August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
weatherguy425
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:25 pm

Yeah that nw quadrant of the Gulf will take a while to recover but I don’t think the rest of the Gulf will have too much of a problem recovering.
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)
The ridging over the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf.
Certainly something to watch!
Cpv17
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weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)
The ridging over the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf.
Certainly something to watch!
I prefer it that way, for sure. I just don’t want majors making landfall.
Kingwood36
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Not a drop south of i 10...it it suppose to stay like this?
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:39 pm Not a drop south of i 10...it it suppose to stay like this?
For the most part, yes. Well south of 10 and west of 45 anyway.
HurricaneMike
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I can't believe how intense this has become this close to landfall. Atleast Katrina peaked mid-day and hit the next morning. Laura is peaking super-close to landfall.
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI
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tireman4
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More inner-core lightning in #Laura, with the structure very suggestive of Wavenumber-2 mesovortices forcing convective bursts. What a powerful storm. pic.twitter.com/h9EDQhwRnH
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 26, 2020
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AtascocitaWX wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI
I think if you want to get down to the exact spot, Constance Beach may be a good bet.
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sambucol
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AtascocitaWX wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI
If it stays on a NW jog for much longer, where would Laura make landfall?
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tireman4
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I guess if you extrapolate it NW, then I would suppose Chambers County....but it will start its northward turn soon
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Laura  5 pm 08 26 2020.png
biggerbyte
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Well I am both relieved, yet shocked at the forecast here in Montgomery County. The tropical storm warning is gone with a 30% chance for rain on Thursday. LOL
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biggerbyte wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:26 pm Well I am both relieved, yet shocked at the forecast here in Montgomery County. The tropical storm warning is gone with a 30% chance for rain on Thursday. LOL
Same here in Cypress. Rain chances down to 30% for the next few days. Better chance of rain this weekend than from Laura.

Not saying that I want a hurricane, but some rain would be nice.
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tireman4
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Mid level water vapor shows a still expanding outflow and a progressively rounder eye becoming embedded in the center of the CDO - all signs strengthening is still happening with #Laura pic.twitter.com/R971JGPeB4
-- Michael Watkins (@watkinstrack) August 26, 2020
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262221
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Hurricane Laura, now a category 4 major hurricane, is the main
feature of the forecast. It is about 150 miles southeast of
Galveston/High Island, and while it is currently moving to the
northwest at 15 mph, it should begin to turn more northerly in the
next several hours, setting it up for a near miss to our east.
Storm surge from the nearby storm will be the primary hazard
threatening our area, followed by strong winds and heavy rain.
Tornadoes are not possible, but less likely than in other areas
affected by the storm.

After Laura has moved on, we`re looking for a return to more
typical summertime conditions, with periods of scattered showers
and thunderstorms peppered throughout the weekend and next week.
Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal as a weak
upper ridge attempts to build in over our area.


.NEAR TERM/TROPICAL [Through Thursday]...

After much tracking and careful watching, as well as a significant
round of rapid intensification, major Hurricane Laura is on our
doorstep, about 150 miles southeast of Galveston. Though the
motion in the 4pm advisory was still to the northwest, there are
hints that we may be starting to see a north-northwesterly motion,
and the expected right turn that gives our area a near miss from a
powerful hurricane may be about to begin.

This continues to give greater confidence in the forecast of
expected impacts to our area, and the surge threat is to some
extent already baked in. It`s important to note that the forecast
brings the edge of hurricane force winds right to the edge of our
area of responsibility, and a miss of any distance to the west of
the forecast point will bring a greater potential of hurricane
force winds to more of Chambers, Liberty, and Polk counties, as
well as Galveston Bay. A slightly larger miss will bring
Galveston and coastal Harris counties into the picture. For this
reason, we will be holding the hurricane warnings in place until
we are confident that Laura is making its turn as expected. If
this does occur, then we may consider a reconfiguration of the
warnings to reflect the new circumstances.

This storm is forecast to make fairly quick progress through the
region, and should be exiting off to the northeast somewhat
rapidly by tomorrow evening. Because of this, conditions should
improve at a healthy clip through the day, and we may be back to
seeing the typical summertime regime of onshore flow by late
Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. In general, we should look
for some continued chances at rain through the day tomorrow with
backside outer bands from Laura. However, short range guidance is
proving fairly unanimous in keeping our area pretty dry, while
this backside rainfall is confined to Louisiana and the Gulf of
Mexico. I am unsure how much to trust this high-res guidance that
is not really designed with hurricane modeling in mind, so I keep
chance PoPs in place through the day. Should the actual weather
bear out in keeping with the CAMs, look for PoPs to get chopped
down quite significantly.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

At the very least, a break in the upper ridge will remain in the
wake of Laura`s path through Friday night. This should allow for
modestly greater than typical instability over our area on
Friday, which could juice up showers and thunderstorms,
particularly in the afternoon during peak heating.

