INVEST 95L GOM Back to Code yellow but who really knows

[biggerbyte]

Watch this little fella..

Scenario:

Ridge builds in ahead of 96l, but also pushing little engine westward, staying over water until he goes inland over S.E Texas or far S.W. LA..

[redfish1]

so its not done yet...now i wander if it get TS status before making landfall?

[kellybell4770]

ok, so this thing went from "practically NO chance of becoming anything tropical to 60% chance as it moves on shore? I hope those people in LA thought enough to prepare anyway

Prepare for scattered thunderstorms?

And gusty winds..

sorry - didn't realize it was just thunderstorms - many people made it sound worse than that

[redfish1]

is it possible we could be looking at a tropical depression or storm at our front door in the morning?

[Andrew]

is it possible we could be looking at a tropical depression or storm at our front door in the morning?

Anything is possible but it seems to be moving WNW-NW so that would put the center in SW LA and continue it in that direction which should push it to the NE of us. So I don't think we should have a problem in the morning.

[redfish1]

northeast of us here in port arthur?

[Andrew]

northeast of us here in port arthur?

Ohh didn't see that you were in port Author. Now that is closer and yes you could see the effects of 95L but luckily the worst case scenario for this storm is rain. It might be a TD or so but shouldn't be that bad. According to the NHC the center has made landfall but that does not look true.

[redfish1]

northeast of us here in port arthur?

Ohh didn't see that you were in port Author. Now that is closer and yes you could see the effects of 95L but luckily the worst case scenario for this storm is rain. It might be a TD or so but shouldn't be that bad. According to the NHC the center has made landfall but that does not look true.

i agree it looks to be moving west and is still offshore and gaining strength...what do you think?

[Andrew]

northeast of us here in port arthur?

Ohh didn't see that you were in port Author. Now that is closer and yes you could see the effects of 95L but luckily the worst case scenario for this storm is rain. It might be a TD or so but shouldn't be that bad. According to the NHC the center has made landfall but that does not look true.

i agree it looks to be moving west and is still offshore and gaining strength...what do you think?

It does look better. Very lopsided but looks better. It is an extremely small system so it is a hit or a miss there is no middle ground. I don't think there is to much to worry about as it will at most be a TD or TS (unless something amazing happens which could happen) and due to its small size shouldn't cause much of any flooding.

[redfish1]

convection really starting to wrap around the center now!

[Hardcoreweather]

Best looking INVEST of the 2010 storm season! We are] not worthy !!!!

[Hardcoreweather]

8am


A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

[Hardcoreweather]

Mesoscale Discussion 1213
< Previous MD
MD 1213 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 061215Z - 061515Z

LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE -- CENTERED JUST E LCH BASED ON
SFC/VWP/PROFILER DATA...IR SATELLITE AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
-- IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LA TOWARD SE TX.
AS THIS OCCURS...EXPANDING BAND OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD SHIFT WNWWD OVER DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME INLAND GROWTH.
RATES 1.5-2.5 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN EMBEDDED HEAVIER
CORES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR.

INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW 2-2.5 INCHES BASED ON AVAILABLE RAOBS AND GPS
DATA -- SUPPORTING EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION IN ANY
PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY FOCUS -- BOTH FOR
DEEP TSTMS AND WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES -- SHOULD BE CURVING CONVERGENCE
BAND OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. AXIS OF THIS BAND WAS
LOCATED 65-70 NM FROM CENTER AS OF 12Z. TRACKING OF LOW-CLOUD AND
SMALL/SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY ELEMENTS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
CU/TCU INDICATE PRESENCE OF NARROW/25-35 KT LLJ ALONG AND JUST E OF
THIS BAND...AND ENHANCING BOTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. THIS AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN LCH-SIL VWP AND
RAOBS AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-SAMPLED BY EITHER...SO ANY SUCH
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY NOT NECESSARILY SHOW UP IN
OBSERVATIONAL INPUT TO MODEL GUIDANCE.

LIKELY PRESENCE OF MESOBETA SCALE/850-MB JET...ATOP 5-10 KT ELY SFC
WINDS E OF CONVECTIVE BAND...ALSO INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD
0-1 KM AND EFFECTIVE SRH 200-250 J/KG OVER BTR REGION WWD INTO TSTM
BAND. SIL RAOB WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVEN YIELDED 200 J/KG
0-1 KM SRH...THOUGH MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP/EFFECTIVE SHEAR EACH ARE
WEAK. WHILE POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL...AND SECONDARY TO
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN TERMS OF OVERALL HAZARD...A SUPERCELL AND BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MRGL/2% PROBABILITY AREA IS BEING
ADDED TO DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2010


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007061248
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
927 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF METAIRIE...
WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
METAIRIE BY 935 AM CDT...

[Hardcoreweather]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

Quote:
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0922 AM FLOOD LYDIA 29.92N 91.78W
07/06/2010 IBERIA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

IBERIA PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 18 ROADS
IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AROUND THE
PARISH.

[Hardcoreweather]

Did 95L have a baby ?

[kellybell4770]

Did 95L have a baby ?

ROFLMBO

[Ptarmigan]

Did 95L have a baby ?

Welcome to the world, possible Invest 97L.