September 2020:

[redneckweather]

That front MIGHT limp in to our northwest, north and central counties.

Currently mid 30's in Dalhart with north winds gusting 30+. We will get lucky to see that kind of weather all winter long.lol

[jasons2k]

Mid 30's with north winds gusting 30+ sounds miserable to me. Lived it up there for years. I'll pass.

50's, like they were saying, would be great. Mid-30's with wind, no thanks, especially in September.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers mainly southwest/west of the terminals this morning are
expected to expand as the day goes on, but only enough confidence
in specific impact to the westernmost sites CLL/LBX to add a TEMPO
on top of VC for now. This may be able to be refined at more sites
as the day evolves.

Otherwise, expecting that we should stay VFR throughout, though
some clouds at MVFR level are possible, and a ceiling isn`t
entirely out of the picture. Light easterly winds should
strengthen and become more southeasterly this afternoon before
easing again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020/...

.DISCUSSION...

The long-awaited cold front is at last in the state of Texas, and
will make its way southeast towards us through the day today,
finally working into the northwestern part of our area towards
Caldwell and College Station tonight. It will make its way
partially into the area tomorrow, though a wind shift of some sort
should make it to around the Gulf Coast. But for those in the
Houston metro coastward...it`s probably best to keep your
expectations to a wind shift and an increased chance of showers
and storms. This one probably doesn`t have the oomph to bring us
much noticeable relief. And hey, if this front overperforms and we
do get some drier and modestly cooler air? A happy surprise!




.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

We`ve got two areas of radar returns very early this morning - a
super light smattering of echoes up north, perhaps as we start to
see a bit more isentropic upglide ahead of the incoming frontal
wedge. Not sure how much of this is actually reaching the ground,
though - Bryan and Caldwell are reporting -RA but with no
accumulations. Meanwhile, at the coast, our nocturnal streamer
showers off the Gulf are a little more juiced up than usual!

We`ll likely get one more hot day across the area, though I`m
hoping cloud cover and convective development will keep us from
getting into the mid-90s today. And then, tonight...it`s front
time! Or, at least, the closest approximation of front time that
we`re going to get. There`s pretty good confidence that the front
will make its way into our area of responsibility tonight. But
precisely how far a post-frontal airmass gets into the area, well,
insert shrug.gif here. Unless my exceptional forecast skill (read:
dumb luck) gets the precise placement and timing of the front
exactly, I`m going to bust miserably with my forecast for part of
the area. All I have good confidence in is increased potential for
showers and storms, the far northwest getting a brief, blissful
taste of drier and modestly cooler air late tonight into Thursday,
and the coast staying more or less in a version of late summer -
seasonably hot and humid, with a sharp gradient somewhere between
the two.

I`m not sure if all the details are correct, but the TTU-WRF at
least captures the sentiment of this front quite accurately: lower
theta-e air works its way in on offshore winds until the point
tomorrow where it runs out of gas, and starts getting shoved back
by the higher theta-e marine airmass. This forecast is not all
doom and gloom for our area, though - it does appear that the
most significant rains will occur well inland of our area, which
does unfortunately mean the potential for flash flooding back
towards the Hill Country and its vicinity, per our neighboring
offices.

Look for Thursday night to likely be the coolest of the week to
finish off the short term part of the forecast. From here on out,
I turn it to the long term forecaster.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

The entirety of the long term can be summarized as "blah". Summer
will still be sticking around across southeast Texas through the
next week at least. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s every
day with lows in the 70s, or if your along the coast, low 80s. PWATs
will remain around 2 inches through the entire period providing the
atmosphere with plenty of moisture to trigger afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves will help provide some extra coverage
of showers and thunderstorms on Friday across the northern portion
of the area, then storm activity will remain largely near the coast
for the remainder of the weekend. A large ridge over the Four
Corners region this weekend will break down by the start of next
week giving way for a broad upper level low to develop over northern
Texas/Oklahoma Monday into Tuesday of next week. This may provide
more upper level support for storms to develop across the entire CWA
for the start of the work week compared to the more coastal showers
that the weekend will see.


