October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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It’s getting muggy outside. Definitely feels different than pre-Beta.
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Rip76
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:08 pm It’s getting muggy outside. Definitely feels different than pre-Beta.
Definitely.

93.1 W eh.
AtascocitaWX
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rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Really, that would be a epic fail from the models if that pans out.

So what’s the latest on the trough that’s supposed to be pulling Delta ?
rselby0654
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This is no Laura. The models clearly don’t have a solid handle on this system. There are more variables at play. Keep watching everyone!
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djmike
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So are any of the models still nudging this west a hair or have they all stopped western slight shifts?
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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556
WTNT21 KNHC 081453
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO SABINE PASS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO SABINE PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Cromagnum
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rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Based on what exactly? There is a mountain of data that supports a turn north, then northeast.
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tireman4
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 081454
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this
morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense
overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports
from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide
eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial
intensity of 90 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This
should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected
to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most
likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall,
the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has
only minor tweaks from the previous one.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and
based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength.
Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various
rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and
the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity
guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear
developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall,
and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be
noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors
of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana
coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the
global and hurricane regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to
grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding
are likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with
additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 24.0N 92.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
TXWeatherMan
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rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Chances of that happening are almost zero.
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jasons2k
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:19 pm
rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Chances of that happening are almost zero.
Correct. Such a miss wouldn’t be just a failure of the models, but also just about every professional meteorologist, including those at the NHC. Just don’t see it happening.
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:16 pm
rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Based on what exactly? There is a mountain of data that supports a turn north, then northeast.
Exactly. If this thing hit anywhere west of say Port Arthur, it would be a disastrous fail by the models, meteorologists everywhere and the NHC. I don't think that will happen. It does make me wonder though, when was the last time the track shifted hundreds of miles a day before landfall?
javakah
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rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:14 pm This is no Laura. The models clearly don’t have a solid handle on this system. There are more variables at play. Keep watching everyone!
Er, what? The models are largely in agreement, just mostly disagreeing about probably 30 miles east or west. The models were having absolute fits though with Laura.
Cromagnum
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javakah wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:27 pm
rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:14 pm This is no Laura. The models clearly don’t have a solid handle on this system. There are more variables at play. Keep watching everyone!
Er, what? The models are largely in agreement, just mostly disagreeing about probably 30 miles east or west. The models were having absolute fits though with Laura.
Trust the NHC. They nailed the Laura landfall within 50 miles if memory serves, maybe even better than that.
Scott747
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It's taken a pretty good job to the w as it follows the building convection wrapping around the nw. Blended motion is still around 305/310. Needs to start heading more on a 315/320 fairly soon to avoid crossing 94w.
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don
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Yea i don't see this coming anymore west than the Sabine,Jefferson county at the extreme.I do expect impacts though to be a little more locally than they were with Laura.There could be some decent rain bands and possibly tropical storm wind gust as far west as the I-45 corridor.Wouldn't surprise me if a tropical storm warning was issued later today for some inland counties.
Stormlover2020
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Keep us updated scott
AtascocitaWX
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:22 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:19 pm
rselby0654 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm Freeport, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston could be where landfall happens. I’m concerned that it’s too late in the game for it to make such a sharp turn. We need to keep a close eye and be prepared.
Chances of that happening are almost zero.
Correct. Such a miss wouldn’t be just a failure of the models, but also just about every professional meteorologist, including those at the NHC. Just don’t see it happening.

Agree but if it keeps tracking pass 94W then I would start to worry for Beaumont /PA area.
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jasons2k
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AtascocitaWX wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:34 pm Agree but if it keeps tracking pass 94W then I would start to worry for Beaumont /PA area.
Yep, this is true. It needs to begin gaining some more latitude or it starts to get boxed-in. I don't see it coming right at Galveston though (and especially Matagorda).
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tireman4
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don wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:33 pm Yea i don't see this coming anymore west than the Sabine,Jefferson county at the extreme.I do expect impacts though to be a little more locally than they were with Laura.There could be some decent rain bands and possibly tropical storm wind gust as far west as the I-45 corridor.Wouldn't surprise me if a tropical storm warning was issued later today for some inland counties.
I agree and the NHC intimated that as such with the widening windfield as it approaches the coast...

Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana
coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the
global and hurricane regional models.
Texashawk
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I feel like it’s been almost heading just north of due west (maybe 285) for the last hour or two. At the speed it’s going wobbles have more impact down the line. I too share concerns about the 94 degree line if it doesn’t gain some latitude immediately...
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