August 2020:

[ccbluewater]

What a forecast the NHC has on their hands! Extremely antsy wanting to see where the next few days lead..

[Cromagnum]

HWRF has Laura as a CAT 5 in the GoM.

HWRF almost always overdoes it with intensity forecasts.

[Cpv17]

HWRF has Laura as a CAT 5 in the GoM.

HWRF almost always overdoes it with intensity forecasts.

Yes it does. That’s 100% true. It often initializes storms stronger than what it actually is.

[don]

Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.

I'm expecting the track to settle in between Freeport and Rockport.

That's exactly what i was thinking also. If the models meet in the middle between the eastern solution of the tropical models and the more southern solution the global models show. Landfall would be around the Port Aransas/Matagorda Bay region.

[snowman65]

Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.

I'm expecting the track to settle in between Freeport and Rockport.

That's exactly what i was thinking also. If the models meet in the middle between the eastern solution of the tropical models and the more southern solution the global models show. Landfall would be around the Port Aransas/Matagorda Bay region.

Well, just my gut but I'm starting to get more concerned with Laura than TD14.....hmmm

[DoctorMu]

HWRF has Laura as a CAT 5 in the GoM.

HWRF almost always overdoes it with intensity forecasts.

Yes it does. That’s 100% true. It often initializes storms stronger than what it actually is.

Good point - having said that the sudden general agreement on a more westerly track for Laura is going to keep the NHC hopping...and possibly the rest of us.

[redneckweather]

We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.

Come on fall weather!

Absolutely False. The SARS-CoV 2 virus disagrees. Masks have helped to stabilize cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We're about to see a massive surge in about 2-4 weeks with schools and universities spreading.

It's relevant because socially distancing in a hurricane, including shelters could be difficult...if we need a massive evacuation, then hotels become spreader vessels.

[disclosure: One of my brothers is an MD, 25 year Marine/Navy conservative Republican, and helped write the Pandemic Handbook while part of the NSC. He's been highly critical of the Fed slow response, certain Governor response, and reopening of Universities in states like Texas]

To wit, the positive testing rate for COVID-19 is 20% in Texas, including Houston. The CDC threshold for safety is ≤5%.

100% FALSE. You do know the death rate across the United States is below epidemic criteria don't you?That is 100% FACT. 99% of the masks you see people wearing don't even work. Do your homework.

[Scott747]

I've seen some pretty drastic shifts from cycle to cycle, but this one from 12z to 18z is a doozy.

NHC could shift Laura all the way to Central Louisiana with the upper Texas coast in the cone. Still doubt they would make that big of a shift....

[Kingwood36]

We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.

Come on fall weather!

Absolutely False. The SARS-CoV 2 virus disagrees. Masks have helped to stabilize cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We're about to see a massive surge in about 2-4 weeks with schools and universities spreading.

It's relevant because socially distancing in a hurricane, including shelters could be difficult...if we need a massive evacuation, then hotels become spreader vessels.

[disclosure: One of my brothers is an MD, 25 year Marine/Navy conservative Republican, and helped write the Pandemic Handbook while part of the NSC. He's been highly critical of the Fed slow response, certain Governor response, and reopening of Universities in states like Texas]

To wit, the positive testing rate for COVID-19 is 20% in Texas, including Houston. The CDC threshold for safety is ≤5%.

100% FALSE. You do know the death rate across the United States is below epidemic criteria don't you?That is 100% FACT. 99% of the masks you see people wearing don't even work. Don't your homework.

Can we keep this about weather rather than the viris we are all sick of hearing about it...lol

[srainhoutx]

Let's leave the China Virus chit chat out of our weather discussions...

Looks like the track guidance is beginning to shift West.

[redneckweather]

Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.

That would a great track for us here in Southeast Texas. Let's see if it holds.

[tireman4]

We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.

Come on fall weather!

Absolutely False. The SARS-CoV 2 virus disagrees. Masks have helped to stabilize cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We're about to see a massive surge in about 2-4 weeks with schools and universities spreading.

It's relevant because socially distancing in a hurricane, including shelters could be difficult...if we need a massive evacuation, then hotels become spreader vessels.

[disclosure: One of my brothers is an MD, 25 year Marine/Navy conservative Republican, and helped write the Pandemic Handbook while part of the NSC. He's been highly critical of the Fed slow response, certain Governor response, and reopening of Universities in states like Texas]

To wit, the positive testing rate for COVID-19 is 20% in Texas, including Houston. The CDC threshold for safety is ≤5%.

100% FALSE. You do know the death rate across the United States is below epidemic criteria don't you?That is 100% FACT. 99% of the masks you see people wearing don't even work. Don't your homework.

Guys stay on topic, please. You can DM each other about this. Thank you

[biggerbyte]

Unless Laura is forecasted to come in wearing a mask I hope we can stay on topic. Could be a serious situation for someone in the gulf. Can't be mucking up the conversation. Know what I mean? LOL

[snowman65]

Let's leave the China Virus chit chat out of our weather discussions...

Looks like the track guidance is beginning to shift West.

Wow...so that's actually showing both storms to make landfall in the same area???

[DoctorMu]

We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.

Come on fall weather!

Absolutely False. The SARS-CoV 2 virus disagrees. Masks have helped to stabilize cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We're about to see a massive surge in about 2-4 weeks with schools and universities spreading.

It's relevant because socially distancing in a hurricane, including shelters could be difficult...if we need a massive evacuation, then hotels become spreader vessels.

[disclosure: One of my brothers is an MD, 25 year Marine/Navy conservative Republican, and helped write the Pandemic Handbook while part of the NSC. He's been highly critical of the Fed slow response, certain Governor response, and reopening of Universities in states like Texas]

To wit, the positive testing rate for COVID-19 is 20% in Texas, including Houston. The CDC threshold for safety is ≤5%.

100% FALSE. You do know the death rate across the United States is below epidemic criteria don't you?That is 100% FACT. 99% of the masks you see people wearing don't even work. Do your homework.

Please take this off-line/off site. You are way out of your depth. (fwiw, the US is infected by the Euro strain of the virus)

[jabcwb2]

Hello all,

As the weather starts ramping up and folks are leaving comments about the wind gusts in the area or the amount of rain they are getting, it would be really nice to know "what area" you are in. Would you all please take a moment to update your area of town so those of us stay in the know who depend greatly on this forum and the phenomenal brains that keep us informed? Please and THANK YOU!!!!

[txbear]

Let's leave the China Virus chit chat out of our weather discussions...

Looks like the track guidance is beginning to shift West.

Dang near spit out my beverage seeing these spaghetti models, srain.

jasons2k already posted it, but "this escalated quickly"

[tireman4]

This will be a weekend roller coaster. I cannot wait for Fall and Srain's immortal words. "Stepping down"...

[srainhoutx]

This will be a weekend roller coaster. I cannot wait for Fall and Srain's immortal words. "Stepping down"...

Actually where I am it "stepped down" this week... It's been in the upper 50's for lows and the mid/upper 60's for highs and rainy in the Smokey Mountains.

I will say that the RECON data has likely helped the models and that will continue. The first G-IV high altitude synoptic mission for Laura is about to fly. Another is scheduled for future Marco along with a lot of AF C-130 missions. Also various NWS WFO's began every 6 hour balloon launches this afternoon. All that data will come in handy and provide a clearer picture of what can be expected.

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensembles

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

A lot show Texas