September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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FXUS64 KHGX 192207
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The rest of today and this evening will be pleasant. Highs will stay
in the mid to upper 80s and breezy conditions across the CWA. Lows
tonight will reach the mid 60s in the northern counties and low to
mid 70s along the coast. Sadly, this is all due to Tropical Storm
Beta creeping near the SETX coastline. Though landfall is not until
Tuesday, the system has moved in from the southwest and was moving
away until today when it started to make the turn northwestward.
Tomorrow morning, coastal counties are expected to start seeing the
outer bands with higher chances of rain and winds increase along the
coastal counties. While the breezy conditions are expected to stay
along the coast tomorrow, some higher gusts could be felt inland as
far as the I-59 corridor.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Tropical Storm Beta is still moving towards the SETX coastline.
Beginning Sunday night, the chances of rain increase quite a bit
with POPs in the mid 90s along the coast and upper 80s along the I-
10 corridor. Northern counties still see 70s but will mainly be
effected by the bands rapping around the system and not just a
continuous rainfall. As the system continues to move through the
area POPs remain high through Wednesday. Most of the higher
accumulation will remain south of the I-10 corridor.

Winds are expected to be increasing as the storm moves into the area
Monday morning. Tropical Storm force winds will be expected in the
SE forecast area with lighter winds in the NW area. Thursday winds
are expected to decrease as the storm moves across the souther CWA.
Total rain amounts from the first onset through the weekend are
expected to be 20 inches in the southern counties with lower amounts
away from the coast. Northern counties are expecting up to 12
inches, with lower amounts in the far northern counties.

Current guidance has the storm moving out of the CWA on Thursday.
Winds will be decreasing in the western CWA on Wednesday afternoon
and over night, the eastern CWA will start to decrease. POPs will
also start decreasing Thursday morning and almost diminish by the
weekend. Through the first half of the week, highs will be in the
upper 70s in the northern counties and mid 80s coastal. Lows will
get to the upper 60s in the northern counties and the upper 70s
coastal. With the extra cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will
not be fluctuating too much until the system moves out of the area.
Thursday, the highs will increase to the mid to upper 80s and even
peak in the low 90s by Sunday. Lows will still be in the mid to
upper 60s for the northern counties and mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.TROPICAL...

Tropical Storm Beta makes its way to the SE Texas coast and is
expected to make landfall in the Matagorda Bay area on Tuesday. Upon
making landfall the storm is expected to turn northeastward along
the coastline. The center is expected to be in the southeastern CWA
on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, the current track has
the system downgraded to a depression over the southeastern Vernon
Parish, LA.

The main concerns with Tropical Storm Beta will be the prolonged
rainfall with coastal areas expected to reach over a foot of rain.
During high tide on Sunday and Tuesday is the most dangerous times
for storm surges and areas within those warnings should pay
attention to the forecast and to follow the advice of local
officials. The onset of tropical storm force winds are expected
Sunday late and expected to last through the first half of the week.

Seas in the coastal waters are expected to increase tomorrow to 10
to 20 ft seas with larger seas in the outer waters and moves into
the southwestern marine zones with 20-24ft seas through Monday. On
Tuesday, the seas are expected to be at 10-15ft as he system moves
along the coast just on shore. On Wednesday, southwestern marine
zones will start seeing seas subside to about 5 ft and by Thursday
morning, all marine zones will be around 5ft. Tropical storm force
winds will be felt in the outer marine zones as early as tomorrow
and last through most of Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions for the TAF sites but breezy today as TS Beta makes
the turn west to move towards the SE Texas coastline. Current
analysis has the storm making landfall in the vicinity of Matagorda
on Tuesday, then turning northeastward towards the Dickinson area and
being in that area Wednesday Morning. With that, tomorrow is when
the coastal TAF sites are looking to get impacted with the bands
from TS Beta with lower ceilings and rain. Depending on
intensification, some of the showers could be heavier and restrict
visibility to IFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 63 82 66 75 68 / 0 40 50 80 70
Houston (IAH) 68 80 70 78 71 / 30 60 70 80 80
Galveston (GLS) 74 84 77 84 78 / 60 80 90 90 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

Flash Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LW/WW/TC/BK
unome
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we have a Tropical Storm Warning and a Flash Flood Watch for our zip code in Cypress, 70 miles inland

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-95.6987
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Rip76
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Scott747 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:48 pm 18z HWRF makes landfall Monday morning in Matagorda Bay as a moderate TS. It doesn't drive it w like it has been and turns more to the n moving between Houston and Austin.
This is my current thinking as well.
TexasBreeze
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Was it supposed to be stationary today? Turned briefly then stopped.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:48 pm As long as we manage at least a couple inches of rain, I couldn't care less what this storm does otherwise.
Same here, as long as it doesn't turn into a hurricane and start causing real problems for people. We just need some rain from at least *one* tropical system this year.

