October 2020

[Cromagnum]

And west again it keeps trending.

[tireman4]

Nice find here by Levi. If you look at the 37-GHz images from the same overpass, they suggest the low-levels of the original eyewall have already significantly weakened. Minimal signs of the old 2 nmi inner core. The small size of the core may allow this ERC to complete quickly. https://t.co/R886qmWDv5 pic.twitter.com/45hapfMgUf
-- Michael Fischer (@MikeFischerWx) October 6, 2020

[tireman4]

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 6
Location: 18.9°N 84.1°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[Kingwood36]

This isn't looking good...I hope this turns

[Scott747]

Take the 18z runs off. The show begins with the 0z runs and all the extra data that will be ingested.

They have stopped mentioning the trough over Texas and now it's been more over the south central us. Depending on how far the ridge extends out from Florida it might allow a further w movement before it gets picked up towards Louisiana. For 'now' we look protected save for the border and e.

0z runs will give some clarity....

[DoctorMu]

Cat 1 to 145 mph in 12 hours. Oh my!

Looks very healthy with that monster feederband. Will probably follow the band.



https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... hash=25756

[DoctorMu]

No Sally by the alley.

[Pas_Bon]

This thing is a monster. Holy Crap....

[javakah]

I asked it before and didn’t get a response when it was more of a hypothetical, but now that the situation seems likely to become a reality, I’ll ask again in case anyone has seen an answer.

Usually particularly strong/destructive land-falling hurricanes have their names retired. What happens if one of these Greek alphabet named storms fit that bill. Would they retire ‘Delta’?

[Pas_Bon]

I asked it before and didn’t get a response when it was more of a hypothetical, but now that the situation seems likely to become a reality, I’ll ask again in case anyone has seen an answer.

Usually particularly strong/destructive land-falling hurricanes have their names retired. What happens if one of these Greek alphabet named storms fit that bill. Would they retire ‘Delta’?

Yes

[TXWeatherMan]

HWRF looks more West

[Tx2005]

I asked it before and didn’t get a response when it was more of a hypothetical, but now that the situation seems likely to become a reality, I’ll ask again in case anyone has seen an answer.

Usually particularly strong/destructive land-falling hurricanes have their names retired. What happens if one of these Greek alphabet named storms fit that bill. Would they retire ‘Delta’?

I think I saw on Twitter earlier that it would be retired as “Delta 20” and they would continue to use Delta in future years.

[Cromagnum]

They would just call it Delta 2020. As far as I know they do not retire Greek names.

[TexasBreeze]

It is crazy thinking about this question, but the scenario is probably coming soon. They should have names to fill in the missing letters in the alphabet, or even do what other basins do and just go through names one by one without cycling every 6 yrs.

[Andrew]

I asked it before and didn’t get a response when it was more of a hypothetical, but now that the situation seems likely to become a reality, I’ll ask again in case anyone has seen an answer.

Usually particularly strong/destructive land-falling hurricanes have their names retired. What happens if one of these Greek alphabet named storms fit that bill. Would they retire ‘Delta’?

I think I saw on Twitter earlier that it would be retired as “Delta 20” and they would continue to use Delta in future years.

I also think this hasn't been officially discussed by the NWS yet and was a topic of discussion during their yearly meeting to find a resolution to this problem. Unfortunately, with how active this year is we are in unknown territory.

[tireman4]

A storm of this magnitude in Octiber is mind boggling. If this were climo, I would say a Texas hit would be highly unlikely. This is 2020. . This is only the second time we have hit the Greek alphabet. To say this is a normal season is not even close. 2020 has said, take the book on climo, burn it and use it for compost.

[Andrew]

18z ECMWF further west and slower compared to 12z

[Stormlover2020]

18z euro farther west

[tireman4]

18z ECMWF further west and slower compared to 12z

Boy Andrew..climo is not working here..lol

[Cromagnum]

Apparently an EWRC and shear messed up the core structure and put the brakes on intensification (for now)