August 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

Icon Sabine pass tx

[TXWeatherMan]

The 00Z models are going to be very telling

[Texashawk]

Icon Sabine pass tx

Is that a shift of any sort?

[Cpv17]

I still don’t understand how the EPS is so far west of the official track. I thought the EPS was better than that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Think of the Op as a higher resolution ensemble run. Nothing more.

It’s not that uncommon

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Icon Sabine pass tx

Is that a shift of any sort?

Probably 40-60 miles to the west

[Kingwood36]

So what models are we looking for tonight that would shift the forecast track to the west? And that the NHC would take serious enough to move the track?

[weatherguy425]

If there is agoing to be a westward shift I believe we would see it in the next couple of cycle of runs. To much data is being Incorporated.

Doesn't mean it couldn't happen later but we're getting into a window where confidence will continue to increase.

Rate of strengthening tomorrow could alter as well.

[srainhoutx]

If there is agoing to be a westward shift I believe we would see it in the next couple of cycle of runs. To much data is being Incorporated.

Doesn't mean it couldn't happen later but we're getting into a window where confidence will continue to increase.

Rate of strengthening tomorrow could alter as well.

Laura better slow down it's forward motion some if Rapid Intensifying is in its future IMO.

[AtascocitaWX]

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1297998032072572928

Wow, that's a cluster for you. So the million dollar question is how much weight does the ensembles have in the NHC forecast?

[TXWeatherMan]

So what models are we looking for tonight that would shift the forecast track to the west? And that the NHC would take serious enough to move the track?

GFS, Euro, UKMET

[weatherguy425]

If there is agoing to be a westward shift I believe we would see it in the next couple of cycle of runs. To much data is being Incorporated.

Doesn't mean it couldn't happen later but we're getting into a window where confidence will continue to increase.

Rate of strengthening tomorrow could alter as well.

Laura better slow down it's forward motion some if Rapid Intensifying is in its future IMO.

Interesting that you “say” that... there was some talk yesterday on Twitter about most-desirable speed for RI. Consensus was a 10-15 (maybe faster?) MPH speed is fine as long as system remains vertically stacked, etc. But, 20 may be pushing it.

[srainhoutx]

Rate of strengthening tomorrow could alter as well.

Laura better slow down it's forward motion some if Rapid Intensifying is in its future IMO.

Interesting that you “say” that... there was some talk yesterday on Twitter about most-desirable speed for RI. Consensus was a 10-15 (maybe faster?) MPH speed is fine as long as system remains vertically stacked, etc. But, 20 may be pushing it.

Doc Neil states that 10 to 15 mph is the optimal limit for RI. Beyond that it tough due the dynamics involved for a quick ramp up. My hunch would be a slowing down as it approaches the NW Gulf and the expected turn to the N as it move toward the Coast. We'll have plenty of time to work out those details tomorrow into Wednesday.

[cperk]

The Euro ensembles is in their minds...

Yeah no doubt about that.

[snowman65]

been driving 6 hours to Austin....trying to get caught up....are all the ensembles that showed galveston/Freeport garbage now? anyone trusting the latest nhc cone?

[weatherguy425]

Laura better slow down it's forward motion some if Rapid Intensifying is in its future IMO.

Interesting that you “say” that... there was some talk yesterday on Twitter about most-desirable speed for RI. Consensus was a 10-15 (maybe faster?) MPH speed is fine as long as system remains vertically stacked, etc. But, 20 may be pushing it.

Doc Neil states that 10 to 15 mph is the optimal limit for RI. Beyond that it tough due the dynamics involved for a quick ramp up. My hunch would be a slowing down as it approaches the NW Gulf and the expected turn to the N as it move toward the Coast. We'll have plenty of time to work out those details tomorrow into Wednesday.

Yes sir! Tomorrow will be a very important day as well... for both intensity and track as it relates to intensity.

[srainhoutx]

I will point out the Laura's impact have been felt across the Florida Keys and the Ft Myers area today with heavy squalls and gusty winds to near or TS strength. Laura is currently a little above average in size. As it gets away from Cuba, it could grow some and its wind field expand. Marco was a tiny Hurricane at its strongest.

[Kingwood36]

been driving 6 hours to Austin....trying to get caught up....are all the ensembles that showed galveston/Freeport garbage now? anyone trusting the latest nhc cone?

