August 2020:

[don]

12z tropical models shift west clustered between Beaumont and Houston. Expect a west shift in the track at the 11 am advisory.Wouldn't surprised me if they extended the hurricane watch further down the coast also, in the next update.

[snowman65]

12z tropical models shift west clustered between Beaumont and Houston. Expect a west shift in the track at the 11 am advisory.Wouldn't surprised me if they extended the hurricane watch further down the coast also, in the next update.

why is that so different from 6z eps emsembles?

[christinac2016]

Iskovitz on Fox said he suspects NHC advisory at 10 a.m. will shift it a little more towards us (Houston area). Yikes.

[txbear]

I had a really bad feeling those ensembles were on to something, and certainly did not want to see the updates I've been scrolling through from the overnight hours and into this morning.

[javakah]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

[don]

12z tropical models shift west clustered between Beaumont and Houston. Expect a west shift in the track at the 11 am advisory.Wouldn't surprised me if they extended the hurricane watch further down the coast also, in the next update.

why is that so different from 6z eps emsembles?

Its not drastically different but in this mornings NHC discussion they were waiting to get more model data before moving the cone. With the early 12z models shifting more west, it looks like the track will be updated to the west at the 11 am advisory.

[Kingwood36]

My dad lives in a travel trailer in clute...i gotta go help him tie that trailer down somehow

[don]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

Too early to say right now as we are not yet certain just how strong Laura will be once she makes landfall.

[Tx2005]

Well crap. I woke up to find things got worse.

[snowman65]

if it does hit Galveston, what impact changes would there be for the golden triangle (Orange)? Specifically wind and storm surge.

[sau27]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

NOT A FORECAST- but a strong landfalling hurricane in Freeport is generally regarded as worst case scenario for Houston.

[tireman4]

12 z TVCN Thursday Morning

[snowman65]

only about 36 hours til landfall. How many more shifts could there possibly be??? Gotta be some sort of consensus soon. From what I keep reading it could be anywhere between Freeport and Beaumont. That's a huge spread to be only 36 hours left....imo

[tireman4]

only about 36 hours til landfall. How many more shifts could there possibly be??? Gotta be some sort of consensus soon. From what I keep reading it could be anywhere between Freeport and Beaumont. That's a huge spread to be only 36 hours left....imo

Actually, that is a pretty compact spread, if you look at it. It will narrow as we get closer. I promise

[CypressMike]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

For any given location, it will be highly dependent upon the track (and obviously intensity). For now, look to Ike as an analogue for how the inland winds might look (but recognize it could be better or worse depending on the size and strength at landfall).

[davidiowx]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

For any given location, it will be highly dependent upon the track (and obviously intensity). For now, look to Ike as an analogue for how the inland winds might look (but recognize it could be better or worse depending on the size and strength at landfall).

Ike is a pretty good analog storm. It could be less damage or worse and time will tell throughout the day. Everyone needs to be paying very close attention to local officials and the NHC and preparing for a major hurricane impact.

[don]

So, let's say it came in at Freeport or Galveston. What would the likely inland winds be looking like?

For any given location, it will be highly dependent upon the track (and obviously intensity). For now, look to Ike as an analogue for how the inland winds might look (but recognize it could be better or worse depending on the size and strength at landfall).

Yep i was thinking the same, for reference here's a map of Ike's sustained winds over Southeast Texas. If Laura is stronger than Ike though the winds could be worse than Ike's were.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Laura should be moving faster than Ike, so if she comes ashore as a 3/4, she will most definitely have stronger winds further inland.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, remember Ike was a very large Hurricane...like Carla was in 61. Right now Laura is a bit larger than an average Hurricane. Let's see if the wind field expands as the next 24 to 36 hour unfolds. I'm still concerned that Laura may slow down as it nears the Cosst Wednesday into early Thursday.

[Tx2005]

Amazing. I went to the store to buy one quick thing and wow, it’s like a regular Tuesday morning.

People have no clue what’s coming it seems like.