With the rough year the globals have had it's easy to be dismissive of modeling. However it's still a significant part of how the NHC forecasts development and tracks. It's why they use a blend of model consensus aides like the TVCN etc...
I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.
If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.
September 2020:
Yes, I know. You guys are confused at what I’m trying to say. I’m only saying what the models are showing as of the latest runs. I have over 25 years of tracking the weather lol I know models will change, especially this year. I’m not ruling out anything.
I’m not model hugging. I’m only saying what the models are showing per the latest runs from what I saw.Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.
The 12z eps is all over Louisiana. Not sure if it bends back w after that though.
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It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt
I’m just glad we have something to talk about.Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:26 pm It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt
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Yeah no doubt, also watch the tvcn model also the hurricane center blends that in with path