October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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Wow
Andrew
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:34 pm May be seeing NW now, and some possible eye making an appearance.
According to recon, we are still closer to the WNW versus NW but like you said the faster it starts gaining latitude the better for SE Texas.
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Rip76
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Andrew wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:50 pm
Rip76 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:34 pm May be seeing NW now, and some possible eye making an appearance.
According to recon, we are still closer to the WNW versus NW but like you said the faster it starts gaining latitude the better for SE Texas.
What a sight on an early October night. This ain’t no Jerry.
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:51 pm
Andrew wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:50 pm
Rip76 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:34 pm May be seeing NW now, and some possible eye making an appearance.
According to recon, we are still closer to the WNW versus NW but like you said the faster it starts gaining latitude the better for SE Texas.
What a sight on an early October night. This ain’t no Jerry.
Luckily, in regard to SE Texas time is on our side and having a storm tracking to the north/NW during landfall really helps us out locally. FIngers crossed
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Stormlover2020
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Nam has shifted west, Scott and Andrew could that be a trend?
Scott747
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Yes it's the NAM but this close in it can't be totally discounted. Much like the 18z ICON the trough isn't as aggressive in picking up Beta. A good bit further w and looks like landfall near or just e of the border.
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Here is the most recent recon fixes FYI
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm Yes it's the NAM but this close in it can't be totally discounted. Much like the 18z ICON the trough isn't as aggressive in picking up Beta. A good bit further w and looks like landfall near or just e of the border.
Yea I was noticing that too. Something to keep an eye on to see if the GFS and ECMWF pick up on it.
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Scott747
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And they at least acknowledge the wnw motion in the latest disco. ;)
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:07 pm And they at least acknowledge the wnw motion in the latest disco. ;)

Hard to ignore the motion for much of the day. The earlier runs of the ECMWF indicated this would happen. I suspect we will start to see the NW movement here soon though.
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Rip76
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm Yes it's the NAM.
Such a great quote from a few years back.
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Andrew wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:08 pm
Scott747 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:07 pm And they at least acknowledge the wnw motion in the latest disco. ;)

Hard to ignore the motion for much of the day. The earlier runs of the ECMWF indicated this would happen. I suspect we will start to see the NW movement here soon though.
I’m not so sure you’ll ever see much of a NW movement from this. Could be more wnw to then straight N?
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:16 pm
Andrew wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:08 pm
Scott747 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:07 pm And they at least acknowledge the wnw motion in the latest disco. ;)

Hard to ignore the motion for much of the day. The earlier runs of the ECMWF indicated this would happen. I suspect we will start to see the NW movement here soon though.
I’m not so sure you’ll ever see much of a NW movement from this. Could be more wnw to then straight N?
All day tomorrow models and the NHC indicate we should see the NW movement before turning north. The storm still has to rotate around the ridging to the east, the key is when that happens.
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 072331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs, looking at increasing high clouds moving northward
across the area overnight partly associated with the Hurricane Delta
circulation. Have the area staying VFR for this package with the increasing
possibility of a line of SHRA and/or possible TSRA entering the picture
near the coast maybe before sunrise. Activity that does develop should
be able to work its way inland as the day progresses. Expecting we`ll
have better chances of SHRA/TSRA along with the potential for MVFR ceilings
Thursday night through Friday as Delta moves northward toward the Louisiana
coast. Light mainly N to NE winds tonight will become NE and increase
during the day tomorrow. Again, stronger winds and wind gusts are anticipated
to enter the picture Thursday night and Friday in association with
Delta`s circulation. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...

The dominant question of this forecast period will, of course, be
Hurricane Delta as it makes its way across the Gulf of Mexico
towards the northern Gulf Coast, with an anticipated landfall on
Friday, likely on the Louisiana coast. This track comes close to
our area, and requires us to watch it carefully for any deviation
to the west, which would increase the impact of the storm in our
area.

At this time, a tropical storm watch is in effect for all Gulf
waters, Galveston Bay, and the coastal areas around Galveston Bay
as the storm`s wind field may expand greatly as it approaches the
coast, pushing tropical storm force winds out far enough to graze
this part of Southeast Texas. Additionally, the storm is expected
to generate high seas that may cause coastal flooding with
inundations of 1-3 feet down the Texas coast.

Given the proximity of the forecast track to our area, please
continue to keep up with the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and our office into the weekend - particularly in
the Galveston Bay area.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...

