January 2021

[don]

Still enough time for that low to move away from the coast?

Certainly its only one model run, and the 12Z GFS so far is the only model that trended closer to the coast with the gulf low.

[jasons2k]

Here’s an interesting article about the SSW event:

https://www.studyfinds.org/extreme-wint ... c-warning/

[TexasBreeze]

I would cash out now on the CMC model! Would be worth going a little bit out of the way to see that!

[don]

LOL yep and I would bet there would be snow further south than what it depicts right now.
With most of the snow events Ive seen around here the models are usually always too warm a few days out with these events.And then they correct themselves once we get into the short range of the event.

[don]

12z ICON shows what would be a major winter storm for central and southeast Texas fwiw.

[Kingwood36]

12z ICON shows what would be a major winter storm for central and southeast Texas fwiw.

Whats the yellow mean?

[Cpv17]

12z ICON shows what would be a major winter storm for central and southeast Texas fwiw.

Whats the yellow mean?

Rain.

[Kingwood36]

12z ICON shows what would be a major winter storm for central and southeast Texas fwiw.

Whats the yellow mean?

Rain.

Oh so everyone would get snow and I'd be stuck with rain lol just my luck

[don]

12z EURO looks to be in between the 12z CMC and GFS.

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile, SE Texas is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm....

[Cpv17]

12z Euro ensemble mean trended much snowier across the state.

[Belmer]

Meanwhile, SE Texas is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm....

We sure are -

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM
until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a cold front surging into
southeast Texas. These storms will pose a risk of locally damaging
winds, large hail, and a tornado or two through the afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Palacios TX to 50 miles east southeast of Huntsville TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Hart

ww0002_radar.gif

[Kingwood36]

12z Euro ensemble mean trended much snowier across the state.

Not much snow here it looks like

[Cpv17]

12z Euro ensemble mean trended much snowier across the state.

Not much snow here it looks like

It’s trended snowier for southeast Texas compared to yesterday but if you’re talking about where you live in Freeport, yeah, very slim chance. Would take a heck of a setup to see snow along the coast. 2004 was the only time I’ve seen that.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah sure Is better for south east Texas, real simple south of i10 ur usually crap out of luck

[Kingwood36]

Yeah sure Is better for south east Texas, real simple south of i10 ur usually crap out of luck

Thanks for the encouraging words lol

[Cromagnum]

Northern half of that squall is packing some heat. Waiting to see what the southern half does.

[don]

Yea this squall line seems like it means business, and unfortunately its coming in around rush hour.

[jabcwb2]

Any video you folks can share of storm coming? Thanks!

[Cromagnum]

Don't like how this looks.