December 2020

[Cpv17]

A streamer huh? Is that looking possible

Yeah. Lows draw in cold air from up north all the time. Euro is a no for us (not even close either) but still has some decent rain.

[Kingwood36]

The weather god giveth...the weather gods taketh away lol

[DoctorMu]

I have had a total of 6 inches of rainfall with just the last 2 cold fronts (not dry...lol) that came down. Today's front will have moisture with it and models are showing a good bit of moisture with the big front around the New Year. Also we are below average temp wise for the month of December because the cold has stuck around. I look for this trend to continue as we push into January.

This is a good winter type pattern for us in Southeast Texas. Wintry weather events are rare down here but if it is to happen, I'm liking this pattern setting up for January.

Meh

I was talking strictly of the long range, from early January and beyond - the true Nina climo kicks in, and the spigot shuts completely for the rest of winter through spring.

Your rainfall totals don't mean anything to me, since you always have spots that over or under perform with any given event. Same goes with temperature averages - though a bit below average still yields plenty of nice 60s and 70s regardless. But in any rate, these current winter conditions with all these fronts and rain events are a complete anomaly for La Nina . Hence why I say that the winter lovers better cash in now ... while they still can ...

LoL.. give it a break already. Go troll somewhere else please.

I thought true climo was supposed to kick in last month? DFTT

[Cpv17]

The weather god giveth...the weather gods taketh away lol

Idk. The pattern over the next few weeks looks good so even if this one doesn’t produce for us there should be more chances.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian still strong with the fantasy for we NW counties.

The 12z GFS run brings in some NW county mischief.

[DoctorMu]

Euro keeping it fantasy in the Hill Country. If this becomes reality, I'd still expect a steep gradient from NW to SE on anything wintry.

UK is buying in - steep gradient near the Brazos Co. line. The next few runs *could* be interesting. We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

GFS run...

[Cpv17]

Euro keeping it fantasy in the Hill Country. If this becomes reality, I'd still expect a steep gradient from NW to SE on anything wintry.

UK is buying in - steep gradient near the Brazos Co. line. The next few runs *could* be interesting. We'll see.

That’s really not even close enough to the majority of southeast Texas for me to be excited about. Still a ways to go though. GFS looks a little better.

[DoctorMu]

Euro keeping it fantasy in the Hill Country. If this becomes reality, I'd still expect a steep gradient from NW to SE on anything wintry.

UK is buying in - steep gradient near the Brazos Co. line. The next few runs *could* be interesting. We'll see.

That’s really not even close enough to the majority of southeast Texas for me to be excited about. Still a ways to go though. GFS looks a little better.

Timing and depth of the cold air are everything. Brazos, Grimes, Burleson, Robertson, Milam, and possibly Madison, Walker, Montgomery have an outside chance. Winter storms the past 2-3 years have overperformed east of where expected.

[Cpv17]

Euro keeping it fantasy in the Hill Country. If this becomes reality, I'd still expect a steep gradient from NW to SE on anything wintry.

UK is buying in - steep gradient near the Brazos Co. line. The next few runs *could* be interesting. We'll see.

That’s really not even close enough to the majority of southeast Texas for me to be excited about. Still a ways to go though. GFS looks a little better.

Timing and depth of the cold air are everything. Brazos, Grimes, Burleson, Robertson, Milam, and possibly Madison, Walker, Montgomery have an outside chance. Winter storms the past 2-3 years have overperformed east of where expected.

True. I’m still waiting for those big strong 1045mb+ highs to start popping up in our source region on the models. Haven’t seen any yet.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A powerful upper level storm system will move into Texas by the middle of this week.


Main threats for SE TX will focus around heavy rainfall and some severe weather with some low mention of mixed precipitation well north and west of Houston on NYE.

Closed upper level low off the southern CA coast this morning will begin to slowly move ESE and then E across the SW US and northern MX and approach TX by Wednesday. A northern stream trough will send a cold front into TX on Wednesday with a decent push of cold Canadian air behind this front. The southern stream upper trough deepens and becomes a closed and briefly cut-off upper level low near the TX Big Bend Wednesday into early Thursday. This feature will force a surface low to form along the surging cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday over the lower TX coast that moves NE on NYE.