.MARINE...

Marginal SCEC conditions on the lower waters with winds generally
closer to 15 knots, but some pushing closer to 20 knots, and seas
around four feet. This should continue for much of the night, and
ease up in the morning. Similar conditions again for tonight, but
with the pressure gradient likely to be a little bit looser as a
cold front sags into SE Texas, may be able to get away without
caution flags again.

Speaking of that front, it should approach closely enough to boost
coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, and
also back winds to easterly and northeasterly into early next
week, but that`s probably about it. With flow becoming fairly
light, we should probably expect winds to become somewhat variable
this weekend and early next week as well - while generally out of
the east, we could see things back as much as an offshore wind,
and veer enough to become an onshore wind at times. Look for a
more established light to moderate onshore wind to return later
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 69 86 68 88 / 60 30 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 92 78 94 74 93 / 40 20 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 91 80 90 / 20 30 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[DoctorMu]

That front MIGHT limp in to our northwest, north and central counties.

Currently mid 30's in Dalhart with north winds gusting 30+. We will get lucky to see that kind of weather all winter long.lol

Yeah, this is a weird setup with 30-50°F differences in temperature across the front draped over mid Texas. Models tend to underperform cold, shallow layers. The front could reach the Hill Country before fizzling, but there's a lot of energy and temp differences persisting. It could set up rain and slightly cooler temps in the NW counties. We'll see.

[jasons2k]

Well today sure made-up for yesterday. Almost a perfect setup with cells training from SE to NW over me, and still warm gulf inflow feeding into the lead cell as it keeps building.

.93” and counting...

[txbear]

Absolutely wretched outside. Just want a taste of those 40s and 50s I see. Ugh. Can’t even buy a drop of rain.

[DoctorMu]

Dark clouds to the West! Front lurking in the Hill Country Not counting on anything. Hmmm...if I mow in preparation will that draw or thwart the cold front gods??

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 092057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Short Term [Through Tomorrow]...

For the rest of today, some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly west of the I-45 corridor and some north of
Houston proper along I-45.Most of these cells are not very
organized and the build up of thunderstorms in the Sugar Land area
are dependent on a weak vort max that is expected to move more
northeasterly and out of the area overnight. By about 9pm, most
thunderstorm and precipitation in general will be out of the area;
either dissipated or moved off to the north.

So cold front tomorrow!!! Well technically, yes. A weak boundary is
approaching the area and overnight is expected to move into the
northwestern CWA. Depending on the guidance of choice depends on how
strong and fast. The HRRR is trending more aggressive and over
dries and cools things down on the extreme side. Sadly, thats not
the case so after blending some of the higher resolution guidance
and a dash of the HRRR, the forecast seems more realistic for an
early September front. The boundary is expected to get into the
northwestern CWA overnight and provide some relief from the
temperatures. In the system is expected to stall or at least slow
down and weaken. So, with that lingering in the area west of I-45,
its looking like another wet day tomorrow. Scattered showers will
be expected through most of the day tomorrow and tomorrow evening
and some convective build up as the front creeps to the coastline
through the day. 35

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...

With the latest high-resolution guidance showing a more
progressive frontal boundary moving into SE Texas overnight
tonight, have slightly decreased overnight lows on Thursday across
the northwestern zones. Behind the boundary, look for a shift to
offshore winds. While this won`t give us that initial taste of
autumn that most of us were probably hoping for this week,
advection should at least provide slightly cooler and drier
conditions. While coastal locations should still see lows near 80
on Thursday night, the Brazos Valley should see the upper 60s
while the metro area will dip into the lower 70s.

Heading into the weekend and into the early part of next week,
things should continue to feel summer-like across SE Texas (albeit
with slightly less oppressive humidity). Look for highs in the low
to mid 90s through the weekend as the aforementioned north winds
weaken and gradually develop a more easterly component through the
duration of the weekend. Despite this, lower dew point values in the
wake of the frontal boundary should keep heat indices right at the
cusp of 100 degrees. Global models continue to show a swath of
elevated PW values (2.0+ in) which should remain west of the I-45
corridor through the weekend. With convective temps looking
reachable, we should continue to see development of showers and
thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon hours as we`ve seen
over the past couple of days. By Sunday, moisture values recover
across the entirety of the CWA as the offshore pattern erodes and as
a result we expect greater coverage of developing showers and
storms.

