August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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It needs or should start turning soon. Hurricane models don't get past 93 and it's closing in on 92 already.

Doesn't look quite nw on the recon fixes either.
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srainhoutx
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Both AF and NOAA RECON reporting rapidly falling pressure in the center. Rapid Intensifying is expected to continue this morning. I am very concerned about the storm surge in the Golden Triangle as well as Lake Charles. This Hurricane is going to be like a buzz saw moving up the Sabine Valley.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Stormlover2020
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It’s time to watch the hrr model for wobbles and satellite
Scott747
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:36 am It’s time to watch the hrr model for wobbles and satellite
Why would you need to when recon is out there?

Also it looks like it could be making a sharper turn finally.
Stormlover2020
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:41 am
Stormlover2020 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:36 am It’s time to watch the hrr model for wobbles and satellite
Why would you need to when recon is out there?

Also it looks like it could be making a sharper turn finally.

U still think tx/la border scott
Scott747
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Border or just e as long as this is the eventual NW turn.
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srainhoutx
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Laura now Major Cat 3 Hurricane. Winds 115 MPH via the 7 AM Advisory
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Snakeswx
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Nice expansion on the western side. I'm basically just watching that left edge for progress westward.. for me. Not so much the eye
Ace
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North*West?*

I’m also hearing more sustained chatter about more serious concern about a model shift W.
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Ace
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Does NHC just mean that the Tx/La border is Northwest?
weatherguy425
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Ace wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:25 am Does NHC just mean that the Tx/La border is Northwest?
It is a general term, often depending on the person who is writing. Generally, “northwest” can mean Texas and the western-half of the Louisiana coastline.
Snakeswx
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Ace wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:25 am Does NHC just mean that the Tx/La border is Northwest?
Yes
Cromagnum
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This thing means business folks.

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Scott747
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:21 pm If the models hold, I’m headed to a brick structure on Big Lake (Hackberry side). About 25 miles SSW of Lake Charles

Hackberry won't be safe. PM me if you need to....
Cromagnum
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Looking at IR posted above it looks like a pretty good wobble to the north.
weatherguy425
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:42 am Looking at IR posted above it looks like a pretty good wobble to the north.
Please be careful judging movement (west or north) using IR. Towering storms rotating around a gradual clearing eye can give very convincing illusions.
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Creepy evil grin caught overnight.

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Last edited by Cromagnum on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
Scott747
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Low level recon is going in for a third fix. Does look like a pretty decent wobble to the n. They will confirm either way here in about 15 min.
weatherguy425
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:47 am Low level recon is going in for a third fix. Does look like a pretty decent wobble to the n. They will confirm either way here in about 15 min.
With rapid deepening and an eyewall in the process of forming - unfortunately this one will be prone to wobbles, at least in the near-term.
Scott747
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weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:50 am
Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:47 am Low level recon is going in for a third fix. Does look like a pretty decent wobble to the n. They will confirm either way here in about 15 min.
With rapid deepening and an eyewall in the process of forming - unfortunately this one will be prone to wobbles, at least in the near-term.

Oh no doubt. I'm guessing that the blended motion will be nw.
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Still though those wobbles to the left are going to create some serious discomfort for Galveston and the surrounding area.
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