Since the weakness in the ridge looks to be fairly small - I don`t
think we`ll have much trouble in gaining back temperature lost to
rain and cloud cover once skies begin to clear, plus low level
onshore flow will keep humidity high and overnight lows up.
Because of this, look for temperatures to quickly rebound back to
near or higher than seasonal averages.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The main question for the long term forecast is how quickly the
upper ridge builds back over our area. There is some difference in
how this goes, but there`s general consensus in this happening at
some point on Monday or Tuesday. Interestingly enough, the GFS and
Euro play opposite their stereotypes here, with the GFS holding
weakness a little longer, while the Euro is a bit more
progressive.

At this point, and with a much more important weather feature on
my doorstep, I`m perfectly fine to go with a blend of the guidance
on this timing and let my post-hurricane PoPs peak Sunday, and
slowly fade out through the week as the ridge gradually comes
back. Of course, I keep temperatures nice and hot as we gradually
return to a stacked ridge situation. You may notice I`m saying a
lot of words that tend to match up with heat advisories when they
all happen together. I certainly won`t deny that this is possible.
However, given the certainty in the details of the post-storm
setup is not super high, and that we`re starting to pull away from
the climatologically hottest part of the year, I`m also not
terribly confident we will manage to see a heat index that high at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Aviation weather will be less than ideal as Hurricane Laura
approaches the SW LA coast later tonight. A surge of moisture
will move across area TAF sites this afternoon and bring scattered
showers and storms to most TAF sites. Will maintain a TEMPO for
the SE TAF sites this aftn. As Laura intensifies and heads north,
the moisture becomes tightly wrapped around the center and not
really expecting much precip over area TAF sites overnight. Will
maintain a VCSH out of an abundance of caution but models show a
decrease in mstr overnight and soundings don`t show any layers
saturated. Winds will be on the increase as the gradient tightens.
Will carry gust groups most sites. Improvement should commence
early Thursday with a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings becoming VFR.
Could be some aftn shra/tsra with heating on Thursday as PW values
perk back up.

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered showers are moving across the waters this morning.
Hurricane Laura has continued to intensify over the central Gulf
and is now a Category 4 major hurricane. Laura is forecast to
move towards Sabine Pass area and make landfall later tonight, but
surge is already beginning to arrive on the coast and conditions
will deteriorate through the day. The worst conditions are
expected Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Mariners
should be prepared for hurricane conditions and are urged to keep
up with the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts.

In the hurricane warning area, we can expect: South winds 30 to
40 kt in the Bay and 35 to 50 knots on the Gulf with gusts up to
65 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet nearshore, 15 to 25 feet offshore.

In the tropical storm warning area, we can expect: South winds 20
to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet near shore,
12 to 20 feet offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 97 78 99 78 / 30 30 30 30 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 80 95 80 / 40 30 40 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 92 83 91 84 / 60 40 60 60 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Galveston...Northern
Liberty...Polk...Southern Liberty.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Harris...Madison...Montgomery...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

GM...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from
20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...43
MARINE...Luchs
gregco31
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It still could wobble west, if there's anything 2020 has taught us it's that anything can happen. That said no matter where it makes landfall or goes please keep those people in your thoughts, and whenever it's safe to do so help out in anyway possible. Thank you to everyone on the board, sadly I feel like we will do this again in a few weeks. Stay safe everyone!
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jasons2k
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I'm beginning to wonder if I will see any rain at all from Laura.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:50 pm I'm beginning to wonder if I will see any rain at all from Laura.
Probably not much. I know you have a better chance than me though!
tropiKal
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It still could wobble west
Hope it does. If not, the rest of the month better deliver, or else August will be a failure.
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DoctorMu
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150 mph predicted by NHC at landfall.

https://twitter.com/ABStormChasers/stat ... 65025?s=20
biggerbyte
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Businesses closed early today. Doctors left at noon to prepare for the mess that is coming. I lost my very important doctors appointment. People evacuated. Those in Louisiana thought Texas was ground zero. We are down to 24 hours and basically moment casting. I've said it for years now that model casting is nearly useless. Sure do miss the good old days. To those of you in Louisiana our hearts and prayers go out to you. Those of us in Texas dodged a bullet even though many needed the rain. We simply have to do a better job than this in weather forecasting. It has become absolutely ridiculous.
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