By late Sunday, an upper trough axis will approach from the west as
the dominant upper low situated over the Northern Plains pushes off
to the northeast. With moisture remaining abundant, should see
widespread shower and storm development continuing into the
beginning of the work week ahead. Things will continue to feel
summer-like, at least for a bit longer, with daytime highs remaining
in the low to mid 90s. Cady

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will keep the southwest forecast areas at marginal SCEC
conditions but winds will stay around 15 knots through the
night.Bays could see some channeling as well but winds will stay
around 15 knots with some possible higher gusts. Seas will be around
3ft with some 4ft seas in the southwest areas for the night.
Tomorrow morning winds and seas subside to 10-15 knots and seas at 2-
3ft. Tomorrow as the weak cold front approaches, winds will back
more easterly as it stalls inland and finally pushes through the
waters tomorrow night into Friday morning. Winds will then go
northerly with some higher speeds in the morning as the systems
pushes through the coastal waters. After the push on Friday, winds
stay northeasterly and seas will subside from 2-3ft to about 1-2ft
through the weekend. Monday night and into Tuesday, an increase in
wind speeds will build the seas back up to about 2-3ft. 35

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay mainly west for the
day. TAF sites will be looking VFR with some isolated instances
of MVFR visibility associated with heavier showers and or
thunderstorms. This evening most convective activity will stay to
the west of I-45 area with an appreciable vort max helping some
convective activity. Tonight, with the abundance of moisture, the
northern TAF sites (CLL/UTS/CXO) will be seeing some lower
ceilings in the IFR range to about 1500 ft with some ceilings
possible below 1000 ft. By around 16z the stratus will burn off
with VFR conditions for the day. Some showers and afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow but mainly in the
western areas as the cold front wedges against our area. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 68 79 67 87 70 / 50 30 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 92 72 93 76 / 10 30 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 86 79 91 82 / 20 40 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35/Cady

[tireman4]

That front MIGHT limp in to our northwest, north and central counties.

Currently mid 30's in Dalhart with north winds gusting 30+. We will get lucky to see that kind of weather all winter long.lol

As Srain likes to point out, Dalhart has a slight increase of elevation as compared to Houston...

Dalhart
Elevation‎: ‎3,983 ft (1,214 m)
Houston
Elevation‎: ‎80 ft (32 m)

It does make a difference, weatherwise

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That front MIGHT limp in to our northwest, north and central counties.

Currently mid 30's in Dalhart with north winds gusting 30+. We will get lucky to see that kind of weather all winter long.lol

As Srain likes to point out, Dalhart has a slight increase of elevation as compared to Houston...

Dalhart
Elevation‎: ‎3,983 ft (1,214 m)
Houston
Elevation‎: ‎80 ft (32 m)

It does make a difference, weatherwise

Dalhart also has the luxury of not being a concrete hell hole.

[unome]

Jeff working hard in LA, we are so lucky to have him as a local met - this guy is pure gold & the data he's getting is so important - heartbreaking for all our LA friends

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1

[DoctorMu]

That front MIGHT limp in to our northwest, north and central counties.

Currently mid 30's in Dalhart with north winds gusting 30+. We will get lucky to see that kind of weather all winter long.lol

As Srain likes to point out, Dalhart has a slight increase of elevation as compared to Houston...

Dalhart
Elevation‎: ‎3,983 ft (1,214 m)
Houston
Elevation‎: ‎80 ft (32 m)

It does make a difference, weatherwise

Dalhart also has the luxury of not being a concrete hell hole.

There's also nothing between Denver and Dalhart to stop a blue norther.

And the same latitude as Boone, NC at a similar altitude.

