August 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

Will they make track any different

[Tx2005]

Isn’t that way off of what the NHC shows for the update it just posted?

[Scott747]

0z Euro may track further w. It's not showing Marco any longer to interact with.

A much weaker Marco I should add.

[DoctorMu]

Marco has decoupled and could be down to a swirl by morning.

Doesn’t that favor a more eastern track for Laura then? I don’t remember where, but I thought I read that stronger Marco = stronger Laura with more western track and vice versa.

Mets believe there will be no effect on Laura. Laura's strength does matter.

If she is weaker, then that favors an eastern solution. If Laura continues south of Cuba and builds strength going into the GoM, then that favors a western solution. Models right now are baffled. UKmet is one of the few that initialized well.

[Scott747]

Yup. Euro going to be further w.

[DoctorMu]

Before Marco swirls off into oblivion, he and Laura share a broken band of showers.

[DoctorMu]

Yup. Euro going to be further w.

Damn - Beaumont.

[Belmer]

00z Euro weaker than last nights, but much further west and stronger than 12/18z.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_4.png

[Tx2005]

Well I’m assuming NHC will be moving the track back near us since the Euro is back in our direction.

One question regarding this potential southern relocation. How would that potentially affect the track? I’m assuming further west, but how far to the west? Does that place locations like Matagorda and Corpus in play?

[Stormlover2020]

Free port

[DoctorMu]

Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.



WMBas76.png

I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.

[HurricaneMike]

As of 2am, Laura is now over the Caribbean Sea south of eastern Cuba. Looks like Stewart has the 5am discussion.

[DoctorMu]

[Stormlover2020]

So does nhc shift it back west ?

[Belmer]

Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.



WMBas76.png

I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.

I removed it because I didn't want to cause anymore confusion than what there is. That was from a couple hours ago so isn't real time, but still indicates that the center isn't quite where the NHC has it according to that pass. However, there is some vorticity where the NHC does have the center at and I see a storm is popping up right around it.

[don]

So does nhc shift it back west ?

It probably depends on what the 6z tropical models show.

[DoctorMu]

Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.



WMBas76.png

I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.

I removed it because I didn't want to cause anymore confusion than what there is. That was from a couple hours ago so isn't real time, but still indicates that the center isn't quite where the NHC has it according to that pass. However, there is some vorticity where the NHC does have the center at and I see a storm is popping up right around it.

It's 2020, so par for the course.

The global windmap has a vorticy near that pop up storm just south of Cuba. The main convection is riding that trough pointing towards Marco - the trough being farther south of Cuba.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.51,2738

[TXWeatherMan]

Well I’m assuming NHC will be moving the track back near us since the Euro is back in our direction.

One question regarding this potential southern relocation. How would that potentially affect the track? I’m assuming further west, but how far to the west? Does that place locations like Matagorda and Corpus in play?

Matagorda still has a chance, Corpus Christi probably not.

[Scott747]

Euro ensembles are even more spread out but not only favor Texas but the mean is over Bolivar. Not sure how they won't shift the track back further w.

That's even without the possible relocation.

[Scott747]

4 am is sticking with the original center and a shift on the track towards the border.