Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[Mr. T]

Not surprisingly the GFDL and HWRF both shifted W by a fair amount.

Panhandle of Fla. to the NO area.

Any model trying to turn this north east of LA is just full of bad cheese and mayo, IMO

[Ptarmigan]

The Gulf should really watch 97L, likely to be Bonnie soon.

[Andrew]

That is the other thing that models have a LOT of trouble with. A lot of models usually build the high back way to slowly. Remember how short lived the weakness was for Alex the same thing could happen here, but Mexico may be a tad to far south especially if it does become a hurricane but if it stays weak then that is possible.

That is a good point.

I should have mentioned that I really don't think this achieves TS status until reaching the FL Straights. It will likely achieve TD status before then, though. Possibly by tommorow evening... The environment around 97L is really not all that favorable for intensification at this time and really won't be around the Florida Straights either. An upper level low just to the west of this system will give 97L bouts of trouble the next coulple of days. However, we're not talking about screaming shear here, and even with light or moderate shear overhead of a system it can still develop. I think we'll see bursts of deep convection for the next couple of days with a defined LLC finally making an appearance as it begins to pass south of FL. This is why I favor such a southerly track initially (weaker system).

If this upper level low, or TUTT, tries to move faster away from this system, then 97L could definitely begin to ramp up in intensity quicker

I agree if this does not get above TS level then westbound it is. Even if it does gain strength though the amount of lat is still in question. I think the models are sending it NW way to fast.

[Bluefalcon]

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.

[Andrew]

The Gulf should really watch 97L, likely to be Bonnie soon.

The Gulf is a big place. I won't doom us to days without air conditioning by declaring Houston 100% safe yet.




I have had decent luck causing rain by washing my car...

*cough* Ike *cough* hahaha just messing with you man

I think Ptarmigan was just saying everyone should keep an eye out for this storm as with any storm that gets into the gulf.

[Mr. T]

I think Ptarmigan was just saying everyone should keep an eye out for this storm as with any storm that gets into the gulf.

Yeah.

As usual, all Gulf residents should be keeping one eye (or two?) on 97L

[Ptarmigan]

*cough* Ike *cough* hahaha just messing with you man

I think Ptarmigan was just saying everyone should keep an eye out for this storm as with any storm that gets into the gulf.

I meant to say that we should keep an eye for this storm. This could have an impact on the Macando Oil Spill.

[Ptarmigan]

The Gulf is a big place. I won't doom us to days without air conditioning by declaring Houston 100% safe yet.




I have had decent luck causing rain by washing my car...

Evacuations would be in place 3 days ahead.

[Andrew]

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.

After the HWRF got "tweaked" it became terrible. When they were tweaking it they said it would be the best model out there. Now it has a serious east bias and is almost always the outlier to the east. As for the GFDL like wxman said it doesn't do well with weak systems so that is just something to think about but what you said is correct, especially for Alex as most models really like trofs....

[Scott747]

Not surprisingly the GFDL and HWRF both shifted W by a fair amount.

Panhandle of Fla. to the NO area.

Any model trying to turn this north east of LA is just full of bad cheese and mayo, IMO

No doubt.

Of course there will be some variables depending on where the llc finally develops but I suspect some of the models will be way off on the earlier initialization points and we will see further adjustments to the W.

[Scott747]

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.

After the HWRF got "tweaked" it became terrible. When they were tweaking it they said it would be the best model out there. Now it has a serious east bias and is almost always the outlier to the east. As for the GFDL like wxman said it doesn't do well with weak systems so that is just something to think about but what you said is correct, especially for Alex as most models really like trofs....

The issue with the HWRF came up today on Eastern and one of the pro mets gave me a link that explains some of the tweaks. Haven't had a chance to listen to it but it might shed some light for those that are interested.

WebEx needed -

http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/ ... i/id/14997

[Andrew]

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.

After the HWRF got "tweaked" it became terrible. When they were tweaking it they said it would be the best model out there. Now it has a serious east bias and is almost always the outlier to the east. As for the GFDL like wxman said it doesn't do well with weak systems so that is just something to think about but what you said is correct, especially for Alex as most models really like trofs....

The issue with the HWRF came up today on Eastern and one of the pro mets gave me a link that explains some of the tweaks. Haven't had a chance to listen to it but it might shed some light for those that are interested.

WebEx needed -

http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/ ... i/id/14997

Yes I just looked at a little of it and they were talking about the physics aspect of it and some of the errors in the code. Also they were talking about how they made it more complex which means more errors to fix so maybe if they fix those errors it will become a really good model. Finally they were talking about how they want to make it a high res model somewhere around 2012-2014. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[Andrew]

Always good too check the MIMIC to see the general motion of the storm and if circulation is present:

[srainhoutx]

Still a rather compact feature. Certainly improvement regarding development as far as structure is concerned. I suspect RECON will find a TD at least.

[Paul]

nothing at the surface I can see..but maybe tomorrow....as far as track the dynamics are pretty straight forward.....except for the loner EURO which I wouldnt discount just yet....EURO nailed Ike some 5 days out while all the other dynamics were screaming EC,FL the NGOM.....depends on the ridge and how strong 97L gets....here is the last run of the EURO from earlier today.....cant really see anything with the poor resolution with the 850 winds or mslp....rather I posted the geopotential run to show you where it was taking it.....should be taken with a grain of salt though since we do not have anything more than an invest attm......tonights run is important....does it fall in line with the other models or does it stay the course?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 012!!step/

[redfish1]

i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion.

[desiredwxgd]

i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion.

I share the same thoughts. As to how far west is the mystery.

BB haven't heard from you since this morning. Your thoughts?

[desiredwxgd]

i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion.

I share the same thoughts. As to how far west is the mystery.

BB haven't heard from you since this morning. Your thoughts?

Or anyone's thoughts on a track a little more west? Thoughts on the ridge?

[biggerbyte]

Actually, I've posted a few more times today. You would have to go back through several pages. Just to recap what I said about an hour ago. I still believe we will see a westward trend as this system grows, and the ridge builds in. It is going to be a matter of how far west said ridge builds, how fast this system moves, and it's strength, as to where it ends up. I'm going to hold steady with a central Texas, to LA landfall. I'm not buying into the most northern or northeastern gulf idea. We have a few days to watch this, so conditions could change that would alter that mind set. Until we get movement of this system, as well as what this ridge is doing as the days progress, everyone on the gulf coast should pay attention.

[ronyan]

What about the Euro, does is still show the stronger ridge?