[Rip76]

Jeff working hard in LA, we are so lucky to have him as a local met - this guy is pure gold & the data he's getting is so important - heartbreaking for all our LA friends

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1

Yes total gold.

[TexasBreeze]

There is a lemon in the eastern Gulf...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This
system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the
vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level
conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend
while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Cpv17]

There is a lemon in the eastern Gulf...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This
system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the
vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level
conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend
while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Hopefully it gives us some rain. I’ve only had .70 now in the past 6 weeks.

[DoctorMu]

Slightest of wind shift to the NE.

[DoctorMu]

The cool air blasted through Hearne and Caldwell. It's so close.

[DoctorMu]

...and there it is.

Overperforming shallow, cool NW advection. 15 mph wind. 5°F drop in the last 10 minutes.

The front now is approaching a Madisonville to Brenham to Shiner line.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 101122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast is a muddled mess at the outset, with a weak cold front
slicing through the TAF sites. Behind the front, IFR conditions
prevail with low CIGs and some fog. Ahead of the front, VFR with
coastal showers. Of course, the front lies just west of IAH, which
could tip either way. Lean towards it staying on the warm side of
the front, with VCTS this afternoon. This could require
significant amending very quickly if the front does wobble
through the field.

Towards mid-day, all sites should improve to VFR, with a
smattering of showers and thunderstorms about, so VCs for all.
Think highest coverage will be closer to the coast, so have
TEMPO/prevailing for HOU and LBX. Though we will start to see
drier air start to clear things out, bring back MVFR CIGs late
tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/...

.DISCUSSION...

Our much-awaited front has arrived, with the Bryan/College Station
area reaping the benefits. This front has overperformed some, so a
bit of modestly cooler air may work in to the very western fringes
of the Houston metro. But for the vast majority of Houston and
coastward, we fall a little short this time.

The northwestern part of the area will not have much time to crow
about this early taste of fall, however, as the hot and humid
coastal airmass returns to dominate the area deep into the next
week. This occurs at least partly because of some sort of low
pressure area crossing westward across the Gulf of Mexico.
Development into a tropical cyclone is not a top concern, but also
can`t be ruled out yet. Regardless, this should boost moisture
levels in SE Texas and turn a relative lack of rain Friday and
Saturday more active in the new week, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms becoming a fairly routine fixture.




.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

`The front is here! The front is here!` I`m sure someone in
College Station would say, while I stew between two sites that
have yet again set a daily record for a warm minimum temperature.
Obs show that it`s actually a little tough to pin down precisely
where the front is exactly. Winds have shifted all the way to the
US-59/I-69 corridor in Houston. But it seems more likely that a
weak pre-frontal trough has zipped out ahead of the front itself
to cause this wind shift, as temperatures across the entire
Houston metro remain in the upper 70s, with dewpoints right up
there near the temps.

Brenham, College Station, and Madisonville have all fallen into
the low to mid 60s - and while some of that might be rain cooling,
we`ve got to have dewpoints fall that far as well, so it`s
probably fair to say the cold front has at least made it that far,
while Huntsville, Conroe, and Eagle Lake are still on the warm
side of the front. We should have several more hours for the front
to make as much progress as it can tonight, but its time is
probably also set. Once the sun comes up, we`ll likely see the
area just behind the front warm more effectively due to its drier
air, inducing frontolysis as the temperature gradient is
decreased. RIP front - you tried to make it to NWS Houston, but it
is not to be this time around.

Because the front did overperform, some of that heavier rain
post-front did drift into Burleson and Brazos counties, even
necessitating a small flood advisory in Burleson County. That rain
is on the wane, and while it looks to still continue for some time
with activity upstream, I`d expect that attention will be shifting
towards the coast as nocturnal streamer showers are already
beginning, and the diurnal trend begins anew in the coastal
airmass, unspoiled by this front. Eventually, some drier air will
filter in to the coast with the offshore winds, which should choke
off rain, and give us a fairly dry day on Friday. I do leave some
low PoPs in the southwest, as models suggest precipitable water
will be a little slow to come down there.