Some of my thoughts this evening: This is a really difficult forecast in terms of intensity, the effect of the dry air, where any training bands set up, and for how long. We all know that if we have a tropical low to our west or southwest, it doesn't take long for training bands to start causing flooding issues.

I'm not expecting this storm to be a repeat of Don and I don't think this is going to dissipate and totally bust for SE Texas. So far, it reminds me a lot of TS Bill from 2015, but without the north hook after landfall. It's probably going to fight and struggle with that dry air the whole way, which should keep the intensity in check, but we still need to watch out for the potential flooding threat.

I think one of the keys will be whether or not Beta can establish a sustained core overnight into tomorrow morning. If the storm can establish a persistent, circular core and shear drops off, it has a much better chance of fighting off the dry air. If it continues to just pulse up and down into tomorrow, it's gonna run out of time....
Cpv17
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On the HWRF it moves out pretty fast. Probably wouldn’t be much of a problem if that verifies.
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Katdaddy
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I like what I see on the satellite IR imagine. Weak and fading away. Yes this could change overnight as we all know but I will take a little positivity.
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Rip76
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Poof?

So the winds we’re feeling tonight, are from what’s out there or from a “front?”
Or the pressure difference.
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Katdaddy
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The NE winds and drier air is thanks to TS Beta.
davidiowx
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Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!
Scott747
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It's hanging on right now. Recon obs are woeful. It's still a TS but a weak one. Can't see how they won't lower the intensity current and on approach. The continuing lack of movement may push back landfall.
Kingwood36
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:35 pm Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!
Tropical system normally get going at night time so let see what he does if he can establish a inner core and fight off some of that dry air
Cromagnum
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It looks like we are gonna wake up to nothing in the gulf at all. This doesn't even look like a depression right now.
davidiowx
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:37 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:35 pm Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!
Tropical system normally get going at night time so let see what he does if he can establish a inner core and fight off some of that dry air
For sure, but it’s gonna be a fight for sure. Just want some rain out of this, that’s about it!
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:38 pm It looks like we are gonna wake up to nothing in the gulf at all. This doesn't even look like a depression right now.

It’s def a storm; the LLC is there, albeit weak. Convection on the other hand is lacking and the million dollar question is whether or not it can build some over the next 24-48 hours. It’s a decent sized circulation and it takes time for circulations this size to get itself together, even in a good environment. The current environment isn’t favorable for it to strengthen much in the timeframe prior to land interaction.
Cromagnum
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I get that, but if you look at the IR and didn't already know a storm was brewing you wouldn't think anything was there.

Image
davidiowx
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...BETA FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of High Island, Texas
to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana.

The Tropical Storm Watch east of Intracoastal City Louisiana to
Morgan City Louisiana has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and
Corpus Christi Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta has
drifted toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) since
this morning. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast
to begin on Sunday, followed by a slow northwest to north motion
late Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will move toward the coast of Texas and potentially move inland
late Monday or early Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening
is anticipated once Beta moves inland Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Corpus
Christi Bay, Baffin Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4
ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late Sunday through
early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the central Louisiana coast tonight, and are possible within
the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches
across southern Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas, with 3 to 7
inches spreading northward into the Mid-South mid next week. Flash
and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding.
Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
Kingwood36
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So its moving nne...thought it made the turn west already?
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:18 pm So its moving nne...thought it made the turn west already?
That’s what I thought too. This thing has a lot of work to do. Nothing but a naked swirl. Dry air and wind shear is tearing Beta completely apart. Heck it might just be nothing but an open wave when it gets here.
Andrew
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Beta still has a well defined LLC based on IR and recon. Pulses like this often happen for weak storms like Beta that are being interfered with by shear and dry air.
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