August 2020:

[Tx2005]

Wow, massive shift in the GFS for Marco, and it looks like Laura is much further north on this run so far.

I believe the Euro overnight also had a massive eastern shift for Marco and ended up having both hit LA.

[Tx2005]

Looks like the GFS has Laura with landfall southwest of New Orleans as a borderline Cat 2/3 at 964 mb (central LA).

Very similar landfall spots for both storms. Marco SE LA landfall as a TS. Laura Central LA landfall as a cat 2/3.

[tireman4]

Long way to go gang. Just watch the models, so where they are going...look for a trend. Will not know until at least 3 to 4 days out. Models will flip flop.

[cperk]

I'm gonna need more bourbon.

[AtascocitaWX]

So I thought the ridge was forcasting to be Strong and push the storms westward? Why the are the models shifting back East?

[Cromagnum]

Long way to go gang. Just watch the models, so where they are going...look for a trend. Will not know until at least 3 to 4 days out. Models will flip flop.

We are within 3 days out if Marco is suppose to hit Tuesday.

[Rip76]

I'm gonna need more bourbon.

I understand

[Kingwood36]

Damn and I just went and spent 150 on supplies lol...always happends

[Katdaddy]

I will take a shift E to LA but still need to watch Marco

[tireman4]

Long way to go gang. Just watch the models, so where they are going...look for a trend. Will not know until at least 3 to 4 days out. Models will flip flop.

We are within 3 days out if Marco is suppose to hit Tuesday.

And there will be more flip flops..that is the "projected" land fall. Things can change.

[tireman4]

From Wxman 57 ( I am sure he will not mind me posting it here) on S2K

Small storms like Marco tend to strengthen very rapidly but they weaken just as rapidly when that enhanced outflow from the trof turns into strong wind shear. Unless that shear does its job and starts weakening Marco by tonight/tomorrow morning, we could see a sunrise landfall in SE LA. We've known that a stronger storm goes north, a weaker one goes west to TX (or MX). I'm betting on shear hitting Marco harder than NHC track indicates. It may have only a short life as a hurricane. I'm fine with a LA landfall. Not forecasting that yet, though. Freeport, TX, currently. May not be much of it left by then, though.

[Texaspirate11]

I said before Louisiana could get both

[Cromagnum]

As long as we get some damned rain over here from one of these. It would be totally fitting if both of these go east of here and scorch us some more.

[srainhoutx]

RECON vortex message suggests Marco now has a closed eyewall about 10 miles across. They are about to make one more center pass.

It's important to note that the high altitude G-IV mission for Marco ended around 13 to 14Z this morning. They sampled around Marco and off the Coast of Louisiana and Texas including just N of the Bay of Campeche.

[Cpv17]

I said before Louisiana could get both

My original prediction for Marco was LA.

[weatherguy425]

Hi guys!

Long-time lurker and infrequent poster. I’m a Meteorologist in Savannah, Georgia, but I’m originally from Houston. I caution getting too relaxed, especially with Laura. Operational models may suggest one thing, but ensembles - especially the EPS - suggest another. A pretty stout extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to build into the southeastern U.S. A more westward track through the GOM is entirely still on the table with Laura.

No reason to complain about the lack of rain just yet.

[Rip76]

Welcome back.

[weatherguy425]

Welcome back.

Thanks!

[Cpv17]

The only reason the models have shifted east today is because Marco is strengthening a lot more than anticipated but if it starts to wind down again then the models will shift back west again I’m pretty sure. I don’t expect the NHC to shift their track much.

[DoctorMu]

Euro with the double barreled Lake Charles landing.