August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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jabcwb2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:07 pm Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge?
Their whole analysis seems to bank on today’s new “model cluster” near Beaumont.

We had a similar “model cluster” yesterday at this time in SW LA

Tomorrow that same “cluster” could be painted over Galveston if it shifts again overnight.
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
jabcwb2
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:09 pm
jabcwb2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:07 pm Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge?
Their whole analysis seems to bank on today’s new “model cluster”

We had a similar “model cluster” yesterday at this time in SW LA

Tomorrow that came “cluster” could be painted over Galveston it shifts again overnight.
Thank you so much
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jabcwb2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:07 pm Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge?
Doubtful. It’s stronger and if they did, why not say it. Model hugging is terrible.

There’s a 33% chance that it could go outside of the cone and it’s not going east of the cone. I’m confident in that.
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Its quite hot outside in front of Laura
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I was pretty surprised when I read that post on Space City Weather.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:11 pm
jabcwb2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:07 pm Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge?
Doubtful. It’s stronger and if they did, why not say it. Model hugging is terrible.

There’s a 33% chance that it could go outside of the cone and it’s not going east of the cone. I’m confident in that.
Matt is a great Met tasked with servicing millions of people. Some luxuries aren’t afforded. Calls have to be made, despite ongoing risk. It isn’t easy for them or any other Met. ;)
Last edited by weatherguy425 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Kingwood36
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anyone have any rain estimates yet?
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tireman4
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The Early 18z Models
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Zoom In Look at 18z Early Models 08 25 20.png
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jasons2k
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FWIW: Matt is a Met but Eric is not.
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tireman4
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I think they ( Space City) are basing it off of these...
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DoctorMu
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12z EPS, GEFS, GEFS-Para, GEPS are all on board a Bolivar/High Island Landfall solution...all within 40-50 miles of each other.

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tireman4
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:33 pm FWIW: Matt is a Met but Eric is not.
Correct.
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:33 pm FWIW: Matt is a Met but Eric is not.
Edited. Didn’t mean to be plural. Matt, most likely, produces the forecasts.
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What are the rainfall estimates looking like?
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DoctorMu
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FWIW, High Island has been in the true middle of the models and Ensembles since Sunday...
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Eric has a certificate from Mississippi State.
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:34 pm I think they ( Space City) are basing it off of these...
I could be mistaken, but I recall hearing that Eric got a met degree several years ago.
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:37 pm What are the rainfall estimates looking like?
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites in the SE Texas CWA.
ISO-SCT SH/TS can be expected this aft and a few sites may
experience brief MVFR to poss IFR conditions in and around TSRA.
Conditions improve this evening and skies will be able to lift and
scatter out early tonight. Winds will be E-NE today at 5-12KTS and
gusty at times...decreasing to around 5KTS tonight.

Cat 1 Hurricane Laura, now located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, will continue to track N-NW and is expected to strengthen
further as it continues to move closer to the NW Gulf Coasts. The
current NHC track forecast continues to bring the center of Laura
near the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wed night
and move inland near these areas on Thursday. Locally, expect
SH/TS to begin to move into the local Gulf waters and southern
portions of the CWA early Wed morning...as the day progresses,
conditions will deteriorate and winds will increase. At this time,
Laura is expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 (Major) Hurricane.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates on Laura.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020/

SHORT TERM[Today through Thursday Night]...

Cut to the chase. The NHC track has shifted about 30-50 miles west
of the previous track. This has necessitated expanding the Hurricane
Watch westward to include Galveston Island/Coastal mainland
Galveston/Coastal Harris/All Chambers/Southern Liberty in the
Hurricane Watch.

The 00z model runs appear to be picking up on the slightly further
west and southwest initial condition (previous runs appeared to be
getting the initial 12 hours incorrect with the center too far to
the northeast) so the track is getting shifted west. This will lead
to conditions deteriorating Wednesday as it starts it northward turn
and clips the area with strong winds as a major hurricane is
wrapping up over the Gulf south of Sabine pass and bringing tropical
storm force winds and hurricane force winds to the eastern areas.
Tide levels will be increasing quickly Wednesday as the long period
swells arrive leading to 4-6 feet for portions of Bolivar
peninsula/High Island...7+ feet east of High Island. If the track
shifts further west in subsequent forecasts those numbers will
increase substantially in and around Galveston Bay. This is solidly
a stay tuned forecast - small track changes at this point can make a
huge difference! A category 3 hurricane means business so don`t get
complacent.

Given the track the threat for heavy rainfall will ramp up Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning. 1-4" with isolated amounts 6
then in the eastern most areas of Liberty/Chambers county greater
amounts likely 4-8" isolated 12". Again the track is going to
dictate the amounts.


The threat for tornadoes looks fairly low at this time but this too
is highly dependent on the track and where that more
tornado favorable right front quadrant strikes.

As the system moves inland some drier air from Central Texas may get
absorbed and could start to shut down the heavier rain threat
Thursday by noon. Laura should continue to move north into Arkansas
late Thursday afternoon/early evening. As it moves into AR Thursday
night do anticipate that a band of deep tropical moisture will be
pulled into SETX and another round of storms will be possible.

As for the very short term expect that today will be hot with heat
indices of 102-106 and light winds with abundant sunshine until we
reach the convective temperature around 94 with rain chances mainly
east of Huntsville to Angleton line. With the dewpoints on the
increase expect that Wednesday is going to feel hotter and may flirt
with 105-109 heat indices in the central and western areas. Rain
chances toward sunrise Wednesday increasing over area especially in
the Galveston Bay area southward into the Gulf. 45/11

LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...

Even in the post tropical weather landscape, long-range models are
continuing with a rather wet forecast for SE TX. A broad upper lvl
shear axis (in the wake of Laura) is progged to linger across E/SE
TX by Fri on through the weekend. This along with daytime heating,
leftover moisture and boundaries should support scattered showers/
thunderstorms during the afternoons...despite the upper ridge from
the west trying to build in this direction.

However, by the start of next week, shortwaves moving in from the
SW along with more upper level disturbances moving in from the NW
and W will help to carve out a more distinct longwave trof across
the Central Plains. This will then allow for a cold front to move
down into the Southern Plains (and perhaps into the state) by the
middle of next week. FROPA down to the Upper TX coast will be un-
likely (as its upper support seems to trek off to the NE quickly)
but could act as a focus for slightly better POPs across northern
portions of the CWA for this time frame. 41

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Still VFR this morning and should remain so until this afternoon
with a small threat for SHRA/TSRA over the terminals from mainly UTS
southward. Expect a lull in storms after 00z then becoming more
scattered again after 09z Wednesday. Tropical storm/Hurricane
Watches are in effect and strong winds with showers and
thunderstorms will impact area terminals from UTS to IAH/HOU/GLS
mainly Wednesday starting near GLS around 18z and expanding inland
through 12z Thursday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 95 76 96 79 / 20 40 50 30 20
Houston (IAH) 78 93 78 94 79 / 20 50 70 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 81 89 83 / 50 70 80 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Galveston...Northern Liberty...Polk...
Southern Liberty.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Harris...Madison...Montgomery...
San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller.

Storm Surge Watch for the following zones: Brazoria Islands.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands.

Storm Surge Warning for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula.

GM...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Moving on from Space City Weather...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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The million dollar question is will we see another west shift tonight, like we have been, or will the nightly westward shifts stop tonight? One more shift and Galveston will be the bullseye.
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