TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[srainhoutx]

I noticed buoy 42055 is reporting light NW winds.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye near 24N / 93W. High RES VIS Imagery suggests a Low Level Circulation...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[ticka1]

From the tone on alot of other boards - 96L was dead and folks where say NEXT or looking for 97L.

I'm watching and waiting on the rain.

[wink1968]

From the tone on alot of other boards - 96L was dead and folks where say NEXT or looking for 97L.

I'm watching and waiting on the rain.

Then others are saying it COULD become a minimal TS as there is a LCC...Go figure!

[sambucol]

It's raining here. Thunder and lightning, too.

[MRG93415]

Downtown Houston fixing to get it........

[ticka1]

Downtown Houston fixing to get it........

Agree.

[biggerbyte]

Just like with Alex, the models have swung back to their starting point of Mexico with whatever this mess is, or might later be. I'm curious if anyone thinks the models are wrong with this event, and why they think it. This was some chatter about this yesterday. The models have not budged. I can see wxman's reasoning. So, what is up today?

[sleetstorm]

Tropical convection has nicely blossomed this morning.

[biggerbyte]

I suspect this trend will continue today. 96l is still fighting a couple of enemies, one being time, unless he decides to defy the models and move more northward.

[sleetstorm]

Today's rain not directly related to 96L.


Evidence of a broad and poorly defined low level center mostly West of the deeper storms on homemade NASA satellite visual loop.


I think 30% of a TD today, but only if they send the aircraft. The NOAA plane is sending HDOBs, but not exacty from where I'd want them to...

If they canc the USAFR recon, this'll have to become a painfully obvious TS on satellite with buoy and ship reports, which cuts odds to 20%.

IMHO.


Edit to add- 30% chance it becomes an unofficial TC, 10% chance NHC ever declares it a TC

3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1220Z.

Are you saying that if that thing in the Gulf of Mexico is never officially declared a tropical depression or tropical storm by the USAFR reconnaisance plane that it will be a tropical cyclone, Ed? I am just trying to understand.

[biggerbyte]

From what I see from radar, the center of circulation? appears to be in the northern portion of all the storm activity. Also, this all looks to be heading N.W. towards the lower and middle Texas coast. I suspect as the day progresses the models will all swing north again. Saying again, the more north this moves, the longer it will be over water, and warmer water at that. iWatch is in order.

Stay tuned, folks..

[Hardcoreweather]

Wish the rain would shift east cause we could use some over here in Alabama

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 300
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N95W NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 23N93W TO 21N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO S OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 90W-96W...AND
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ALONG THE SRN TEXAS COASTLINE. THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES NE MEXICO OR SE
TEXAS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT.

[wxdata]

HPC's QPF discussion-

SFC DATA SHOWS AN ELONGATED SFC TROF OVER THE WRN GULF AND PSBL
EMBDD WEAK SFC CIRCS..WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SHWRS AND TSTMS
CONTINUING TO WORK THEIR WAY WNWWD TOWARD THE TX COAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EMBDD WITHIN A VERY DEEP PLUME OF HI PWS WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TX IN THE ELY FLOW AROUND UPR RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MODELS SHOW A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH PSBL
LOW PRES DVLPMENT..SEE FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NHC..BUT WITH OR
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DVLPMENT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TX COAST NWD INTO NRN TX. GFS LOOKS
SURPRISINGLY UNDERDONE CONSIDERING THE HI AVAILABLE MSTR..AND HAVE
GENLY LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF NAM AND IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

[Scott747]

Continues to look marginally better and slowly organizing is a good description of 96. King Euro once again is the leader of the pack though the parallel GFS was generally in the same camp.

King Euro hints at unsettled weather across the Caribbean and into the Gulf starting Friday thru Wednesday of next week.

Might not be long before looking yet again at the same area.

[MRG93415]

It is one scarry looking sky downtown and it is going to pour down here in a minute...

[redfish1]

so i guess this thing is on a clear cut path to south texas and isnt going to make any turns north....am i right or wrong????

[weatherguy425]

There has been talk that due to the wront initilization of the ULL over texas, that models may start trending north ( which is happening) but with a system like this, no matter where it makes "landfall" A LOT of people are going to get A LOT of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Appears the steering current will keep this moving WNW unless something happens near the TX/MX border. With that said, heavy rainfall will again likely be the main story with this disturbance. I also suspect we may very well have a depression now if not a bit later this afternoon/evening.