Nhc thinks so apparently

[tireman4]

Back home...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

While the weakening Tropical Storm Marco still exists, this
forecast is dominated by Tropical Storm Laura. The forecast brings
a near-major hurricane onshore just east of our area in Southwest
Louisiana, leaving us on a razor`s edge between major and lesser
impacts. While confidence is increasing in the forecast for this
storm, there are still important pieces of model guidance that
suggest we need to stay on our toes, and be prepared for changes
in the forecast track, potentially resulting in more significant
impact from Laura.


.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

For the meantime, the weather is actually fairly pleasant. We have
some scattered showers, almost exclusively over the Gulf of
Mexico, but all in all a pretty typical summer day. With the
decapitation of Tropical Storm Marco to our east, tomorrow will
probably look fairly similar. With the influx of the storm`s
remnant surface circulation and some boundary layer moisture, we
can expect better chances of rain over land, particularly east of
I-45, but even then - I`d expect something that`s smacks more of a
typical summer day than a tropical cyclone.

If Laura moves faster than expected, we may start to see showers
from the outer edge of the storm`s moisture envelope start to
spread over the nearshore Gulf waters and begin to encroach on the
coast...but for Laura, the real show holds off for the long term
portion of this forecast.


.LONG TERM/TROPICAL [Wednesday Through Monday]...

The portion of the forecast dominated by Laura is fraught with
peril, as the NHC forecast puts us just west of a landfalling
high-end Category 2 hurricane. This area, like it so frequently
is, features a very sharp gradient between significant impact and
a more gentle treatment. Giving some comfort is the consolidation
of the forecast guidance on the NHC track, giving us greater
certainty in the official forecast. We surely cannot sleep on this
storm, as even a small westward shift in track and/or a
significant increase in the hurricane wind field could change our
expected impacts for the worse. Indeed, the Euro ensemble
stubbornly refuses to hop on board with the SW Louisiana idea, so
we will have to continue to watch carefully, and prepare for quick
action if the forecast changes.

With all of those disclaimers, here are our expectations given the
official forecast. Please check NHC products and local hurricane
statements for more details and the latest information:

Storm Surge - Potentially life threatening surge could be seen in
locations from San Luis Pass up the coast. Up to 2 to 4 feet of
surge could be seen as a worst case on Gulf-facing portion of
Galveston Island, and up to 4 to 6 feet on the Bolivar Peninsula
and Chambers Island coast. Some coastal flooding issues could be
seen from high surf and wave run-up further down the coast
towards Matagorda Bay.

Wind - The highest threat for our area to see damaging hurricane
winds will be on the Gulf waters offshore of Galveston Bay, as
well as on the Bolivar Peninsula and eastern Chambers County. Much
of the rest of the area will see an elevated risk of tropical
storm winds on the west side of the storm.

Tornadoes - It`s too early to say with much specificity, but the
greatest tornado threat tends to be in the right front quadrant of
the storm, east of the storm`s center. Given that we are likely to
be on the west side of the storm, tornado threat should be lower.

Flooding Rains - Thanks to the storm`s expected consistent motion
and our position on the west side of the storm, our concern for
flooding rains is relatively low, particularly given our...recent
history. That said, training bands on the outer portion of the
storm could still provide an elevated risk of heavy rain and flash
flooding in the eastern part of our area, east of I-45.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Fairly straightforward TAFs this cycle, mainly to account for
diurnal wind shifts. Some MVFR-level clouds may pop up overnight
as more moisture moves into the area from the east, but ceilings
are more likely to be east of all terminals for this forecast
period. Showers and storms should stay mainly offshore, so no
mention of rain explicitly, but an isolated shower or two may pop
up over land as well.

&&

.MARINE...

Though Marco is rapidly making itself a minor part of the weather
forecast, some marine impacts are already baked in as swell
propagates into our waters from the east. Seas of 3 to 5 feet can
be expected into tonight, before waves briefly go into a lull
ahead of the arrival of Laura`s swell.

Early Wednesday morning, look for seas to increase again as Laura
approaches, with seas building as high as 7 to 14 feet late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the NHC track
holds, seas will begin to very, very slowly subside after
midnight. Though the highest waves will subside by Thursday
morning, SCEC to Advisory-level seas will persist deep into the
week. This forecast is obviously dominated by the track and
strength of Laura, and are subject to change significantly if that
forecast changes.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 75 97 76 95 76 / 10 20 20 40 30
Houston (IAH) 77 96 77 94 78 / 10 30 20 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 90 82 / 10 30 50 70 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM/TROPICAL...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[Scott747]

GFS is ever so slightly to the w and s.