February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Andrew]

The run from the GFS is a worst-case scenario where we have a solid layer of frozen precipitation and clearing skies resulting in strong radiational cooling. Could it happen? Sure, but I think the more likely scenario is lows in the upper 10s/low 20s. Obviously, something to keep in mind and further shows the importance of any precipitation that does fall. Just reading the GFS verbatim we would be looking at a "noreaster" type of event with a coastal low developing and tracking to the northeast.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

UKMET says accumulating snow from Galveston to Brownsville... LOL

[txsnowmaker]

WOW. Ive was born and raised in Houston-and still live here. I recall 1989 vividly. It was like 9 degrees and must have been couple of inches of ice outside. But this...looks worse-Im concerned about tree limbs etc around the house...power etc

We had nearly a couple of inches of snow on the ground for at least 24 hours, but definitely not a couple of inches of ice. There were pipe issues and some power troubles as well, but nowhere near the trouble that would have come from a coupe of inches of ice.

[txsnowmaker]

How much snow is being spit out for Houston from the latest suite of 0z products? That can’t all be ice in the GFS map?!?!

[Kingwood36]

Ukmet

[txsnowmaker]

This is incredible. That would be something else.

[TexasMetBlake]

GFS is definitely a worse-case scenario and it seems too unbelievable to be true. Not saying it can't happen but that's a perfect storm of heavy snow or ice accumulations and a clearing sky like Andrew alluded to. Strong radiational cooling could in theory cause our temps to tank to near all-time lows. We'll see. Not ready to go that far yet.

[txsnowmaker]

Ukmet

These models would likely be a repeat of 1989 where Galveston Bay froze over with an ensuing massive fish die off. These maps actually suggest it could be even worse if they came to fruition. Let’s have snow without the devastation and damage to homes, infrastructure, and wildlife!

[TexasMetBlake]

A freeze of this magnitude has been well documented many times in this area. It only stands to reason it was going to happen again. I don't think it's a question of if but how bad. It's all about the snow/ice cover I think at this point and how fast the skies clear.

[txsnowmaker]

The GFS run is wild. It adds even more snow on Wednesday. Check out this map! Seems to show about a half foot of snow in Houston. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_32.png

[txsnowmaker]

Guess everyone is waiting for the Euro lol. Where did dawnmaloney go

[harp]

Guess everyone is waiting for the Euro lol. Where did dawnmaloney go

Let sleeping dogs lie!!!

[txsnowmaker]

Based on performance this winter, between the GFS and Euro which has been more reliable (if either) in the 4-5 day range?

[Andrew]

ECMWF is pretty close to the GFS in the progression of the cold air Monday evening but has mostly rain over the Houston region on Monday. Still, lows in the teens on Tuesday

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro has finally joined the GFS but keeps the coldest stuff for Tuesday 12z. Showing a low of 17 in Downtown Houston. Keeps all precip liquid with a change over to snow towards the Brazos Valley.

[Cpv17]

Euro has finally joined the GFS but keeps the coldest stuff for Tuesday 12z. Showing a low of 17 in Downtown Houston. Keeps all precip liquid with a change over to snow towards the Brazos Valley.

That’s scary and btw the Euro will probably trend colder over the coming runs. It’s been playing catch up since 12z Friday.

[txsnowmaker]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

[DoctorMu]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

Probably about 20°F...but ICE. Bad news.

Might as well accept the mega cold (single digits to 20°F). Praying for snow, not ice.

[txsnowmaker]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

Probably about 20°F...but ICE. Bad news.

Might as well accept the mega cold (single digits to 20°F). Praying for snow, not ice.

We don’t need ice. With the temps being forecast at the moment I’m willing to bet this air will be cold and deep enough to avoid being warm nosed to an extent that would prevent snow.

[txsnowmaker]

What are the Euro control and ensembles showing in terms of frozen precip next week?