February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Katdaddy]

February is not far away. Will it feel more like Winter or Spring? I guess the Groundhog will give us a clue.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensembles suggest a strong Arctic invasion is developing as February begins. The effect of the Sudden Stratospheric Warning event in early January is reaching our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Get those Winter Clothes ready!

[BlueJay]

February is not far away. Will it feel more like Winter or Spring? I guess the Groundhog will give us a clue.

I think the groundhog will see his shadow.

Winter continues.

[Cpv17]

The overnight Ensembles suggest a strong Arctic invasion is developing as February begins. The effect of the Sudden Stratospheric Warning event in early January is reaching our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Get those Winter Clothes ready!

The GFS doesn’t even have much of a front through here lol the coldest it gets is the upper 30’s. It has all the cold air going east.

[DoctorMu]

The overnight Ensembles suggest a strong Arctic invasion is developing as February begins. The effect of the Sudden Stratospheric Warning event in early January is reaching our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Get those Winter Clothes ready!

The GFS doesn’t even have much of a front through here lol the coldest it gets is the upper 30’s. It has all the cold air going east.

GFS' track record this winter has been awful.

Euro and Canadian have been bringing the cold in a week. If there's precip. at just the right time - might avoid the warm nose.

[Cpv17]

The GFS and Euro are now both in agreement that the coldest air will be well east of Texas. Still a long ways out though and it could easily shift back west as we get closer. Models do this all the time at this range and then slowly shift back west. We’ll see.

[don]

12z EURO and CMC both show a winter storm setup early next week. Getting a glancing blow of cold air is better for us if you want a better chance of frozen precip.As a direct blast of arctic air would cause 9 times out of 10 too much suppression/dry air for any precip. But its still really early expect a lot of flip flopping as the models get a better handle on the upper level pattern.

[snowman65]

My wife and I are thinking of going to Branson, Mo. the week of Feb 8-13. What would this do to the weather there for that week? Thanks!

[danmaloney]

The SSW has so far failed to give Houston anything. Now all we are talking about is a glancing blow of air that goes East.

[Kingwood36]

I just want some cold weather screw the rain or snow or whatever..hell is approaching faster and faster and pretty soon will be in the 90s again

[danmaloney]

I agree,kingwood. Here in Houston, we have a very limited amount of time for even a chance of cold air. On this board, there is always talk of,,,in the next few weeks,14,days, the ssw takes 3 weeks to manifest,,,,etc. Houston being so fart south doesnt cant spare weeks to wait for cold air. It has to happen fast. 3 more weeks,,is about it.

[don]

Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.

[Cpv17]

Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.

Why’s the cold wanting to slide to the east so much instead of heading south? Lack of blocking over Greenland or what?

[danmaloney]

I'm getting tired of the these glancing blows and the cold air sliding east. I just dont get it

[Cpv17]

I'm getting tired of the these glancing blows and the cold air sliding east. I just dont get it

Me and you both. Pretty aggravating but I’m still hoping it will go more towards us.

[danmaloney]

Prayer and hope are the only things we have.

[redneckweather]

Welcome to Southeast, Tx where 99.98% of the time we get glancing blows of arctic air during the winter time.

[don]

Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.

Why’s the cold wanting to slide to the east so much instead of heading south? Lack of blocking over Greenland or what?

I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.

[Belmer]

I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.

That is partly correct, yes. I'm not going to be able to post for a little while as I have a busy schedule coming up. So thought I would post some pretty pictures to maybe help explain what the GFS is showing and why the first batch of arctic air will slide more to our east.

As don mentioned, the ridging over the Pacific has some to do with it. To get the first batch of arctic air projected more toward our area, you'd like to see a stronger ridge poking more into Alaska. The GFS has the ridge more over the Pacific northwest which essentially scoots the coldest air to our east, giving us just a glancing blow.

GFS 500mb 06z Feb 6.png

Follow this through for about 48 hours, the EPO phases out to more neutral. This is in forecast from the ensembles as well.

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 8.png

Hence, barney colors for the Mid-West and Northeast.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 8.png

Now at the end of the 12z GFS, it shows EPO going negative again, with the AO remaining strongly negative with cold air building in Northwest Canada (our source region).

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 15..png

Notice very cold temp anomalies building where we would typically like to see the cold air build.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 15.png

With the placement of the ridging in Alaska and a +/-NAO, this run would allow for the cold air to spill more toward the Rockies into TX.

GFS 500mb 12z Feb 17..png

So as a result, the first batch (#1) would slide our way while our source region reloads. Where #2 batch goes ???

GFS 850mb TA 12z Feb 17.png

This is one run of the GFS. I posted this mainly to show why it's unlikely we would get anything extreme next week as far as temperatures other than little below average for this time of year. If the 12z GFS were to be correct in lala land (which we all know it won't, 18z will likely have the opposite), then there would definitely be something to watch as we roll into the second half of the month. However, if you're looking for anything wintery fun (snow/sleet) on this particular run, then that would be a no-go as it would just be annoyingly dry and cold. With that said, moisture will work itself out and that's not something I really pay attention to until we are in the 5-7 day timeframe.


For those interested in reading and understanding more about the AO, NAO, PDO and PNA: this is an excellent link to read up on. Just click on the blue tabs and it will give detailed description along with graphical examples. It also will shows the ensemble forecast for each.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php

[danmaloney]

I'm still sick and tired of the " sliding east" of the cold air. The rotation of the earth,gravity, and air movement dictate by physics that the cold air should dive in a south direction in the northern hemisphere.