TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[Hardcoreweather]

00
ABNT20 KNHC 062355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[redfish1]

so are we in the clear now if this was to form into something cause i see they mentioned it would be moving WNW for the next couple of days???

[srainhoutx]

Actually not surprised to see an slight increase to 40% with the P-3 RECON data.

[ronyan]

so are we in the clear now if this was to form into something cause i see they mentioned it would be moving WNW for the next couple of days???

Well someone call me out if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure it won't be clear here when this is moving in.

[Ptarmigan]

I think we could have Bonnie. At most I a tropical storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Email from Jeff Lindner today:

And here we go again....

Well defined tropical system moved inland yesterday over SC LA and is now moving toward SE TX producing flooding rainfall while next tropical wave over the Yucatan Channel has developed into a broad area of low pressure and will head for the lower/middle TX coast Thursday.

Threat for excessive rainfall and flooding will be possible tonight-Friday morning.

LA System:

Will first focus on the small low NNE of Lake Charles this morning which moved inland yesterday near lower Vermillion Bay and has taken on semi-tropical characteristics. This small but potent system is moving westward and along with its progression will come deep tropical moisture with KLCH sounding showing 2.4" PWS this morning. Should see this very moist air mass spread into SE TX from east to west this afternoon. Feel squalls/bands will develop in NW to SE fashion on the west side of this low this afternoon and then weaken toward sun set with the stage being set for a nocturnal core rain near the center of this low tonight. Best try right now is for any core rains to be focused over our N and E counties along and E of I-45...but it could be a touch more westward. This surface low will be NNW of SE TX on Wednesday opening the moisture feed off the Gulf into the region. Expect widespread rains...heavy at times to develop. With wet grounds run-off will be likely with hourly rainfall rates on the order of 2-4".

96L:

As the LA low moves west of our region Wednesday PM...here comes 96L about 24 hours later. Models have really backed off on developing any low level circulation and current satellite images suggest a highly disorganized system. However upper level winds will be favorable and it is possible something may attempt to spin up as the system moves NW across the Gulf toward the lower/middle TX coast. Wave axis/weak surface reflection should arrive into the middle coast Thursday with tremendous moisture advection on the NE side of this potential tropical system. Models really peg the middle/upper TX coast with significant rainfall starting late Wednesday and into much of Thursday. Not sure if this is what will play out...if a surface low forms...the rainfall may be focused more down the coast toward Matagorda Bay...if it remains an open wave...then more heavy rains up the coast toward Galveston into SW LA.

Will need to bump up winds and seas even with the system remaining an open wave and once again be concerned with tidal issues. Could see tides back to the 4.0 ft mark by late Wed/early Thurs.

Rainfall:

Hard to determine where, when, and how much it will rain, but the factors will be in play for some significant amounts tonight-early Friday morning. Track of LA low tonight will focus the rains near this feature through Wed afternoon and then 96L will be approaching from the SE (possibly as a TD or TS). The more defined 96L becomes the more focused the rain will be around its center...best estimate at this time points toward a weak TS at best with much of the rains NE of any center given the upper low over the western Gulf likely imparting some SW shear over any low level center that develops...a classic western Gulf weak/sheared tropical system.

Gulf Oil:

Easterly winds with Alex over the northern Gulf helped push some of the oil westward. Once again easterly winds will develop over the northern Gulf...possibly a little stronger than Alex. These easterlies will help transport some of the oil westward toward SC LA and SW LA and potentially as far west as SE TX. There is much uncertainty on how such a tropical system will/could impact the oil over the open water.

Note: I will be out on vacation starting tomorrow through July 16th...there will be no additional e-mails on the above mentioned threats. Additional information can be obtained from the your local National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center.

I have not heard of any core rain events being mentioned. Of course you never know about them.

[rain]

Hi all..I have been reading weather underground and they are all pretty much saying this won't be a storm and it won't have much room to grow. What I am understanding is the most anyone will see is rain. Am I correct?

[Paul]

it has the look and building convection after sunset is telling IMO....their was a reason that P3 went snooping around out there close to the MLC. What I dont like is that fact if it does develope how fast...

[Snowman]

earlier today wxman said this storm would head more our way and the current models are incorrect does anyone share this opinion?

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

[biggerbyte]

That graphic pretty much sums up what Wxman was speaking of earlier.

[Snowman]

yes all of the models have the low that just moved out of louisiana way too far south and apparently according to wxman that is what is causing them to send invest 96L farther south than it really will go

[ticka1]

96L has lost all convection.

[Hardcoreweather]

95L looked better than 96L will ever look . Somebody bring Bones out

[Scott747]

95L looked better than 96L will ever look . Somebody bring Bones out

Wait till the models trend N.

Betcha it would start looking better all of a sudden.

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 885cb7.jpg

[Scott747]

At least the HWRF has stayed somewhat consistent in track for a cycle of runs -

[Scott747]

Can you believe this Tyler...

HGX with a FF watch ahead of the system.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXFFAHGX

[sleetstorm]

What is that spin in the Gulf of Mexico, the mid level low?

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise over the Gulf...