February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[danmaloney]

even in mid summer,,,in the southern hemisphere . check this out.
Now South Pole

-29 °F
Snow flurries. Overcast.


Feels Like: -51 °F
Forecast: -24 / -26 °F
Wind: 9 mph ↑ from Northeast

[GBinGrimes]

Get.Rid.Of.The.Troll.Please.

[danmaloney]

I am only posting weather related information and thoughts. Calling me a troll is not fair when i dont break any rules.
We all want the same thing,cold and snow.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian/GEM is a true believer again. We're a ways from the Feb 8-10 window, but they are bringing the cold and wet again. There's far more cold air poised that our January 10 snow miracle here in CS. Euro is sniffing. GFS isn't buying, but I take that as good news considering the GFS miserable record this winter.

We're still running 2-3°F colder than last winter so far.

[Cpv17]

Canadian/GEM is a true believer again. We're a ways from the Feb 8-10 window, but they are bringing the cold and wet again. There's far more cold air poised that our January 10 snow miracle here in CS. Euro is sniffing. GFS isn't buying, but I take that as good news considering the GFS miserable record this winter.

We're still running 2-3°F colder than last winter so far.

That’s freaking beautiful!!

[cperk]

I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.

That is partly correct, yes. I'm not going to be able to post for a little while as I have a busy schedule coming up. So thought I would post some pretty pictures to maybe help explain what the GFS is showing and why the first batch of arctic air will slide more to our east.

As don mentioned, the ridging over the Pacific has some to do with it. To get the first batch of arctic air projected more toward our area, you'd like to see a stronger ridge poking more into Alaska. The GFS has the ridge more over the Pacific northwest which essentially scoots the coldest air to our east, giving us just a glancing blow.

GFS 500mb 06z Feb 6.png



Follow this through for about 48 hours, the EPO phases out to more neutral. This is in forecast from the ensembles as well.

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 8.png


Hence, barney colors for the Mid-West and Northeast.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 8.png



Now at the end of the 12z GFS, it shows EPO going negative again, with the AO remaining strongly negative with cold air building in Northwest Canada (our source region).

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 15.png



Notice very cold temp anomalies building where we would typically like to see the cold air build.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 15.png



With the placement of the ridging in Alaska and a +/-NAO, this run would allow for the cold air to spill more toward the Rockies into TX.

GFS 500mb 12z Feb 17.png



So as a result, the first batch (#1) would slide our way while our source region reloads. Where #2 batch goes ???

GFS 850mb TA 12z Feb 17.png



This is one run of the GFS. I posted this mainly to show why it's unlikely we would get anything extreme next week as far as temperatures other than little below average for this time of year. If the 12z GFS were to be correct in lala land (which we all know it won't, 18z will likely have the opposite), then there would definitely be something to watch as we roll into the second half of the month. However, if you're looking for anything wintery fun (snow/sleet) on this particular run, then that would be a no-go as it would just be annoyingly dry and cold. With that said, moisture will work itself out and that's not something I really pay attention to until we are in the 5-7 day timeframe.


For those interested in reading and understanding more about the AO, NAO, PDO and PNA: this is an excellent link to read up on. Just click on the blue tabs and it will give detailed description along with graphical examples. It also will shows the ensemble forecast for each.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php

Thanks this helps me understand whats going on.

[danmaloney]

It is too warm in Houston even for this time of years. I have tomato plants sprouting. Even my garlic chives have grown throughout Jan.

[don]

FWIW 0z Globals have trended colder next week with the Euro showing 36+ hours of temperatures not getting out of the 30s across southeast Texas, with a light wintry mix late next week.

[djmike]

I know its weatherbug BUT showing snow for Beaumont Thurs Fri and Sat next week! We shall see. Im sure it will dwindle closer we get. Lol

[Kingwood36]

I know its weatherbug BUT showing snow for Beaumont Thurs Fri and Sat next week! We shall see. Im sure it will dwindle closer we get. Lol

Ya mine shows a 70% chance of wintery mix next friday..its a fun thought but it will be gone pretty quickly...those 10 forecast are good for a laugh

[don]

12z GFS seems to be slowly getting onboard and has a winter storm late next week over North, Central, and Southeast Texas.Still a long ways out though... The CMC is also really cold with the High coming straight down into the southern plains.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is nuts:





Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.

[srainhoutx]

Be careful with those TT snowfall graphics. Most of what falls on the GFS is ice.

[kyzsl51]

The 12z GFS is nuts:





Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.

Even stronger than what models showed back in in January of 2018 initially? I know that one really strong

[Kingwood36]

I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol

[Cpv17]

Be careful with those TT snowfall graphics. Most of what falls on the GFS is ice.

Yes sir that’s very true. I’m not even concerned about the precip part right now. I’ve learned over the years that you should always worry about the temps first before the precip. You gotta have the correct temps to begin with before you can even worry about frozen precip and with this possible event still over a week out, models will change quite a bit regarding the precip part.

[Cromagnum]

I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol

Were you here in the late 90s for the crippling ice storm? You wouldn't say that if you were.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is nuts:





Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.

Even stronger than what models showed back in in January of 2018 initially? I know that one really strong

I believe so. The biggest reason it’s showing such significant cold is because it has a 1060mb+ Artic high sitting right above Montana. With that strong of a high, those temps could definitely come to fruition but I wouldn’t worry too much about it yet. Now if the models are still showing it by this weekend, then I’d start paying much more closer attention to it.

[jasons2k]

I hope it doesn’t get that cold, geeze. It would wipe-out a lot of plants and freeze sprinkler systems, etc. Not fun.

[TexasMetBlake]

With the NAO the most negative its been in 11 years causing some serious blocking over Greenland, it doesn't surprise me. The GFS has been hinting at an extreme arctic outbreak here and there over the last week. Last week, it was showing a low of 0 deg in College Station. Then it lost it.

Keep in mind that the 12z GFS is wild beyond imagination and something like that happens only two or three times per century. That's a 1983/89 event with three consecutive days with TMAX numbers in the mid 20s and TMins around 10 degrees. I'm not buying----yet. It has been over 30 years since we've seen that type of cold so maybe we're due?

For what its worth, the Euro also shows wintry weather at the same time the GFS does around 210 hours. Something to watch for sure but I can almost 100% guarantee you that the 12z GFS will not happen to that extreme -- likely not even close.