August 2020:

[don]

0z Euro Ensembles...

[Cpv17]

0z Euro Ensembles...

Oh my lord.. that’s terrifying.

[Scott747]

It's hard to track at night and without recon but it looks like it's barely gaining any lat and will come off of Hispaniola to the s of Cuba.

[Andrew]

It's hard to track at night and without recon but it looks like it's barely gaining any lat and will come off of Hispaniola to the s of Cuba.

And based off GFS steering there will likely be a pretty strong upper-level ridge over the NE gulf so your normal logic of stronger=more of a northerly route won't necessarily apply here and could indicate a further west projection.

[Tx2005]

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area.

It’s going to be pretty damn chaotic if come Monday, we are in the center of the cone and a major hurricane is projected with just a few days to spare.

I wonder how county officials are going to handle an evacuation in that scenario. We can’t have a repeat of the Rita evacuation but we also know what can happen if people panic.

The alarming aspect is Ed Emmett won’t be in charge of this emergency.

Hopefully Lina Hidalgo is up to the task. Talk about a trial by fire.

[Kingwood36]

Man...something was telling me to wake up and check the runs but I ignored it..finally gave in and holy hell...when did Armageddon break loose?

[Kingwood36]

Laura has continued to move west-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 285/16 kt. There has been a significant
westward shift in the latest NHC model guidance, which appears to be
due to most of the global models taking the center of Laura farther
south over central or southern Hispaniola rather than emerging it
off the north coast of Haiti like the GFS is and has been
forecasting. Given that the most intense convection has persisted
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, that is where the most
likely area that a low-level and/or mid-level circulation is most
probable to develop or persist. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution
similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the
new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the
consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the
north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based
observed satellite trends since the previous advisory.

[Tx2005]

Reading the forecast, it sounds like baring a model shift or the storm tracking more north (which they mention is not as likely given how Laura looks on satellite), I imagine SE Texas will be in the bullseye by 4 pm.

Also it looks like they are still projecting a Cat 2, but also mention conditions are ripe for strengthening in the Gulf.

[Tx2005]

6z GFS shifted a bit to the east over into SW LA with 954 mb near landfall.

Just for comparison, the 0z run had Laura hitting a bit east of Galveston at 959 mb.

[Cpv17]

Yeah it looks like the latest 06z GFS is into Cameron, LA. Decent shift east from 00z. ICON slight east shift as well.

[Stormlover2020]

6z GFS shifted a bit to the east over into SW LA with 954 mb near landfall.

Just for comparison, the 0z run had Laura hitting a bit east of Galveston at 959 mb.

18z and 6z don’t have all data it barley shifted East u prob won’t see it shift much East that was barley a shift

[unome]

5 day QPF shows approx 1/4-1/2" for much of our area, except that lighter green spot... must be Jason's house

p120i - Copy.gif

[Stormlover2020]

Hmon headed to Galveston it looks like

[cperk]

I'm beginning to wonder if Laura's center is really over land that is an impressive looking storm.

[cperk]

Hmon headed to Galveston it looks like

Look like it may be the TX/LA border it took a nice jump north between hours 93 and 96 that looked unusual.

[Stormlover2020]

Hwrf headed towards texas

[cperk]

Hwrf shifted west to what appears to be theTX/LA border.

[Stormlover2020]

Man o man

[cperk]

Hwrf and Hmon shifted west to what appears to be theTX/LA border.

[Texaspirate11]

Couldn't we still be on the dry side if it hits tx la border/