With surface high pressure lingering over the region, it should be a
mostly dry/quiet/not as cool night for most of SE TX. Isolated show-
ers (associated with HurricaneDelta) could develop and move into our
coastal waters...and perhaps some of our coastal counties overnight.
This coverage should be increasing through tomorrow morning as Delta
tracks into the central/northern Gulf. While the latest NHC forecast
has Delta landfalling around the SW LA coast by the end of the week,
we should see POPs increase tomorrow afternoon over SE TX...with the
highest numbers over the eastern and the coastal portions of the CWA
then trending lower to the west and north due to its proximity.

Lows temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s far
inland to the lower and mid 70s over the southern half of the area.
Tomorrow will be another warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s
with some locations near 90. Increasing low-level moisture will also
make for rather humid conditions by tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Thursday night, we expect Delta to be a major hurricane again,
making its way northward across the western Gulf of Mexico. Its
track will bring the storm very close to our area - enough that,
should its wind field grow as we are expecting when it draws
closer to the coast, tropical storm force winds can push out far
enough to impact our Gulf waters and a small portion of land
around Galveston Bay.

Since we will be on the west side of the storm, the anticipated
winds will mitigate concern for winds away from the coast.
However, this is a path particularly well suited for seeing
stronger winds on Gulf facing coast earlier on, then on the west
side of Galveston Bay and the bay side of Galveston Island as the
storm passes and winds become offshore with a maximized fetch
across the Bay.

Because of the distance from the center of the storm and
frictional effects of winds over land, we`ve kept the tropical
storm watch restricted to the coastal areas that will see the best
shot for the strongest winds. The main concern here, of course, is
that the potential for those tropical storm winds would bleed
inland should the storm make a jog more to the west.

For now, I am pretty confident in the NHC track, which is positive
news for our area (of course, in the Gulf, positive news for some
is always bad news for another, and unfortunately, that will go to
the beleaguered Lousiana coastline). The bigger question will
likely be how large the wind field itself will be as the storm
arrives. Those in the watch area will definitely want to be
keeping a close on the storm, and making appropriate preparations.
It would also behoove those near the watch area - Trinity,
northern Liberty, inland Harris, inland Galveston, Brazoria,
namely - to also be keeping an eye on things to ensure that the
situation does not change to involve them more significantly.

Beyond the influence of Delta, we`re also looking to the northwest
for the potential of a cold front to pass early next week. With
bigger fish to fry, there`s not been a ton of time to analyze this
front in depth. But it seems quite fair to say that we should
look to see modestly cooler air, but notably drier air for the
middle of next week. While this should give us some relief for
afternoon high temperatures, it`s more likely that the biggest
impact for our area will be to allow overnight temperatures to
drop a bit more thanks to the dry air.

MARINE...

The close approach of Delta will have significant impact on Gulf
waters in the area. Confidence is increasing in a track that
should keep hurricane force winds outside of our waters (though
uncertainty in the size of the wind field does not take this off
the table in the upper offshore waters). However, tropical storm
force winds look likely in the upper Gulf waters and probably
Galveston Bay. They are also a solid possibility in the lower Gulf
waters as well for the window in which winds have a more
favorable fetch from the east.

Look for seas of roughly 7-10 feet in the nearshore waters, and
15-20 feet in the offshore waters as the storm passes, with long
period waves. At the coast, the influence of the storm`s surge
with wave run-up will cause concern for coastal flooding for
vulnerable spots near the water - areas like Highway 87 at 124 on
Bolivar Peninsula immediately leaps to mind. But, with the recent
effect on protective dunes by the landfall of TS Beta, Blue Water
Highway will also vulnerable, and possibly even all the way down
to Matagorda Bay because of this storm`s expected large wind
field. Because of this, there is a coastal flood watch for all of
the upper Texas coast (and farther down the coast, as administered
by neighboring offices).

As always, it will be important to keep apprised of the latest
forecast information from NHC and our office in the next few days,
as any changes in the forecast will influence the impacts felt in
our marine areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 87 69 81 64 / 10 30 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 72 87 72 79 68 / 10 40 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 74 81 71 / 20 50 50 60 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Southern Liberty.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Scott747
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0z ICON and GFS with a subtle shift w but otherwise the same.

Latest recon fix finally shows a nw jog.
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Rip76
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I see the NW jog now.
Andrew
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FWIW CMC coming in further west too.
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Scott747
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Ukie is a little further w.
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Starting to think that someone in Lake Charles must have monumentally pissed off some deity or something. Ouch.
Scott747
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HWRF is a little further w, near Grand Chenier.
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