water gets shut off tonight until Wednesday at least. At the main. Unfortunately, I don’t have a shutoff going into my backflow, and I don’t feel like trying to do emergency PVC work in 33 degree weather to put one in. I have the parts but I just don’t feel comfortable chancing it with single digit lows approaching zero up here. We have plenty of drinking water and I have three tubs that will be full. We’ll survive.

May take a break on Wednesday and then drain again for Thursday morning.

What are the pipes in your home made of.

The pipes in the house are PVC and well-insulated. It’s the fact that my sprinkler backflow ties into the main line directly, below the spigot. And no shutoff. So I can’t drain my backflow unless I shut the main - and if my backflow goes, because there is no shutoff between it and the main - I would have a real problem in the middle of this. I’d rather just drain the pipes (including my backflow) and play it safe.