January 2021

[DoctorMu]

The CMC is still digging the ULL south. If we can avoid overrun and warm nose.

[snowman65]

So close, yet so far.....but my son in Irving should have some fun.

[Stormlover2020]

Let’s see what today’s and tomorrow model runs show.

[Cpv17]

6z GFS and GEFS both shifted slightly south.

[tireman4]

Remember, models will flip flop as we get closer to the event. Srain mentioned the Stratospheric Warming and we are seeing ( and will be seeing) the results of that. We are within the 5 day out period coming to the event. Stay tuned here as the pro and amateur folks will guide you through it.

[Kingwood36]

12z NAM has it getting closer to houston

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Gusty northwesterly winds up to 20-25 knots will prevail across
all area airports throughout the day today. Wrap-around moisture
from the area of low pressure that brought yesterday`s cold front
is expected to bring MVFR ceilings around 2,500-3,000ft to the
northern airports later this morning and throughout the afternoon
hours (CLL, UTS, CXO, IAH). By the evening hours, this cloud deck
will begin scattering out and return VFR conditions to the area.
Wind speeds will begin decreasing around this time as well.
Overnight tonight, winds will remain northwesterly but the wind
speeds will drop down to around 5 knots for the inland airports. 26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 401 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/...



.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday Night]

Northwesterly winds continue blowing in following the passage of
yesterday afternoon`s cold front. Low temperatures overnight across
the area will bottom out in the low-to-mid 40s for inland areas and
the upper 40s along the coast. As an area of low pressure continues
to move away from us towards the east, some wrap-around moisture in
the form of cloud cover is drifting across the far northeastern CWA.
These clouds are expected to make their way down about halfway
across the CWA (drawing a line from the northwest to southeast) and
will last through Thursday night. This moisture will not be enough
to produce rain, so you can keep the umbrellas stowed away for now.
However, these clouds will make it tough for the northeastern CWA to
break out of the low 50s for Thursday afternoon. High temperatures
for areas outside of the cloud deck will be in the upper 50s. The
cloud deck will begin decreasing by Thursday night as we become more
influenced by high pressure, so temperatures will be a bit cooler
with lows dropping in the upper 30s/low 40s. However, Friday night
will be the colder of the two as the skies will be back to mostly
clear. Northern counties will be on the brink of freezing in the low
30s, while further south the low temperatures will dip down in the
mid 30s. 26


.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...

Quiet weather with below average temperatures is expected on
Saturday with highs generally in the 50s. Clouds will be on the
increase from southwest to northeast ahead of the next surge of
moisture or systems moving over the region on Sunday. Model
guidance continues to bring a strong upper-level low from the
Rockies by Saturday, approaching the forecast area by Sunday. In
addition to this system, a surface coastal low over northern
Mexico will move northeast into the Upper Texas coast. Given broad
lift, favorable jet dynamics and decent low to mid level
moisture, widespread precipitation looks to be near a certainty.
What is not as certain is where the more focused areas of
precipitation will set up and what type of precipitation will
fall. Looking at 700 mb theta-e and 850 temperatures, the 00z GFS
and 06Z NAM show the coldest solutions, bringing a colder airmass
into the region faster/earlier than the ECWMF and CMC. As we have
been mentioned on previous discussions, the final track and timing
of the surface low will determine the quantity of warm air
prevailing at low to mid levels; therefore, the type of
precipitation. Although precipitation will most likely be rain in
most areas, wet bulb temperatures are supportive of a quick
changeover to snow north of I-10, with better chances along and
north of a line from KCLL to KUTS where surface temperatures will
be colder. As of now, the best window for rain/snow mix is from
late Sunday afternoon into late evening.

Still a lot of uncertainty with this event as models are
struggling with how the surface low will phase with the upper-
level low. The takeaway for now is that active and cooler weather
looks likely Sunday into late Sunday night, with period of rain-
snow mix mainly over our far northern counties.

Below average temperatures prevail in the region Monday and
Tuesday, with daytime highs from the upper 40s to upper 50s and
lows dipping below 32 degrees north of I-10. This cold period does
not look prolonged as a gradual warm up is expected after midweek
with temperatures back up toward near to above normal. 05


.MARINE...
Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas remain in place
in the wake of last nights cold front. Will maintain SCA`s already
in place. In addition, water levels will run below normal in the
bays, especially around low tide times today, but will forgo a low
water advsy for the time being but monitor trends/obs. Winds/seas
begin subsiding later today.

Unsettled wx returns to the waters heading into Sunday as a coastal
low develops in the vicinity of the Matagorda Bay area. E/SE flow
will increase, seas will build and periods of heavy rain and
embedded tstms are expected. SCA`s will again be required. As the
low treks ewd into the Gulf, a cold front will fill in behind it
with moderate to strong offshore winds continuing into Monday
evening. Conditions will gradually improve Tues as surface high
pressure builds into the region. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 54 38 53 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 56 40 55 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 45 54 44 54 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...05

[don]

Unfortunately models have more warm air advection than they were showing a couple of days ago.While saying that there is still a window for a changeover to snow.Its going to be close,as usual it looks like its going to come down to how fast does the cold air come in before the moisture is gone.The good news is that this far out models tend to be too warm with temps,we'll know more once we get in range of the mesoscale models.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah still have time, going to be close close but model struggle don’t get mad till about sat night if it’s still showing this lol

[jasons2k]

That wind today is a bit too chilly for my taste.

It’d be neat to get a winter surprise this weekend. After that, I’m done and ready for spring. My drying skin and cold tolerance has about reached its limit for this winter season.

[don]

If we can get the upper level trough in west Texas to keep diving southeast towards us instead of shooting off to the northeast we could be in business for snow.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12z NAM has it getting closer to houston

Give me 4-6 inches and let it hang around half the day on Monday, and I'll let you warm weather weirdos have a balmy end to January. I get February back.

[Stormlover2020]

Rgem is getting close also

[don]

Yep, looking at the 12z models these are the two scenarios i am seeing for snow down here. If we can either get the cold core to move over southeast Texas before pulling off to the northeast of us.Or if the cold air advection is stronger than what the models are showing at the moment we could get some decent snow down here,even if most of it wont stick.The moisture will be there even on the backside of the system as the trough goes negatively tilted over east Texas.But will the air be cold enough to overpower warm nosing is the question.Sometimes the cold air wins out like we saw in 2017,time will tell .

[snowman65]

Rgem is getting close also

What is the Rgem?

[don]

Its a high resolution model based on the Canadian.

[Kingwood36]

Rgem is getting close also

What is the Rgem?

A model

[Stormlover2020]

18z nam on board

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=84

[Kingwood36]

18z nam on board

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=84

Ya but south of i-10 gets nada..we need all of south east Texas to get some

[Stormlover2020]

Lol lol I hear ya I’m north of I 10 lol