February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

This is shaping up to be historic and the closer we get the more the models are aligning. Thankfully there are still signals that at least for Houston this could end up being more of a snow event than an ice threat. I know we all hope so.

[Cromagnum]

All I know is that if Frankie Macdonald days it's going to get cold, it's 100% going to get cold.

https://youtu.be/44IGtXj4CSg

[Kingwood36]

All I know is that if Frankie Macdonald days it's going to get cold, it's 100% going to get cold.

https://youtu.be/44IGtXj4CSg

I love Frankie lol

[DoctorMu]

I’m inclined to go with the Euro’s colder/snowier model given how the GFS has significantly underestimated the temperatures so far as Blake pointed out.

EDIT: Well maybe the Euro and GFS aren’t so far apart after all.

Canadian is bringing snow on Monday almost all the way to the coast, similar to the Euro. Wednesday is an ice event.

[DoctorMu]

This is shaping up to be historic and the closer we get the more the models are aligning. Thankfully there are still signals that at least for Houston this could end up being more of a snow event than an ice threat. I know we all hope so.

Our local guys this evening were leaning toward the 12z GFS and ice Monday. They may (fingers crossed) need to rethink that tomorrow.

[txsnowmaker]

I’m inclined to go with the Euro’s colder/snowier model given how the GFS has significantly underestimated the temperatures so far as Blake pointed out.

EDIT: Well maybe the Euro and GFS aren’t so far apart after all.

Canadian is bringing snow on Monday almost all the way to the coast, similar to the Euro. Wednesday is an ice event.

My part of town (SW side) is blue in the Wednesday map which would indicate snow.

[Andrew]

GFS

[Kingwood36]

From Blake's twitter..

Based on the latest data in right now:

1. I'm likely going to have to adjust our temps even lower for the next 7 days.

2. Highs Monday may fall into the low 20s for daytime highs after starting near 28.

3. Not one but two high-impact winter storms looking likely. Stay tuned!

[txsnowmaker]

GFS

Must have warmed up. Blake posted 3 hours ago that GFS had no 70s in the forecast for the rest of February. I don’t trust the GFS. It’s high tomorrow is 9 degrees warmer than Ch. 13 and 6 degrees warmer than Ch. 11.

Here’s David Paul’s latest assessment. He noted the Euro which is mostly snow, and added concern about ice for those south of I-10 (which I assume is really those closer to the coast, not just a few miles south of the interstate).

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/wea ... fc1ba7e636

[txsnowmaker]

From Blake's twitter..

Based on the latest data in right now:

1. I'm likely going to have to adjust our temps even lower for the next 7 days.

2. Highs Monday may fall into the low 20s for daytime highs after starting near 28.

3. Not one but two high-impact winter storms looking likely. Stay tuned!

I think Blake is on to something, and the GFS will be playing catch-up.

[Kingwood36]

GFS

Must have warmed up. Blake posted 3 hours ago that GFS had no 70s in the forecast for the rest of February. I don’t trust the GFS. It’s high tomorrow is 9 degrees warmer than Ch. 13.

Here’s David Paul’s latest assessment. He noted the Euro which is mostly snow, and added concern about ice for those south of I-10 (which I assume is really those closer to the coast, not just a few miles south of the interstate).

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/wea ... fc1ba7e636

I'm in angleton..23 miles from the coast

[Andrew]

From Blake's twitter..

Based on the latest data in right now:

1. I'm likely going to have to adjust our temps even lower for the next 7 days.

2. Highs Monday may fall into the low 20s for daytime highs after starting near 28.

3. Not one but two high-impact winter storms looking likely. Stay tuned!

I think Blake is on to something, and the GFS will be playing catch-up.

At this point both the GFS and ECMWF show a low of 10 on Tuesday morning. Pretty incredible model consensus for such a large event.

[txsnowmaker]

From Blake's twitter..

Based on the latest data in right now:

1. I'm likely going to have to adjust our temps even lower for the next 7 days.

2. Highs Monday may fall into the low 20s for daytime highs after starting near 28.

3. Not one but two high-impact winter storms looking likely. Stay tuned!

I think Blake is on to something, and the GFS will be playing catch-up.

At this point both the GFS and ECMWF show a low of 10 on Tuesday morning. Pretty incredible model consensus for such a large event.

Yes but if the GFS forecasted highs are off by at least 5 degrees on Sunday and Monday that could make all the difference between a mostly snow event or something much icier, no?

[Andrew]

I think Blake is on to something, and the GFS will be playing catch-up.

At this point both the GFS and ECMWF show a low of 10 on Tuesday morning. Pretty incredible model consensus for such a large event.

Yes but if the GFS forecasted highs are off by at least 5 degrees on Sunday and Monday that could make all the difference between a mostly snow event or something much icier, no?

It's more of the upper-levels that will be the difference-maker between snow and ice. Traditionally, models underestimate the deepness of the warm nose and I suspect this will be the case again. The major difference this time is we have so much cold air in place I suspect we will see the whole atmosphere cool rather quickly by midday. I still think we see freezing rain turn into sleet and then snow across much of the region during the last hour or two of the event.


Also, something else a lot of people aren't talking about is if we see temps briefly climb over freezing on Tuesday or Wednesday, we could see a major black ice type event the next morning when roads refreeze. This very likely could be an impactful system that lasts us a couple of days.

[Scott747]

Welp....

I only make special appearances im the winter months if there is something truly historic on the horizon.

Consider yourself warned.

[Andrew]

Welp....

I only make special appearances im the winter months if there is something truly historic on the horizon.

Consider yourself warned.

Once in a lifetime type of event, or at least once in several decades?

[don]

0z EURO looks similar to the GFS and shows more ice...

[Scott747]

[quote=Kingwood36 post_id=95404

I'm in angleton..23 miles from the coast
[/quote]

Little confused. How far do you think Angleton is from the coast?.

[Scott747]

Welp....

I only make special appearances im the winter months if there is something truly historic on the horizon.

Consider yourself warned.

Once in a lifetime type of event, or at least once in several decades?

Well I did the 80's event. So we're somewhere in-between. Ha.

[txsnowmaker]

Ukmet looks terrific.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=