As far as temperatures go, today will be quite interesting. I
wouldn`t expect Caldwell and B/CS to get into the upper 70s, much
less crack 80, while temperatures near the coast are still likely
to rise to around 90 degrees. I even wonder if I might be going a
little low at Galveston with a forecast high of 91, as it always
seems to do well in these situations where the front doesn`t
really make it, but we still get offshore winds on the island.

While the current hours will likely be the coolest of the week
behind the front thanks to what meager cold advection we can
manage, spots on the warm side of the front will likely see their
coolest night Thursday night into Friday as some drier air does
filter in on those offshore winds, and allows modestly more
effective radiational cooling that night. Either way, Friday
should mark the beginning of the return to more summer-like
temperatures across the entire area.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The upper level low developing over the Four Corners Region in the
next few days will be ejecting into the Upper Midwest and into the
Great Lakes Region on Saturday while a very broad and weak ridge of
high pressure builds over southern CONUS. This will bring a
relatively dry day for us in Southeast Texas on Saturday. However,
PWATs will be remain in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, so an isolated
shower may still be possible thanks to daytime heating as
temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s.

We are looking into a prolonged period of cloudy, rainy weather
beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week as surge of
moist tropical air moves in. Shortwaves coming in from the Gulf
combined with daytime heating will enhance coverage of the showers
and thunderstorms. At the start of the week, an upper level low will
be coming into the northeastern Gulf from the Atlantic. This upper
level low will be moving into north central Gulf by midweek
enhancing showers and thunderstorms. An upper level trough digging
in from the northwest will eventually pick it up and drag it back to
the northeast by the end of the week, but it will be something to
keep an eye on in the coming days.

Temperatures next week will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as
cloud cover limits daytime heating. Another thing impacting daytime
heating is the fact that we are now entering into mid September and
the daytime hours and sun angle are both decreasing each day. Cloud
cover will be keeping the overnight lows on the warm side (mid to
upper 70s).


.MARINE...

Though the true front will not make it to the waters, a wind shift
will at least back winds to become mostly offshore by tonight,
persisting until winds become more east-northeasterly late
Saturday afternoon or Saturday night and start to gain at least a
small onshore component. Expect these winds to persist for much of
the week, along with a solid boost in moisture and rain chances as
a tropical low of some sort moves westward across the Gulf of
Mexico. Development into a tropical cyclone does not appear likely
at this time, but also can`t be ruled out - read more in the
Tropical section below. After it passes later in the week, onshore
winds should prevail.


.TROPICAL...

It`s September 10th, which is the climatological peak of the
Atlantic Hurricane Season, and you`d be able to tell that it`s
the peak by looking at the very active Tropical Weather Outlook
from the NHC. Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene continue to move
across the middle Atlantic Ocean, two AEWs with the potential of
development are about to enter the eastern Atlantic in the coming
days, a weak system off the North Carolina Coast has a 10 percent
chance of development, and then finally another system currently
in the northern Caribbean has a 20 percent chance of development
after it crosses into the eastern Gulf next week. While guidance
doesn`t strengthen this system much, upper level conditions are
looking favorable for development so its something to keep an eye
on. While this currently does not pose any threat to SE Texas, its
a good reminder that we are still in the hurricane season despite
all the talk of about cold fronts recently.


.CLIMATE...

There were two record high minimums set yesterday. Houston-Hobby
only recorded a low temperature of 80 degrees, beating the old
record high minimum of 79 degrees set back in 1961. Galveston had a
low temperature of 85 degrees, which beats the old record of 84
degrees set back in 1989.

A cold front went through College Station just before midnight last
night allowing the low temperature to drop to 67 degrees for the
day. This is the first time in 81 days (since June 20th) that the
temperature dropped below 70 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 69 86 69 91 / 30 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 90 74 94 75 96 / 60 50 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 79 91 81 92 / 40 30 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
TROPICAL...Fowler
CLIMATE...Fowler

[srainhoutx]

It would have been nice if that big bad cold front could have blasted off shore. Today is the peak date for Hurricane Season and the tropics are active.