Moisture will slowly deepen over the region over the next 48 hours with PWS increasing into the 1.5-1.7 inch range by Wednesday as sustained southerly flow allows an established Gulf air mass to move into the region. Expecting little rainfall today and Tuesday with little to no lift in place. This begins to change on Wednesday as lift begins to increase along and ahead of the approaching upper trough and cold front. Given a long duration return flow period and heating on Wednesday, the air mass will begin to become unstable by early to mid afternoon. Low level jet of 40 kts will be positioned over the region, but the incoming front is looking slower and slower in guidance and may not reach the area until Wednesday evening. Severe parameters will there on Wednesday afternoon in the warm sector over the region with strong turning with height and somewhat favorable thermodynamic profiles…however there appears to be little in the warm sector to induce lift until the front arrives and that may be after the best severe weather parameters are met Wednesday afternoon. For now SPC has areas west of I-45 outlooked in a marginal risk for severe storms with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary threats.

Other threat will be heavy to at times excessive rainfall especially on Wednesday night into Thursday (NYE) morning. Pattern features a deep upper trough over NE MX with a slow moving and strong frontal interface over SE TX during this period. Upper level flow become increasing parallel to the front which will likely result in slow moving or training showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will certainly be in place for heavy rainfall, but the amount and severity of the convection remains in question. Will broad brush 1-2 inches for the entire region and 3-4 inches in isolated locations. Think the best chances for the most rainfall will be east of I-45 and north of I-10 or across our NE counties. Much of the area will be able to handle the expected rainfall amounts, but responses are likely on area watersheds as this time of year tends to focus more run-off due to low evaporation rates and dead/dormant vegetation.

If you want “snow” in portions Texas this is also the pattern you want to see. Strong cold front will be off the coast on NYE morning with a cold air mass advecting across all of the state however the upper level trough is still back near Big Bend at this time lifting lots of moisture into and over the incoming cold air mass at the surface. Models continue to show a stronger and slower upper level system which is increasing the chances…mainly west and north of SE TX…that rain will mix with or transition to sleet/snow on NYE. While the incoming air mass is not overly cold…30’s and 40’s…dynamical cooling associated with the core of the upper level low will track from the Big Bend area toward the ARKLATX area on NYE. Under and to the northwest of the core of the upper low it is increasingly likely that there will be some sort of precipitation transition. The track of the upper low becomes critical in the precipitation type over SE TX, with much of our area likely on the SE side of the feature…the “warm” side…with just a cold rain. However those locations from Columbus to Huntsville and NW may be close enough to the core of the low for rain to mix with sleet/snow. A look at the forecast soundings does show a “warm nose” in the 800mb level around College Station NYE which would tend to favor more sleet than snow. There are many questions with this part of the forecast, but there is a low potential for some mixed phase precipitation across our NW counties NYE.

[Kingwood36]

So basically nothing here like always lol

[don]

The trajectory of the cold core is too far to the north.We need the cold core to take more of a southerly track, if we want to see snow here in southeast Texas. Saying that, i wouldn't state "like always" when Southeast Texas has seen plenty of wintry precip events over the last decade considering the latitude we're at.

[snowman65]

So you're saying there's a chance....for someone else lol. Cold on lots of rain here to end 2020. Wouldnt expect anything less.

[Cpv17]

Yeah I thought the track of the low was going to end up further south. It’s trending the wrong way with each passing model run.

[Kingwood36]

As long as Dallas misses out im good lol

[tropiKal]

The trajectory of the cold core is too far to the north.We need the cold core to take more of a southerly track, if we want to see snow here in southeast Texas. Saying that, i wouldn't state "like always" when Southeast Texas has seen plenty of wintry precip events over the last decade considering the latitude we're at.

Meh, no one cares. The more it goes away, the better.

[redneckweather]

The trajectory of the cold core is too far to the north.We need the cold core to take more of a southerly track, if we want to see snow here in southeast Texas. Saying that, i wouldn't state "like always" when Southeast Texas has seen plenty of wintry precip events over the last decade considering the latitude we're at.

Meh, no one cares. The more it goes away, the better.

Serious wide spread heavy rain with the possibility of wintry precip on the backside with good cold air settling in. How does it feel to be wrong all the time?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The trajectory of the cold core is too far to the north.We need the cold core to take more of a southerly track, if we want to see snow here in southeast Texas. Saying that, i wouldn't state "like always" when Southeast Texas has seen plenty of wintry precip events over the last decade considering the latitude we're at.

Meh, no one cares. The more it goes away, the better.

Serious wide spread heavy rain with the possibility of wintry precip on the backside with good cold air settling in. How does it feel to be wrong all the time?

I’ll take 40 and rain over 75 and muggy 47 times out of 10

[Cpv17]

Models are looking real good for some rain. Looks like at least 2” for just about everyone. Very impressive looking totals in the Dallas area. Some nice snows out in west central Texas. Told my uncle in Mason that he could get some snow this week.